ATL: IRENE - Remnants - Discussion

[Radiogirltx]

Old black and white news reel from 1938, and the aftermath of the Long Island Express.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=M9Rnlnm_ ... ata_player

[CronkPSU]

eye is completely gone in the 4:00UTC frame...

[NC George]

By nc_george at 2011-08-24

This pic shows the windfield along with the projected path. The TS force winds are at most contained in the light green line, and more than likely directly W fron the storm's center they are even further away from Florida than that. As you can see, they don't expect TS force winds in your area, therefore you don't get a TS watch or warning.

[Sanibel]

Latest GFS hits Delaware/ Cape May...

[artist]

000
UZNT13 KNHC 250414
XXAA 75037 99240 70760 08046 99978 25605 01069 00699 ///// /////
92488 22401 02108 85223 19202 04103 70884 12805 03562 88999 77999
31313 09608 80300
61616 AF302 1709A IRENE OB 19
62626 EYEWALL 315 SPL 2393N07604W 0304 MBL WND 01595 AEV 20802 DL
M WND 03586 977697 WL150 01082 084 REL 2401N07598W 030002 SPG 239
4N07605W 030405 =
XXBB 75038 99240 70760 08046 00978 25605 11850 19202 22765 16603
33697 12405
21212 00978 01069 11967 01087 22964 01086 33954 01592 44930 01611
55922 02104 66915 03106 77895 03094 88885 03105 99861 03604 11856
03600 22850 04103 33788 04588 44760 04564 55697 03562
31313 09608 80300
61616 AF302 1709A IRENE OB 19
62626 EYEWALL 315 SPL 2393N07604W 0304 MBL WND 01595 AEV 20802 DL
M WND 03586 977697 WL150 01082 084 REL 2401N07598W 030002 SPG 239
4N07605W 030405

Product: Air Force Temp Drop (Dropsonde) Message (UZNT13 KNHC)
Transmitted: 25th day of the month at 04:14Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 302)
Storm Number: 09
Storm Name: Irene (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 17
Observation Number: 19

Part A...


Date: Near the closest hour of 3Z on the 25th day of the month
Highest Mandatory Level For Which Wind Was Reported: 700mb
Coordinates: 24.0N 76.0W
Location: 112 miles (180 km) to the SE (131°) from Nassau, Bahamas.
Marsden Square: 080 (About)

Level Geo. Height Air Temp. Dew Point Wind Direction Wind Speed
978mb (28.88 inHg) Sea Level (Surface) 25.6°C (78.1°F) 25.1°C (77.2°F) 10° (from the N) 69 knots (79 mph)
1000mb -199m (-653 ft) Other data not available.
925mb 488m (1,601 ft) 22.4°C (72.3°F) 22.3°C (72.1°F) 20° (from the NNE) 108 knots (124 mph)
850mb 1,223m (4,012 ft) 19.2°C (66.6°F) 19.0°C (66.2°F) 40° (from the NE) 103 knots (119 mph)
700mb 2,884m (9,462 ft) 12.8°C (55.0°F) 12.3°C (54.1°F) 35° (from the NE) 62 knots (71 mph)

Information About Radiosonde:
- Launch Time: 3:00Z
- About Sonde: A descending radiosonde tracked automatically by satellite navigation with no solar or infrared correction.

Remarks Section...


Dropsonde Location: Dropped in eyewall 315° (NW) from the eye center.

Splash Location: 23.93N 76.04W
Splash Time: 3:04Z

Release Location: 24.01N 75.98W View map)
Release Time: 3:00:02Z

Splash Location: 23.94N 76.05W (
Splash Time: 3:04:05Z

Mean Boundary Level Wind (mean wind in the lowest 500 geopotential meters of the sounding):
- Wind Direction: 15° (from the NNE)
- Wind Speed: 95 knots (109 mph)

Deep Layer Mean Wind (average wind over the depth of the sounding):
- Wind Direction: 35° (from the NE)
- Wind Speed: 86 knots (99 mph)
- Depth of Sounding: From 697mb to 977mb

Average Wind Over Lowest Available 150 geopotential meters (gpm) of the sounding:
- Lowest 150m: 159 gpm - 9 gpm (522 geo. feet - 30 geo. feet)
- Wind Direction: 10° (from the N)
- Wind Speed: 82 knots (94 mph)

Sounding Software Version: AEV 20802


Part B: Data For Significant Levels...


