ATL: IRENE - Models

[Ntxw]

Okay, what's going on here??? I thought the models would be consolidating....It's a bit nervewracking to see the GFS once again trending further West. Hmmm, will the track be adjusted on the next advisory?? This is indeed scary!!

Follow the Euro, it has always been and likely will be the trend setter. Not a surprise the GFS has been tailgating it.

[ConvergenceZone]

Uh Oh, now NOGAPS shifted West as well? I know we shouldn't look at one model, but GFS(shifted west) and now NOGAPS?..... Perhaps I'm reading too much into it.

[AdamFirst]

Okay, what's going on here??? I thought the models would be consolidating....It's a bit nervewracking to see the GFS once again trending further West. Hmmm, will the track be adjusted on the next advisory?? This is indeed scary!!

They've leaned against the EURO (ECWMF model to those that don't know) in every one of their advisories. If EURO is left the track definitely goes left.

[Blown Away]

this is a run JB has been talking about for years.....looks like its finally will come to fruition IMO..... Unfortunatly no one in NYC, unless they are a transplant is ready for something like this. Those old skyscrapers are not ready for this. Flooding alone will be a disaster and the likelyhood on no power to all those people living in DT...ugh worst case scenario...I feel sick just thinking about it...

Statistics are heavily against it, I say in the end it will miss the entire CONUS. Irene will be counted as a brush for OBX and Cape Cod is my prediction.

[ConvergenceZone]

Thanks Ntxw and AdamFirst for your comments.
Hmm, so the EURO tonight might be very interesting....I have a feeling that if the Euro is over New York City on this next run, and that in turn persuades the nhc to shift the track further west, we might wake up to a bit of media hysteria...

[clfenwi]

Okay, what's going on here??? I thought the models would be consolidating....It's a bit nervewracking to see the GFS once again trending further West. Hmmm, will the track be adjusted on the next advisory?? This is indeed scary!!

Well, NOGAPS and GFS pretty much laid down identical tracks it seems (at least when you look at the 72h and 96h points. So, there may be some tightening of the spread going on. We shall see. Based on these two alone, I wouldn't expect a change to the west in the track forecast. However, it would have to be slowed down, bringing the 96h point to the south some.

[ConvergenceZone]

this is a run JB has been talking about for years.....looks like its finally will come to fruition IMO..... Unfortunatly no one in NYC, unless they are a transplant is ready for something like this. Those old skyscrapers are not ready for this. Flooding alone will be a disaster and the likelyhood on no power to all those people living in DT...ugh worst case scenario...I feel sick just thinking about it...

Statistics are heavily against it, I say in the end it will miss the entire CONUS. Irene will be counted as a brush for OBX and Cape Cod is my prediction.

I hope you are right Blown Away, but don't you agree that sooner or later NY's luck is going to run out? Even if statistics aren't against it, rare events do happen from time to time...

[ConvergenceZone]

One thing I don't agree with is the strength that the GFS is showing...There's too much cool water and as the NHC mentioned on their last update, it's going to be encountering some pretty good shear along with the cooler water to help weaken it as well....

But still, I think it's not out of the possibility to still see a cat 1 or 2 in NYC, at least a Cat 1 I would think.

[GreenWinds]

One thing I don't agree with is the strength that the GFS is showing...There's too much cool water and as the NHC mentioned on their last update, it's going to be encountering some pretty good shear along with the cooler water to help weaken it as well....

But still, I think it's not out of the possibility to still see a cat 1 or 2 in NYC, at least a Cat 1 I would think.

You make a good point. Anyone aware of the SST's around NJ and Long Island?

The only way I see Irene staying above 80mph on its closest approach to NY is its moving very fast. A fast moving hurricane won't have enough time to weaken considerably by the time it reaches the latitude of NY. Correct me if I'm wrong.

I agree with Blown Away, I HIGHLY DOUBT Irene will make landfall in NJ or NY...more likely a Carolina storm or out to sea!

[ROCK]

this is a run JB has been talking about for years.....looks like its finally will come to fruition IMO..... Unfortunatly no one in NYC, unless they are a transplant is ready for something like this. Those old skyscrapers are not ready for this. Flooding alone will be a disaster and the likelyhood on no power to all those people living in DT...ugh worst case scenario...I feel sick just thinking about it...

Statistics are heavily against it, I say in the end it will miss the entire CONUS. Irene will be counted as a brush for OBX and Cape Cod is my prediction.

what does stats have to do with anything? FL was hit what 4 times in 2004.....blew that stat right out of the water... it only takes one....and I feel this is the one JB has been talking about for years....

also the guidance has shift left including the EURO which you cannot discount....

