WPAC: NANMADOL - Tropical Storm (14W/Mina)

KWT · #221 Postby **KWT** » Thu Aug 25, 2011 5:21 am

Given we seem to be slipping back into La nina, this WPAC season thus far has been very impressive.

dexterlabio · #222 Postby **dexterlabio** » Thu Aug 25, 2011 5:29 am

Yeah me too. Could possibly be our next supertyphoon this year.

#223 Postby **Typhoon Hunter** » Thu Aug 25, 2011 5:33 am

Uh oh, is it on the verge of RI-ing I wonder? Looking very solid with perfectly clear eye now on latest MTSAT IR imagery!

http://www.cwb.gov.tw/eng/observe/satellite/Sat_H_EA.htm?type=RGB

dexterlabio · #224 Postby **dexterlabio** » Thu Aug 25, 2011 5:37 am

KWT wrote:Given we seem to be slipping back into La nina, this WPAC season thus far has been very impressive.

Wow really? :eek:

I thought La nina already ended and now it's returning. The first half of this year in the Philippines and also in the other countries around the Pacific (especially Australia) had been wet. I guess we are in once again for a wet and active season.

cebuboy · #225 Postby **cebuboy** » Thu Aug 25, 2011 5:41 am

I read something about Fujiwhara effect in some sources but could not understand it. It says that if two typhoons are close enough, they start to interact. Is there a possibility that due to this interaction, it would a make a landfall in Phil? Thanks.

dexterlabio · #226 Postby **dexterlabio** » Thu Aug 25, 2011 5:52 am

cebuboy wrote:I read something about Fujiwhara effect in some sources but could not understand it. It says that if two typhoons are close enough, they start to interact. Is there a possibility that due to this interaction, it would a make a landfall in Phil? Thanks.

Not in the met field but the most likely case is that Nanmadol will veer to the north and move near Talas as a result of the Fujiwara effect....when it will happen and to what extent the storms will interact is crucial to determine though as of now.

(The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.)

#227 Postby **oaba09** » Thu Aug 25, 2011 6:39 am

The eye is definitely visible now...Another WPAC monster...what a season we're having!

#228 Postby **StormingB81** » Thu Aug 25, 2011 6:42 am

when is it going to turn..prolly by morning my guess

#229 Postby **StormingB81** » Thu Aug 25, 2011 6:43 am

well too ecmwf brough it right next to PI before turning up north to batter these islands

Chacor · #230 Postby **Chacor** » Thu Aug 25, 2011 6:44 am

Typhoon Hunter wrote:Uh oh, is it on the verge of RI-ing I wonder? Looking very solid with perfectly clear eye now on latest MTSAT IR imagery!

http://www.cwb.gov.tw/eng/observe/satellite/Sat_H_EA.htm?type=RGB

Eye is clouded over on IR with the 1101 UTC shot.

Microwave doesn't show a solid ring around the eye yet:

So I would suggest that RI has not yet started.

#231 Postby **StormingB81** » Thu Aug 25, 2011 6:59 am

Off topic but a nice little lightning show outside right now...

euro6208 · #232 Postby **euro6208** » Thu Aug 25, 2011 7:03 am

oaba09 wrote:The eye is definitely visible now...Another WPAC monster...what a season we're having!

could be our 3rd category 5 this year :double:

#233 Postby **StormingB81** » Thu Aug 25, 2011 7:13 am

looks like models are going a little crazy again....im guessing still the uncertianty of how the storms will interact if any...

euro6208 · #234 Postby **euro6208** » Thu Aug 25, 2011 7:15 am

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.6 / 949.8mb/104.6kt

Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
5.6 6.5 6.5

quickly increasing

dexterlabio · #235 Postby **dexterlabio** » Thu Aug 25, 2011 7:23 am

Chacor wrote:
Typhoon Hunter wrote:]

Eye is clouded over on IR with the 1101 UTC shot.

Microwave doesn't show a solid ring around the eye yet:

So I would suggest that RI has not yet started.

Oh so it still doesn't have defined eye in microwave images. But that small eye in visible imagery is looking good.

#236 Postby **oaba09** » Thu Aug 25, 2011 7:23 am

euro6208 wrote:
oaba09 wrote:The eye is definitely visible now...Another WPAC monster...what a season we're having!

could be our 3rd category 5 this year

yeah, it's crazy!

it looks like it's getting stronger by the hour...very impressive system!

Chacor · #237 Postby **Chacor** » Thu Aug 25, 2011 7:24 am

Without a clear eye, it's safe to discount the raw-T 6.5. ADT CI of 5.6 seems reasonable enough though.

dexterlabio · #238 Postby **dexterlabio** » Thu Aug 25, 2011 7:27 am

^upon posting that the latest frame shows the eye being cloud-filled but still distinguishable....but I believe it is looking better enough to increase DT number, nice curved banding I may say. It's got a 5.0 from JTWC latest satfix.

euro6208 · #239 Postby **euro6208** » Thu Aug 25, 2011 7:32 am

although the eye is cloud filled, infrared imagery shows a nice well defined eye, based on this and increasing numbers, i would place nanmadol's intensity at 105 knots 1 minute winds.

euro6208 · #240 Postby **euro6208** » Thu Aug 25, 2011 7:35 am

still forecasting a rapid increase in strength, 150 knots? :eek:

WPAC: NANMADOL - Tropical Storm (14W/Mina)

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