ATL: IRENE - Models

[clfenwi]

00Z HWRF stats. 72 hr point is off-shore of Outer Banks (20 mile shift to northeast from 18Z run). 96h point is west-central MA (42 mile shift to the south from 18Z run)

ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

NCEP COUPLED HWRF HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

HURRICANE IRENE 09L

INITIAL TIME 0Z AUG 25

FORECAST POSITIONS (FROM STATS.SHORT FILE...)

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE MIN PRESS (hPa) MAX SFC WIND (KTS)

HOUR: 0.0 LONG: -74.90 LAT: 23.50 MIN PRESS (hPa): 929.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 106.00
HOUR: 6.0 LONG: -75.90 LAT: 24.00 MIN PRESS (hPa): 925.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 105.00
HOUR: 12.0 LONG: -76.50 LAT: 24.90 MIN PRESS (hPa): 926.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 110.00
HOUR: 18.0 LONG: -76.90 LAT: 26.10 MIN PRESS (hPa): 921.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 117.00
HOUR: 24.0 LONG: -77.20 LAT: 27.10 MIN PRESS (hPa): 922.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 112.00
HOUR: 30.0 LONG: -77.40 LAT: 28.30 MIN PRESS (hPa): 922.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 109.00
HOUR: 36.0 LONG: -77.40 LAT: 29.40 MIN PRESS (hPa): 925.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 106.00
HOUR: 42.0 LONG: -77.40 LAT: 30.50 MIN PRESS (hPa): 926.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 104.00
HOUR: 48.0 LONG: -77.10 LAT: 31.50 MIN PRESS (hPa): 925.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 101.00
HOUR: 54.0 LONG: -76.80 LAT: 32.50 MIN PRESS (hPa): 924.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 107.00
HOUR: 60.0 LONG: -76.40 LAT: 33.40 MIN PRESS (hPa): 924.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 109.00
HOUR: 66.0 LONG: -75.90 LAT: 34.40 MIN PRESS (hPa): 922.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 105.00
HOUR: 72.0 LONG: -75.30 LAT: 35.40 MIN PRESS (hPa): 925.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 104.00
HOUR: 78.0 LONG: -74.80 LAT: 36.50 MIN PRESS (hPa): 924.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 98.00
HOUR: 84.0 LONG: -74.00 LAT: 38.10 MIN PRESS (hPa): 925.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 90.00
HOUR: 90.0 LONG: -73.30 LAT: 40.20 MIN PRESS (hPa): 928.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 89.00
HOUR: 96.0 LONG: -72.40 LAT: 42.30 MIN PRESS (hPa): 942.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 64.00
HOUR: 102.0 LONG: -71.50 LAT: 44.70 MIN PRESS (hPa): 959.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 52.00
HOUR: 108.0 LONG: -69.70 LAT: 47.00 MIN PRESS (hPa): 973.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 36.00
HOUR: 114.0 LONG: -67.70 LAT: 49.90 MIN PRESS (hPa): 980.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 37.00
HOUR: 120.0 LONG: -65.70 LAT: 52.50 MIN PRESS (hPa): 984.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 40.00
HOUR: 126.0 LONG: -62.80 LAT: 54.30 MIN PRESS (hPa): 984.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 34.00
FORECAST RAN UNCOUPLED

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.

[clfenwi]

00Z HWRF 72h

[clfenwi]

00Z HWRF 93h. Similar landfall point as GFS and NOGAPS, but slightly sooner in time.

[clfenwi]

00Z HWRF swath

[clfenwi]

00Z GFDL 72h point is just south of Moorehead City (whopping 67 mile shift west). Next point is inland NC, then just southeast of Hampton, VA. 96h point is southeast of York, PA (130 mile shift nearly due west. Big jump left for the GFDL.

