ATL: IRENE - Remnants - Discussion

[tolakram]

Live Vis Loop: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... map=latlon

[HurrMark]

She doesn't look too good this am.

Yea, I'm starting to think that her intensification phase is over with. Conditions are far from idea now, so in my opinion, she could be on the decline strength wise from here. She might still be a hurricane though as she moves up north towards the north coast.

Maybe but I'm going to side with the NHC on this one, the environment still seems pretty good to me and the EWRC is almost over.

Dunno...it has been almost over since last night...really, if it is going to intensify, it has to do it now since north of 30N, waters would probably be too cold for intensification beyond what it is now.

[dolebot_Broward_NW]

Zoomed in radar loop, most likely the circulation in the mid levels because of the distance away from radar site.

http://vortex.plymouth.edu/gifs/AMX.N0Z ... .48_an.gif

Aye you can do the calculations and figure exactly how high up it is. The base elevation for dopplers is usually 0.5 degrees. You know the distance to the supposed center, so you have the adjacent length. Now figure the opposite length with tangent.

[SNOW_JOKE]

Might just be an effect of nighttime temps on the cloud tops. We saw that burst of convection as nocturnal cooling started to inhibit upon the core just after sunset when the final vis frames came in. Now sunrise is up and heating gets underway again we'll quickly see Irene burst back to life.

[Aric Dunn]

Seems to be slowing a bit..

[hurricaneCW]

Dunno...it has been almost over since last night...really, if it is going to intensify, it has to do it now since north of 30N, waters would probably be too cold for intensification beyond what it is now.[/quote]

Waters are plenty warm all the way to the N.C/VA border, not to mention the gulf stream is just off the coast all the way up to the Delmarva.

[JPmia]

http://www.wunderground.com/cgi-bin/fin ... =I(ISLAND1

This weather station was or is very close to the eye.. too bad it hasn't reported in the last 30 minutes.

[HurrMark]

She doesn't look too good this am.

Yea, I'm starting to think that her intensification phase is over with. Conditions are far from idea now, so in my opinion, she could be on the decline strength wise from here. She might still be a hurricane though as she moves up north towards the north coast.

Maybe but I'm going to side with the NHC on this one, the environment still seems pretty good to me and the EWRC is almost over.

Dunno...it has been almost over since last night...really, if it is going to intensify, it has to do it now since north of 30N, waters would probably be too cold for intensification beyond what it is now.

[dolebot_Broward_NW]

Area farther south will slowly see winds lessen has the center passes to their east and winds begin to switch. Palm beach seems to have the highest winds right now.. sustained at 35 gusting over 40.

You have any links to onshore sites with those reports or is that just off shore? Here in NPB, it's been pretty squally for the last half hour

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/show_plot.php? ... _label=EDT

This shows condx at Lake Worth inlet. Note the peak when a nice squall moved through. winds are down to about what we expect when the small scale storm passed. And watching the earthcam linked above I'm guesstimating thats right about 20 kts.

[ConvergenceZone]

Dunno...it has been almost over since last night...really, if it is going to intensify, it has to do it now since north of 30N, waters would probably be too cold for intensification beyond what it is now.

Waters are plenty warm all the way to the N.C/VA border, not to mention the gulf stream is just off the coast all the way up to the Delmarva.

True, but as the last discussion mentioned, the shear suppose to be extreme........

[mutley]

Seems to be slowing a bit..

It does look that way. Not gaining much latitude in the last few hours.

[JPmia]

Anyone here have a good link for a high-res SST map of the East U.S. Coast?

I use this a lot.. especially since it is just east of me here .. great high reso shots right now.

http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/index.php

[maxx9512]

From MSNBC.com, a typo
Early Thursday, the storm was thrashing the Bahamas with widespread damage reported on at least two southern islands. It was a powerful Category 3 hurricane with winds at 115 mph (185 kph). Forecasters said the winds will ramp up quickly over the next day and Irene was expected to blow into a monstrous Category 4 with winds at least 131 mph (210 mph).

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/44270712/ns/weather/

[HurrMark]

Dunno...it has been almost over since last night...really, if it is going to intensify, it has to do it now since north of 30N, waters would probably be too cold for intensification beyond what it is now.