Significant Temperature And Relative Humidity Levels...
Level Air Temperature Dew Point
978mb (Surface) 25.6°C (78.1°F) 25.1°C (77.2°F)
850mb 19.2°C (66.6°F) 19.0°C (66.2°F)
765mb 16.6°C (61.9°F) 16.3°C (61.3°F)
697mb 12.4°C (54.3°F) 11.9°C (53.4°F)

Significant Wind Levels...
Level Wind Direction Wind Speed
978mb (Surface) 10° (from the N) 69 knots (79 mph)
967mb 10° (from the N) 87 knots (100 mph)
964mb 10° (from the N) 86 knots (99 mph)
954mb 15° (from the NNE) 92 knots (106 mph)
930mb 15° (from the NNE) 111 knots (128 mph)
922mb 20° (from the NNE) 104 knots (120 mph)
915mb 30° (from the NNE) 106 knots (122 mph)
895mb 30° (from the NNE) 94 knots (108 mph)
885mb 30° (from the NNE) 105 knots (121 mph)
861mb 35° (from the NE) 104 knots (120 mph)
856mb 35° (from the NE) 100 knots (115 mph)
850mb 40° (from the NE) 103 knots (119 mph)
788mb 45° (from the NE) 88 knots (101 mph)
760mb 45° (from the NE) 64 knots (74 mph)
697mb 35° (from the NE) 62 knots (71 mph)

[tailgater]

Latest sterring chart 0300UTC still has a large gap to shoot through.
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/d ... oom=&time=



If she was a lot sallower.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/d ... oom=&time=

[Battlebrick]

This should be taken very seriously now, the flooding threat would be catastrophic:

0z GFS:

[Dave]

[artist]

000
URNT15 KNHC 250417
AF302 1709A IRENE HDOB 44 20110825
040800 2420N 07413W 6965 03087 9988 +077 //// 160075 077 054 009 01
040830 2422N 07414W 6957 03102 //// +069 //// 161078 080 055 019 01
040900 2424N 07414W 6978 03076 //// +063 //// 152079 081 056 026 05
040930 2427N 07414W 6951 03105 //// +059 //// 158074 076 055 024 01
041000 2429N 07414W 6973 03073 //// +067 //// 156082 084 054 020 01
041030 2432N 07414W 6963 03090 //// +066 //// 151081 082 055 019 05
041100 2434N 07415W 6979 03076 //// +058 //// 140086 089 052 029 05
041130 2436N 07415W 6969 03087 //// +056 //// 138084 089 052 010 01
041200 2438N 07415W 6967 03094 //// +065 //// 134079 080 052 009 01
041230 2441N 07415W 6964 03102 //// +059 //// 133080 081 049 009 01
041300 2443N 07415W 6968 03098 //// +060 //// 131081 082 048 008 01
041330 2445N 07416W 6966 03099 0010 +075 //// 130079 080 048 005 01
041400 2447N 07416W 6973 03092 0002 +083 +081 131079 080 048 004 03
041430 2449N 07416W 6969 03099 0001 +085 +076 131080 081 047 003 00
041500 2451N 07416W 6966 03108 9998 +089 +075 130078 079 046 003 00
041530 2453N 07416W 6966 03105 9996 +092 +074 130081 081 044 002 00
041600 2455N 07417W 6968 03102 9998 +092 +074 131082 083 046 003 03
041630 2457N 07417W 6970 03102 9993 +097 +073 130080 081 044 004 03
041700 2459N 07417W 6969 03108 9998 +094 +076 133079 079 046 005 00
041730 2502N 07417W 6968 03109 0007 +086 //// 132074 076 043 009 01
$$
;

[Ev1948]

Some of The EC residents are saying that people are not taking this seriously at all. This is going to be BAD.

I can confirm that. I'm currently in upstate NY (about an hour north of Albany), having driven yesterday and today from Charlotte, NC. In Charlotte folks were VERY aware of Irene and the news was full of the storm.