HOUR: .0 LONG: -75.01 LAT: 23.49 MIN PRESS (hPa): 958.32 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS):102.98
HOUR: 6.0 LONG: -75.95 LAT: 24.28 MIN PRESS (hPa): 947.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS):112.19
HOUR: 12.0 LONG: -76.65 LAT: 25.19 MIN PRESS (hPa): 942.07 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS):112.03
HOUR: 18.0 LONG: -77.15 LAT: 26.26 MIN PRESS (hPa): 938.22 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS):114.55
HOUR: 24.0 LONG: -77.41 LAT: 27.31 MIN PRESS (hPa): 933.49 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS):113.05
HOUR: 30.0 LONG: -77.73 LAT: 28.34 MIN PRESS (hPa): 934.77 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS):110.55
HOUR: 36.0 LONG: -77.87 LAT: 29.29 MIN PRESS (hPa): 936.27 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS):106.70
HOUR: 42.0 LONG: -77.79 LAT: 30.10 MIN PRESS (hPa): 933.69 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS):105.30
HOUR: 48.0 LONG: -77.43 LAT: 30.95 MIN PRESS (hPa): 925.96 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS):113.95
HOUR: 54.0 LONG: -77.29 LAT: 31.78 MIN PRESS (hPa): 928.41 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS):101.25
HOUR: 60.0 LONG: -77.15 LAT: 32.74 MIN PRESS (hPa): 929.76 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 93.63
HOUR: 66.0 LONG: -76.98 LAT: 33.64 MIN PRESS (hPa): 923.74 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS):113.56
HOUR: 72.0 LONG: -76.75 LAT: 34.41 MIN PRESS (hPa): 922.80 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS):105.83
HOUR: 78.0 LONG: -76.44 LAT: 35.48 MIN PRESS (hPa): 928.64 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 98.33
HOUR: 84.0 LONG: -76.28 LAT: 36.99 MIN PRESS (hPa): 932.39 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 85.25
HOUR: 90.0 LONG: -76.49 LAT: 38.54 MIN PRESS (hPa): 934.61 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 70.44
HOUR: 96.0 LONG: -76.62 LAT: 39.80 MIN PRESS (hPa): 938.79 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 73.51
HOUR:102.0 LONG: -76.72 LAT: 41.03 MIN PRESS (hPa): 945.91 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 59.08
HOUR:108.0 LONG: -76.26 LAT: 42.99 MIN PRESS (hPa): 955.09 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 56.44
HOUR:114.0 LONG: -75.34 LAT: 45.24 MIN PRESS (hPa): 961.51 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 42.95
HOUR:120.0 LONG: -73.74 LAT: 47.73 MIN PRESS (hPa): 965.23 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 47.19
HOUR:126.0 LONG: -72.70 LAT: 50.58 MIN PRESS (hPa): 966.08 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 31.67

[maxintensity]

Euro at 24 hours looks way west to me. Good grief this run will be interesting. Would need to move NE from hour 24-48 to make its 12z forecast point.

[clfenwi]

00Z GFDL 72h

[clfenwi]

00Z GFDL 96h

[clfenwi]

00Z GFDL swatch

[CronkPSU]

i wonder if the movement west from all these models is because of the continues western movement now or if the front just isn't as strong as predicted going forward in the time period

[cpdaman]

Euro at 24 hours looks way west to me. Good grief this run will be interesting. Would need to move NE from hour 24-48 to make its 12z forecast point.

Im on my phone. So ru SURE ur readin the biggest run of nite accurately

[Texashawk]

So if I'm reading that right, Irene will be.... blowing straight through Washington, DC?

00Z GFDL 96h

[maxintensity]

72 hours Euro pretty good shift west.

[maxintensity]

96H heads basically due N and buries itself in NY

[cpdaman]

Max intensity can u pleeease post 24 and 48 hour euro maps

[clfenwi]

So if I'm reading that right, Irene will be.... blowing straight through Washington, DC?

00Z GFDL 96h

(image snipped)

D.C. is 77 West, so looking at Irene passing something like 20-30 miles to the east of DC. Would be closer to Baltimore.

[maxintensity]

H24


H48

[SunnyThoughts]

Would that pile up water in the Chesapeake? In the Potomac too?

[southerngale]

Please remember to upload images and not hotlink.

You can go back and edit if you were just trying to get it posted quickly.

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?f=59&t=111268

[cpdaman]

Thank u sir looks about 26 near 78