MR Prognostic Outlook and possible outcomes.

[Stormsfury]

Tropical Weather Prognostication
August 28th, 2003 - Issued 11:30 pm EDT

A lot of activity to cover and some possibilities.

First and foremost ... Fabian ...

I've seen a lot of speculation today in regards to Fabian having the potential of another analog year ... 1960 ... and of course, that year featured one lone CV storm. Hurricane Donna.

There are a lot of possibilities, especially 12 days out ...
Let's not forget that area NW of Fabian ... a couple of models, the MM5, and even the 18z GFDL late in the forecast period for Fabian close off a low pressure NW of Fabian (BTW, this is invest 93L) and run it west ... in this scenario, this would greatly influence the future track of Fabian. The only thing that's absolutely certain about Fabian is that it will reach hurricane status ... outflow is excellent, and SST's are plenty warm.

Remember, the upper-level conditions in regards to 93L may become more favorable in the next day or two and the system continues to generate deep convection despite the nastiness of the shear yesterday, and the lessening shear tonight ...

However, the general long-wave pattern depicted by the 06z and 12z GFS earlier today are also quite-feasible with the NAO tanking negative as well, and could also increase the chances of an EC hit.

Again, we are a week and a half away from Fabian even nearing the EC! The average error is 1000 miles!

Ok, next ... 94L ...
Well, what can I say? ... What a difference 24 hours make. The invest is generating some very deep convection, but so far, pressures haven't fallen in the area. However, an anticyclone aloft is developing over the invest and furthermore, the ULL in the GOM is pulling away to the NW which would serve to ENHANCE outflow over the invest. My prognostic and best educated guess is to say 94L will be a tropical cyclone within 48 hours (barring land interaction). The heat potential and heat content in this area is outstanding in regarding to TC cyclogenesis. EURO paints a TX hit for the 3rd night in a row, and with some consensus from the ETA (although much quicker). My best estimate is that the Texas coastline needs to pay close attention to the future of 94L in the coming days. I do need to bring up Louisiana as the CMC (Canadian) bring up the possibility of a LA landfall, but IMO, is too far east with this scenario.

Now...93L...
Despite the nasty shear which has plagued this area 1000 miles NE of the Caribbean Islands, the system continues to generate some deep convection and has shown some resiliency. Winds are forecast to become more favorable in the next 36-48 hours and a couple of models, the MM5, and the GFDL, along with the NOGAPS develop 93L in the next few days, which would have a significant impact on Fabian's track by opening up a weakness in the subtropical ridge and Fabian being drawn northward.
IMO, the solutions cannot be counted or discounted either. Let me add the MM5's solution is quite aggressive, and overdone and also WAY TOO SLOW with Fabian.

http://met.psu.edu/trop-cgi/45km.cgi?ti ... =Animation

Lastly...African wave poised to come off of Africa ...
The earlier runs of the GFS, EURO, Canadian, and NOGAPS all offer solutions of the current wave developing in the next few days, with the GFS and the Canadian the most aggressive. The EURO holds on to the feature nicely but not excessively strong. This wave was shown well by Dakar soundings along with a 4 mb pressure drop in 24 hours. IMO, conditions should be favorable for a possible TC in the next few days as the wave moves off the African coast.

SF

[Guest]

I've lived on the S. Texas coast since 1975 and I just don't remember this many hits and up coming possibles. Seems strange to be the target for a change. Thanks for the forcast.

[KatDaddy]

Texas will be spared any tropical troubles as the cold front and trough shield Texas from the system. New Orleans and points E should watch this one once the large ULL over the GOM drifts W into NE Mexico.

[vbhoutex]

I've lived on the S. Texas coast since 1975 and I just don't remember this many hits and up coming possibles. Seems strange to be the target for a change. Thanks for the forcast.

I've been in Houston since 1972 and I agree with you!! And who was it that was saying the GOM was going to be quiet this year after a busy year last year?? Well, I think that point is moot now 'cause we know the answer!!!!

To top it off we are still two weeks away from peak of the Hurricane Season and we are on named storm No. 6 with Fabian!! And we could easily have 2 more tropical cyclones to watch and track within the next 48 hours!!! NOW WHERE IS MY COFFEE????? :o :o :o

[bkhusky2]

I live a good ways off the coast, near Birmingham Alabama, and we haven't had any winds from a storm since Opal in 1995, which was pretty nasty. I'd sorta like to have what's left of a hurricane come through here.

[vbhoutex]

Texas will be spared any tropical troubles as the cold front and trough shield Texas from the system. New Orleans and points E should watch this one once the large ULL over the GOM drifts W into NE Mexico.

KatDaddy, I have to disagree with you here. The cold front will be stalling well N of our area while moving to the coast well to our East. I would expect the ULL moving WNW and the ridging behind the front to move whatever develops well to the W of the NO area.

