ATL: IRENE - Remnants - Discussion

[NDG]

The squall approaching the coast looks nasty.



Uploaded with ImageShack.us

[hurricaneCW]

Yes a real concern people in NYC aren't taking this at all seriously. Even if the Hurricane isn't max categorisation by the time it gets to the state, its Surge will still be carried by motion. Combine this with tidal heights, amplification and wave trough/peaks. I'm afraid if people don't start prepping soon there going to leave it too late.

Yea the New Moon is expected on the 28 which will enhance the tides even more, not to mention the record rainfall this month plus some heavy rains that are likely today, and a likely PRE well before the storm which could lead to excessive rainfall amounts, a lot of bad things are adding up, it's almost like the worse case scenario up here, I hope something changes in the next 1-2 days or we are in huge trouble.

[eastcoastFL]

are theose orange and red outter bands going to make it the coast here? doesn't seem like it but i cant tell.

[Sanibel]

The eye just ran the length of Eleuthera Island, Bahamas.

[NDG]

are theose orange and red outter bands going to make it the coast here? doesn't seem like it but i cant tell.

Yes, they are going to make it to the coast, especially in Palm Beach County.

[eastcoastFL]

i was just outside in west palm and everything died down. no more wind or rain.

[Elsiecoro]

where i live, se fl, got a bad band coming thru now

doesnt top last nights excitement of wind blowing palm fronds on to power line, and palm tree catching on fire....

power co here this am to check on tree, said they were busy this am...hard to imagine but...

[hurricaneCW]

Does anyone have a link where you can type in your location and get a storm surge potential reading. Like say you can type in New York City and Category 1 and then get the potential storm surge rise.

[capepoint]

The land elevation is not that big a deal in the outer banks. I think since they are so narrow that the water just goes from the ocean into the sound and it never piles up. I have always heard the big problem is Soundside flooding. The wind backs up the water in the sounds and rivers then when it changes direction that all comes back like a rocking a bathtub. The storms that come up the sound are supposed to cause more damage, which it looks like where this one is headed.

You are correct, the water does not pile-up on the banks. It does, however, pile-up on the mainland side of the sound. Easterly winds push the water from the sounds up the rivers on the mainland, resulting in flooding as far upriver as New Bern and Washington/Greenville. Towns along the western side of the sounds like Belhaven and Oriental get inundated. On the banks, sometime the sound water disappears, leaving dry land where the sound should be. As the winds shift to westerly, the water does come rushing back and can inundate the outer banks. I believe they have some pics of this on the hurritrack site.

[Terry]

Per the OBX - Isn't it quite possible for a new inlet to be cut into the islands per Irene surge? I've seen it happen in the Abacos and along the southwest coast of FL.

[FireRat]

This is making me crazy...don't know if the kids should head out of Wilmington or not at this point.

IMO You should get them out, this thing could be nastier than many think. I've been concerned about the date August 27th for a long time now, based on a disaster risk date prediction method I've been testing, and it's scary to see how things are panning out for NC and getting hit on that very date as a major hurricane. This could rival Fran of 1996 and Wilmington is not far from the center of the cone. Plus the models have been trending west a bit lately. If the place they live in can't stand Cat 2 or 3 conditions, my advice would be to better be safe than sorry. I hope this helps out.

[dolebot_Broward_NW]

The squall approaching the coast looks nasty.

http://img220.imageshack.us/img220/1939/20110825154841black.png

Uploaded with ImageShack.us

Distant thunder heard in Boca. Definitely increasing in intensity as it approaches. Have you seen that little curl in the velocity mode just off pompano? Waterspout?

[Bocadude85]

The squall approaching the coast looks nasty.

http://img220.imageshack.us/img220/1939/20110825154841black.png

Uploaded with ImageShack.us

Distant thunder heard in Boca. Definitely increasing in intensity as it approaches. Have you seen that little curl in the velocity mode just off pompano? Waterspout?

Wind is really starting to pick up now with that approaching squall

[ozonepete]

Just from the anecdotal comments on this forum and responses from our friends and family .... geez, I'm very concerned that millions of people won't be ready for Irene.