Waters are plenty warm all the way to the N.C/VA border, not to mention the gulf stream is just off the coast all the way up to the Delmarva.[/quote]

Looking at the track, it will actually be going into progressively colder waters until it closes in on the coast, when it approaches the Gulf Stream. Waters will be about 80/81, which are OK for maintaining the storm, but not intensifying it.

[JPmia]

According to local mets we should be getting an eye wall pass about 3pm today around Treasure Cay about 30 miles north of us. Lot of tree damage and no power but still have cell and internet.

Any internet weather observations we can follow?? Seems like there are not of online weather reporting sites in the island chain.

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT15 KNHC 251433
AF300 1909A IRENE HDOB 54 20110825
142330 2541N 07751W 6963 03020 9884 +099 +097 002047 048 045 003 03
142400 2541N 07753W 6966 03024 9888 +102 +097 005048 049 045 003 00
142430 2541N 07755W 6965 03026 9896 +097 //// 012047 049 048 005 01
142500 2541N 07758W 6972 03022 9906 +090 //// 015050 052 053 007 01
142530 2541N 07800W 6965 03036 //// +083 //// 018054 055 053 010 01
142600 2541N 07802W 6970 03034 9913 +099 //// 017056 057 050 008 01
142630 2541N 07804W 6972 03037 9922 +092 //// 015055 057 047 008 01
142700 2541N 07807W 6969 03047 //// +081 //// 016057 060 050 008 01
142730 2541N 07809W 6971 03048 //// +071 //// 015060 061 050 012 01
142800 2541N 07811W 6966 03055 //// +073 //// 012064 066 048 009 01
142830 2541N 07813W 6967 03060 //// +068 //// 008064 067 045 009 01
142900 2541N 07815W 6965 03066 //// +070 //// 006064 065 044 010 01
142930 2541N 07816W 6969 03064 //// +071 //// 004063 064 044 010 05
143000 2541N 07818W 6967 03072 //// +071 //// 006061 062 044 010 01
143030 2541N 07820W 6968 03072 //// +075 //// 005059 060 044 006 01
143100 2541N 07822W 6967 03077 //// +081 //// 009062 062 042 005 01
143130 2541N 07824W 6968 03077 9975 +085 //// 012063 064 042 005 01
143200 2541N 07826W 6967 03086 9982 +085 //// 013064 064 040 003 01
143230 2541N 07828W 6966 03088 9984 +085 //// 015063 064 040 003 01
143300 2541N 07830W 6973 03086 9991 +085 //// 014062 062 038 003 01
$$
;

[dolebot_Broward_NW]

According to local mets we should be getting an eye wall pass about 3pm today around Treasure Cay about 30 miles north of us. Lot of tree damage and no power but still have cell and internet.

Any internet weather observations we can follow?? Seems like there are not of online weather reporting sites in the island chain.

The 2x APRS weather stations expectedly went offline overnight. Otherwise I can't find much in the way of actual obs to follow over there.

[CronkPSU]

just had a nice little band come through out of nowhere for about 3 minutes and is clearing up already again in NW Orlando

[TropicalWXMA]

I think that the 5am NHC Discussion says it all...

THE SHIPS GUIDANCE SHOWS A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN
VERTICAL SHEAR...SO A STEADY DECREASE IN INTENSITY IS LIKELY.
HOWEVER...SINCE IRENE HAS SUCH A LARGE AND INTENSE CIRCULATION...IT
WILL PROBABLY BE RATHER SLOW TO WEAKEN. GIVEN THE LIMITATIONS IN
OUR ABILITY TO PREDICT INTENSITY CHANGE...THERE IS SIGNIFICANT
UNCERTAINTY AS TO JUST HOW STRONG IRENE WILL BE WHEN IT NEARS THE
EASTERN AND NORTHEASTERN U.S. COAST.

[NDG]

what does 53knots equate to in mph?

58 kt = about 67 mph.

Just noting that these winds are NOT sustained winds from the cane. The onshore winds are causing seabreeze style storms. The downdrafts from these can have massive winds. Nothing that the actual winds from the cane are weak.



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Note the big red blowup in a line of storm right over jupiter inlet.

also NWS produced a Significant Weather Event for W tri-county SFL. The storms are locally producing high winds, but the storm itself is moving at 20mph.

http://inws.wrh.noaa.gov/weather/alertinfo/3742908

These are actual squalls from Irene, not seabreeze style showers like you call it. I do agree, those strong gusts that have been reported during the squalls may not be due to pressure gradient.