#211 Postby euro6208 » Thu Aug 25, 2011 4:34 am
WTPN31 PGTW 250900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 14W (NANMADOL) WARNING NR 011
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
250600Z --- NEAR 16.3N 125.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.3N 125.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z --- 17.1N 124.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z --- 18.0N 124.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z --- 19.1N 124.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
270600Z --- 19.9N 124.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z --- 21.3N 124.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
290600Z --- 22.4N 125.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
300600Z --- 23.8N 126.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
250900Z POSITION NEAR 16.5N 125.0E.
TYPHOON (TY) 14W (NANMADOL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 630 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF KADENA AB, OKINAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWEST-
WARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS DEVELOPED A WELL-DEFINED
10-NM EYE AS IT BEGAN TO TRACK ON A MORE POLEWARD DIRECTION. THE
INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE ABOVE ANIMATION WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE. THE INITIIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES
FROM PGTW, KNES, AND RJTD, RANGING FROM 77 TO 90 KNOTS. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES TY 14W IS DIRECTLY BENEATH A RIDGE AXIS IN AN
AREA OF LOW (05-10 KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). ANIMATED WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS EXCELLENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW INTO A TUTT CELL TO
THE NORTH NEAR TAIWAN AND GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW ENHANCED BY THE
RIDGE. THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF
A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) ANCHORED OVER THE DATELINE
NORTH OF MIDWAY ISLAND. IT IS EXPECTED TO TURN MORE POLEWARD OVER
THE NEXT 72 HOURS, THEN NORHTEASTWARD, AS IT TRACES THE WESTERN
EXTENT OF THE STR. TY 14W WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AT A SLIGHTLY
HIGHER THAN NORMAL RATE DUE TO THE HIGHLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS AHEAD - LOW VWS, WARMM SST'S, AND EXCELLENT OUTFLOW. THE
AVAILABLE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT THAN IN
PREVIOUS RUNS WITH EGRR AS THE SOLE LEFT OUTLIER. THIS TRACK
FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT OF CONSENSUS AT THE ONSET TO
OFFSET EGRR'S UNLIKELY WESTWARD DEVIATION, THEN A BIT MORE TO THE
RIGHT AFTER TAU 48 IN ANTICIPATION OF A POSSIBLE INTERACTION WITH
A LARGE INTENSIFYING CYCLONE TO THE EAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 250600Z IS 22 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 251500Z, 252100Z,
260300Z AND 260900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 15W (TALAS) WARNINGS
(WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. //
NNNN
with nanmadol rapidly intensifying, that 80 knots will soon be too low...
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I really hope they can withstand the threat of both storms headed their way and the rest that may follow.