[GreenWinds]

this is a run JB has been talking about for years.....looks like its finally will come to fruition IMO..... Unfortunatly no one in NYC, unless they are a transplant is ready for something like this. Those old skyscrapers are not ready for this. Flooding alone will be a disaster and the likelyhood on no power to all those people living in DT...ugh worst case scenario...I feel sick just thinking about it...

Statistics are heavily against it, I say in the end it will miss the entire CONUS. Irene will be counted as a brush for OBX and Cape Cod is my prediction.

what does stats have to do with anything? FL was hit what 4 times in 2004.....blew that stat right out of the water... it only takes one....and I feel this is the one JB has been talking about for years....

also the guidance has shift left including the EURO which you cannot discount....

I believe this west shift is part of a bigger trend...ultimately Irene will be a Carolina storm IMO.

[ROCK]

One thing I don't agree with is the strength that the GFS is showing...There's too much cool water and as the NHC mentioned on their last update, it's going to be encountering some pretty good shear along with the cooler water to help weaken it as well....

But still, I think it's not out of the possibility to still see a cat 1 or 2 in NYC, at least a Cat 1 I would think.

You make a good point. Anyone aware of the SST's around NJ and Long Island?

The only way I see Irene staying above 80mph on its closest approach to NY is its moving very fast. A fast moving hurricane won't have enough time to weaken considerably by the time it reaches the latitude of NY. Correct me if I'm wrong.

I agree with Blown Away, I HIGHLY DOUBT Irene will make landfall in NJ or NY...more likely a Carolina storm or out to sea!

max intensity map...you tell me what it can support upstate....it will be hauling butt after NC also.....

http://wxmaps.org/pix/hurpot.html#ATL

[clfenwi]

00Z Canadian 72h. *Maybe* slightly east compared to the NOGAPS and GFS.

[ROCK]

Statistics are heavily against it, I say in the end it will miss the entire CONUS. Irene will be counted as a brush for OBX and Cape Cod is my prediction.[/quote]

what does stats have to do with anything? FL was hit what 4 times in 2004.....blew that stat right out of the water... it only takes one....and I feel this is the one JB has been talking about for years....

also the guidance has shift left including the EURO which you cannot discount....[/quote]

I believe this west shift is part of a bigger trend...ultimately Irene will be a Carolina storm IMO.[/quote]


I doubt that....the EURO is your friend....keep repeating that over and over again...

[GreenWinds]

I guess I'm in disbelief right now. The angle of approach for a storm to maintain hurricane intensity and threaten the boroughs of New York is so rare that even if a model says it might happen 3 days from now I would take it with a grain of salt. The Euro will probably shift some more.

Didn't Floyd also hit the Northeast as a tropical/subtropical storm? Most of its strength was sapped away after making landfall in the Carolinas (which is what I think will happen to Irene). I really could see a repeat of a Floyd scenario the more I think about it.

[clfenwi]

00Z CMC 96 Canadian may end up representing the right of the model guidance envelope as it runs Irene off the coast of New Jersey and clear of CT/MA

[PTPatrick]

I could see a floyd scenario if it hits a bit further west in NC. But if barely clips the OBX and makes landfall in Cape May, NJ before significant weakening, it would be worse surge wise and damage wise. Floyds surge was mostly in NC. Also I think Floyd didnt move very fast either so it had more time to weaken. So many factors at play...but yeah, we could have a floyd or we could have a 1821 storm...well know Saturday.

[kamqercam]

Cringe at seeing the name Floyd. Weird thing was the winds weren't all that bad or gusty with it, but as everyone knows the flooding was terrible. Another similar tracking hurricane was Fran. Fran was a really gusty hurricane. I don't know if that's because it didn't stall like Floyd but I swear we had worse wind damage with Fran.

[kamqercam]

I could see a floyd scenario if it hits a bit further west in NC. But if barely clips the OBX and makes landfall in Cape May, NJ before significant weakening, it would be worse surge wise and damage wise. Floyds surge was mostly in NC. Also I think Floyd didnt move very fast either so it had more time to weaken. So many factors at play...but yeah, we could have a floyd or we could have a 1821 storm...well know Saturday.

Floyd stalled over Lenoir county. That is where I happened to be living at the time. It was weird being in the eye for a long long time like that.

[JtSmarts]

Cringe at seeing the name Floyd. Weird thing was the winds weren't all that bad or gusty with it, but as everyone knows the flooding was terrible. Another similar tracking hurricane was Fran. Fran was a really gusty hurricane. I don't know if that's because it didn't stall like Floyd but I swear we had worse wind damage with Fran.

I can imagine that the wind was probably worse with Fran because she was a legit Cat 3. The strongest hurricane to hit NC since Hazel if I'm not mistaken. Floyd was about around 105 Cat 2. If Irene does hit NC according to the NHC she should likely replace Fran as the strongest NC cane since Hazel.