I'm in a relatively "safe place". Inland 15 miles from the west and north, and 50 miles from the south and east. My elevation is 98 ft. above sea level. HOWEVER, there are quite a few streams and rivers around and we tend to get a lot of flooding when we have down pours. Also, my current place of employment is along the Delaware River in Philadelphia. Storm surge could be a HUGE problem.

What town is that? I have lots of friends and co-workers in Jersey. I actually live in west Brooklyn now, but high enough and far enough away from the water. But many of my friends live down by the water at or near Brighton Beach and the Rockaways and they are not taking this seriously. The keep laughing and saying "not here, not my neighborhood." It's VERY frustrating. I'm hoping when the warnings go up that they'll change their tune.

[capepoint]

As past NorEastor's have shown, in the OBX you not only fight the sea water rise, but the bay rise which lies behind it in parts. It's got you covered both ways, route 12 often floods in the North end, and there is still only one bridge out!

I'm thinking, maybe if desperate, the northern barrier north of Corollas to Virginia could be taken down. As I recall, there is a small bridge leading up to it (over water) and then a large metal barrier across the states line. Can't recall if there is a road on the VA side to allow cars to pass.

This is why many have talked about a second bridge out of OBX for years.

There are acutally a couple of bridges off, but all center around Manteo/Kill Devil Hills/Kitty Hawk. The problem is that the only highway from Hatteras north to Manteo floods, and the areas north of Kitty Kawk get cut-off as well. There is a ferry up north, but of course you cant use that in a storm. You would have to have 4 wheel drive to even attempt to drive north to Virginia Beach, and I really dont think you could make it. They don't call that area Wash Woods for nothing...

[kamqercam]

Sorry if this has been posted already.

"Gov. Bev Perdue issued a state of emergency Thursday for all counties east of Interstate 95 as thousands of people were fleeing the coast due to mandatory evacuations ahead of Hurricane Irene."

BTW My kids first day of school was today... We have decided to stay here (Between Oak Island and Wilmington). Taking the kids to their grandparents about 100miles inland. Thinking about holding the kids out of school tomorrow. Dunno if they are going to cancel or not.

[WilmingtonSandbar]

This is making me crazy...don't know if the kids should head out of Wilmington or not at this point.

New Hanover county is declaring a state of emergency beginning tomorrow at 6. County Schools are on half day. I would expect that after the 11am update UNCW will announce changes to their class schedule tomorrow. If classes aren't canceled for the whole day, I would expect them to be canceled after a certain time. I would recommend to you to tell your daughters, no matter how much fun their friends are going to make it sound that they need to head to Charlotte as soon as they get out of class or when UNCW cancels them. I stayed about 300 feet from UNCW for the hurricanes of the 90s and I can assure you that there is significant and dangerous flooding in that area of Wilmington. Just my recommendation.

[Texas Snowman]

Just from the anecdotal comments on this forum and responses from our friends and family .... geez, I'm very concerned that millions of people won't be ready for Irene.

Me too. While I am hoping that this will not be Katrina II, the problem is that there are gazillions of people in harm's way if forecast model tracks hold true. The potential flooding in Jersey and NYC is just downright scary when you consider how many people are/will be there.

And for North Carolina, wow. Big blow coming for sure. Outer Banks are going to get hammered.

[ozonepete]

Does anyone have a link where you can type in your location and get a storm surge potential reading. Like say you can type in New York City and Category 1 and then get the potential storm surge rise.

USe this that Stephanie posted before. Just drag on map to your area and zoom, then select hurr cat strength from drop down. Awesome.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ssurge/risk/index.shtml?gm

[Texas Snowman]

Per the OBX - Isn't it quite possible for a new inlet to be cut into the islands per Irene surge? I've seen it happen in the Abacos and along the southwest coast of FL.

Absolutely. When Hurricane Brett (Cat 4) rolled across South Padre Island in 1999, there were something like 30+ new cuts through the island from the Gulf to the Laguna Madre. Many of those sanded back in over the following year or two but a strong storm pushing a lot of water can do some amazing things.