But the earthquake yesterday TOTALLY eclipsed all talk of Irene in Washington, Baltimore, the Philly area and the NY metro area. I was just SHOCKED in 5 hours of driving from DC to NJ yesterday listening to news on the radio that I heard almost NO mention of Irene on any radio station in those metro areas. It was all earthquake talk. Granted, the storm was 4-5 days out still.... but even today, as I talked with friends from Long Island, folks are VERY laid back about Irene, very much still waiting to see what happens, thinking the forecast will change, and the media are wanting to be careful not to cry wolf.

I'm VERY concerned about the attitude I'm seeing and hearing....

I am very concerned also, I am from South New Jersey, and talking to my family and trying to tell them about Irene goes right past them, they think I get over upset and make to much of a big deal with hurricane and tropical storms. Matter of fact they tease me about them. I have sent them all 2 emails since last night about Irene and non of them have sent me one back, like they just delete them and forget about it. I am worried about them

[artist]

000
URNT15 KNHC 250427
AF302 1709A IRENE HDOB 45 20110825
041800 2504N 07417W 6967 03110 0006 +087 //// 131074 075 044 005 01
041830 2506N 07418W 6967 03110 0005 +088 +087 130074 075 046 007 00
041900 2508N 07418W 6962 03115 0005 +086 //// 135077 079 049 011 01
041930 2510N 07418W 6969 03109 0013 +081 //// 137066 069 055 009 05
042000 2512N 07418W 6965 03118 //// +067 //// 130070 072 053 015 05
042030 2514N 07417W 6967 03119 0034 +070 //// 130072 075 049 012 05
042100 2516N 07417W 6968 03115 0016 +089 +075 131076 079 049 005 03
042130 2517N 07416W 6967 03120 0005 +097 +075 130069 070 048 005 03
042200 2519N 07415W 6967 03117 0010 +095 +077 133068 069 046 004 00
042230 2520N 07415W 6967 03121 0010 +097 +076 137066 068 045 005 03
042300 2522N 07414W 6970 03120 0015 +093 +074 136067 069 044 003 00
042330 2524N 07413W 6966 03127 0022 +089 +073 136069 069 045 003 00
042400 2525N 07412W 6967 03123 0027 +088 +065 135069 070 043 003 03
042430 2527N 07411W 6970 03122 0030 +088 +056 136072 072 043 003 00
042500 2528N 07410W 6965 03131 0026 +091 +052 137074 074 043 001 03
042530 2530N 07409W 6969 03126 0023 +095 +047 138073 074 043 001 03
042600 2532N 07408W 6965 03132 0025 +095 +044 138070 070 043 000 03
042630 2533N 07407W 6969 03134 0035 +093 +048 138068 069 042 000 03
042700 2535N 07408W 6961 03149 0045 +090 +054 137066 067 /// /// 03
042730 2536N 07410W 6967 03146 0038 +095 +054 137066 066 /// /// 03
$$
;

[ROCK]

Some of The EC residents are saying that people are not taking this seriously at all. This is going to be BAD.

I can confirm that. I'm currently in upstate NY (about an hour north of Albany), having driven yesterday and today from Charlotte, NC. In Charlotte folks were VERY aware of Irene and the news was full of the storm.

But the earthquake yesterday TOTALLY eclipsed all talk of Irene in Washington, Baltimore, the Philly area and the NY metro area. I was just SHOCKED in 5 hours of driving from DC to NJ yesterday listening to news on the radio that I heard almost NO mention of Irene on any radio station in those metro areas. It was all earthquake talk. Granted, the storm was 4-5 days out still.... but even today, as I talked with friends from Long Island, folks are VERY laid back about Irene, very much still waiting to see what happens, thinking the forecast will change, and the media are wanting to be careful not to cry wolf.

I'm VERY concerned about the attitude I'm seeing and hearing....

I am very concerned also, I am from South New Jersey, and talking to my family and trying to tell them about Irene goes right past them, they think I get over upset and make to much of a big deal with hurricane and tropical storms. Matter of fact they tease me about them. I have sent them all 2 emails since last night about Irene and non of them have sent me one back, like they just delete them and forget about it. I am worried about them

I would be to if I lived in that area....time to go inland and let this play out. You dont want to be stuck with no power,gas,grocery store...