[KatDaddy]

I still say it will be well E but do see your point sa well. Curious to know what our local mets are saying

[GalvestonDuck]

I've lived on the S. Texas coast since 1975 and I just don't remember this many hits and up coming possibles. Seems strange to be the target for a change. Thanks for the forcast.

I've been in Houston since 1972 and I agree with you!! And who was it that was saying the GOM was going to be quiet this year after a busy year last year?? Well, I think that point is moot now 'cause we know the answer!!!!

To top it off we are still two weeks away from peak of the Hurricane Season and we are on named storm No. 6 with Fabian!! And we could easily have 2 more tropical cyclones to watch and track within the next 48 hours!!! NOW WHERE IS MY COFFEE????? :o :o :o

I could be mistaken, but wasn't it Joe Bastardi? Someone posted something that he'd said after Claudette about how Texas was in the clear now for the rest of the season and a lot of us wondered how he could make such a bold statement so early. Then he comes along and is one of the first to mention this threat to TX coming from the Caribbean.

I don't know...I'm still skeptical about it...but prepared nonetheless.

[KatDaddy]

His strike zone is from Corpus Christi to Boothville. Puts us smack in the middle. Could become interesting

Joe says our "Caribbean stew" is a definite threat for a tropical storm or a hurricane for the Texas or Louisiana gulf coast, but he won't get more specific until a LLC comes together.Thinks it'll go in somewhere between Corpus and Boothville, and prelim targets the Lake Charles-Beaumont/PA area (duh...that is midway between the two, Joe!) He believes the models are feeding back a lot of warm air too far north and pulling the system northward too quickly.Landfall at the very earliest late Sun or Mon morning. Oh yeah...and lots and LOTS of rain is a given.

[GalvestonDuck]

Found it:

Here he says we're clear:
http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic ... ardi+texas

and then here he says beware:
http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic ... nama+texas

[Guest]

On channel 2 they said from corpus to new orleans is the area to watch - HIGH PRESSURE is sitting over MS/AL/FL to shield them.

Show on the maps that the steering could send it to us Katdaddy.... better to be prepared then in denial even if it never comes close to us. When JB called this one on Monday - I didn't know what to think - but so far he's been on his game. So how can we argue with it. Unless someone posts differently - I fully expect to see a TS/Hurricane headed NW into the GOM this weekend.

Patricia

[KatDaddy]

Seem to be organizing this AM. Satellite give an impression of a potentially large system.

Ticka could this be the next major hurricane to strike our area?????

[Guest]

Possibly Katdaddy I still think it has to get into the GOM and a LLC develop for the models to initalize it correctly for a more accurate track - but if it is then we need to be prepared and stay on top of things.

Patricia

[alicia-w]

i thought i read in someone else's post that there is a tropical cyclone formation alert already up...had text and graphics associated...

[alicia-w]

http://met.psu.edu/trop-cgi/avntc2.cgi?time=2003082900&field=500mb+Vorticity&hour=Animation

[Johnny]

I'll tell y'all one thing...even if this wave doesn't develop, someone is in for one heck of a rain maker. That's the least that can happen.

I've been paying attention to what other people on here have been saying about the conditions in the Gulf. Very unstable to say the least and when this wave finally get in the GOM....lookout! I'm not trying to hype this up in the least it's just that conditions are very favorable for development.

How strong will this system get? Well of course, it all depends on how long it stays out over waters. Wait and see, wait and see.

KatDaddy, aren't you the one that said there is no way anything will be in the Gulf over Labor Day weekend? I think you repeated this over and over again. Someone, hand Kat a gold plated 'Crow Award'!

Just messin' with ya KatDaddy.

[GalvestonDuck]

In defense of KD (although I know you were just joking with him, Johnny ), it's been my experience in the past that he was usually right when he said something wouldn't come here or at least not as a major threat.

I was on "that other board" for a couple of years before the creation of this one and I was a newbie to the coast and to understanding hurricanes. I remember being scared out of my gourd about Brett because he looked like he was just gonna keep heading north, straight towards Galveston (and that was shortly after I read the history of the 1900 Storm so I was petrified about a 'cane's fury). I didn't quite get it through my skull that he was going to take that sharp turn west to Brownsville until he finally did. After that, I gradually calmed down about storms (I've had a lot of people here at work comment about how this year I'm still watching, but not as obsessive and fearful-sounding about them).

KatDaddy's posts (among quite a few others here) have helped with that. I'm still watching...and waiting...and prepared. But I'm not a panicky mess.

[KatDaddy]

This


One local guy said don't get by TerraMom

far away from a television or radio this weekend. I can feel that something is definitely brewing, but I often get jumpy on Labor Day weekend if there are more than a few puffy clouds in the GoM. I still have a gut feeling this season my surprise us yet, it's really just getting started.