[belltown]

Satellite video of Irene from the International Space Station earlier today.

http://www.nasa.gov/multimedia/videogal ... =108144931

[Dave]

I got ahead of you by one artist....here's the current.

[BigB0882]

Can someone educate me about why this is going to be such a disaster if it hits NYC area. Is it just a surge issue? What are we talking about, flooding on the level of New Orleans? How much will flood? No building are going to be knocked over, I can see some windows being blown out but it would have to be pretty strong and a direct hit for that to happen. Even so, it wouldn't be the end of the world if a few windows break. I just want to know if people are being melo dramatic about the possible outcome or if there is merit to it.

[SunnyThoughts]

Reed Timmer, professional meteorologist and storm chaser posted this on his facebook a little while ago...from NASSAU

[artist]

000
URNT15 KNHC 250437
AF302 1709A IRENE HDOB 46 20110825
042800 2534N 07411W 6976 03122 0030 +095 +048 137065 066 042 000 03
042830 2533N 07412W 6967 03132 0027 +095 +039 137068 069 043 000 03
042900 2532N 07413W 6965 03130 0027 +092 +039 136070 070 043 001 03
042930 2531N 07414W 6967 03125 0029 +090 +045 135070 071 044 003 00
043000 2530N 07415W 6967 03126 0029 +085 +060 135068 069 040 002 03
043030 2529N 07417W 6968 03124 0028 +085 +060 135068 069 042 004 03
043100 2528N 07418W 6967 03124 0030 +084 +065 134067 068 042 004 00
043130 2526N 07419W 6969 03125 0026 +085 +067 134068 068 044 004 00
043200 2525N 07420W 6970 03118 0022 +089 +064 135068 068 044 005 03
043230 2524N 07422W 6966 03118 0012 +092 +062 133067 069 044 005 03
043300 2523N 07423W 6970 03114 0007 +097 +062 129067 069 045 006 00
043330 2522N 07424W 6967 03119 0034 +073 +070 126068 069 046 013 00
043400 2521N 07425W 6970 03105 0052 +048 //// 124072 076 040 021 05
043430 2520N 07427W 6976 03097 //// +037 //// 121076 078 027 049 05
043500 2518N 07428W 6955 03116 //// +066 //// 125081 088 031 042 05
043530 2517N 07429W 6955 03120 //// +071 //// 123067 070 016 050 05
043600 2516N 07431W 6971 03107 0014 +081 //// 124067 069 048 004 05
043630 2515N 07432W 6958 03114 //// +069 //// 119073 074 042 011 05
043700 2513N 07434W 6963 03104 //// +060 //// 116072 072 051 030 01
043730 2512N 07435W 6977 03088 //// +066 //// 119066 070 055 029 01
$$

[PTPatrick]

Thought I would post this for NYC's...not that many are looking yet. Its the evac zones for NYC.

http://www.nyc.gov/html/oem/downloads/p ... nglish.pdf

Of note...in a cat 3 much of lower manhattan 's financia district, SOHO, and CHina town would flood.

Both Airports would be nearly inundated.

Significant portions of Brooklyn would be flooded as well.

Of course this all depends on whether it hits at right tide time, and with RFQ vs left side of the eye. And how weak it is from traveersing the DELMARVA/SNJ areas

[bob rulz]

Can someone educate me about why this is going to be such a disaster if it hits NYC area. Is it just a surge issue? What are we talking about, flooding on the level of New Orleans? How much will flood? No building are going to be knocked over, I can see some windows being blown out but it would have to be pretty strong and a direct hit for that to happen. Even so, it wouldn't be the end of the world if a few windows break. I just want to know if people are being melo dramatic about the possible outcome or if there is merit to it.

It's not the wind that would be an issue, although it would certainly cause some problems with trees being blown over and a lot of windows being blown out. The problem is how many people are packed into such a tight area that would be very very prone to storm surge if the hurricane approached at the right angle. A good chunk of Lower Manhattan and Brooklyn would be under water. No hurricane has even come close to New York City in recent memory so the majority of people probably wouldn't take the threat seriously and may not know how to properly prepare for it.

[Dave]