ATL: IRENE - Models
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- BensonTCwatcher
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Thanks for slaying the model graphics Jevo! looks like the gratest variables synoptics-wise are in the next 24 hours, then we are dead on (if not already) for a NC barrier island landfall bewteen Morehead City and Hatteras. GSF Euro and ECMWF are all on top of each other looks like. However, I don't get the feeling many here are really looking at the windfield potential, massive rainfall, and amount of surge this will push into the Pamlico and VA river country a la Chasapeake. Larger storms push more water.
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Anyone know how reliable the ECMWF graphics are on wunderground.com? 12Z ECMWF, according to wunderground, initialized about 10 mb too low in pressure, and brings this down to approximately 912 mb hurricane. Compensating for the 10 mb difference still brings it down to 922. I see other graphics that have 947 as the pressure, so just wondering if the the graphics at wunderground are not quite right! Thanks for the answers!
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- Jevo
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Disclaimer: 50% of the time I have no clue of what I am talking about. Chances are I am taking a less than educated guess that sounds good because 10 years ago I stole Mike Watkins book 'The Hurricane and its Impact'. For official information please direct yourself to the NHC and their cadre of weather geniuses.
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- Jevo
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Disclaimer: 50% of the time I have no clue of what I am talking about. Chances are I am taking a less than educated guess that sounds good because 10 years ago I stole Mike Watkins book 'The Hurricane and its Impact'. For official information please direct yourself to the NHC and their cadre of weather geniuses.
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Re: ATL: IRENE - Models
Ivanhater wrote:Euro looks to track right into New York city
How strong is it projected to be when passing NYC?
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Re: ATL: IRENE - Models
Cat 1 I believe
GreenWinds wrote:Ivanhater wrote:Euro looks to track right into New York city
How strong is it projected to be when passing NYC?
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Re: ATL: IRENE - Models
GreenWinds wrote:Ivanhater wrote:Euro looks to track right into New York city
How strong is it projected to be when passing NYC?
Cat 1 I believe according to the lastest Euro if I understand correctly.
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Re: ATL: IRENE - Models
Probably Cat 1 if it mostly stays offshore...a strong TS if it hits a bunch of land in between (my guess, not official)
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Re: ATL: IRENE - Models
So the Euro seems about the same as the 0z run to my eyes. I can't find the link to compare the different runs. If anyone has it handy I'd be appreciative.
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Re: ATL: IRENE - Models
18z model updates per Colorado State site:


Last edited by Portastorm on Thu Aug 25, 2011 2:42 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Reason: Added sentence of context
Reason: Added sentence of context
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#neversummer
- Jevo
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18z GFS firing up
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Disclaimer: 50% of the time I have no clue of what I am talking about. Chances are I am taking a less than educated guess that sounds good because 10 years ago I stole Mike Watkins book 'The Hurricane and its Impact'. For official information please direct yourself to the NHC and their cadre of weather geniuses.
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- Hybridstorm_November2001
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Re: ATL: IRENE - Models
I'm not buying the more westward track, and here is why:
I feel the Western models could be over deepening the Trough. We will soon see I guess. Right now I'm thinking a track across Eastern Long Island and SE Mass.
The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products
ON A LARGER SCALE...SUBTLE RUN-TO-RUN VARIANCES IN THE TIMING AND
STRENGTH OF A COMPLICATED SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY EVOLVING OFF
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST APPEARS TO PLAY A PIVOTAL ROLE IN THE PATH
OF IRENE DURING THE EARLY STAGES OF THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD. THE
00Z GFS IS NOTICEABLY FASTER AND LESS AMPLIFIED WITH THIS TROUGH
AS IT REACHES THE MIDWEST ON DAY 3 WHILE THE 00Z ECMWF IS SLOWER
AND MORE AMPLIFIED AS IS ITS ENSEMBLE MEAN THE 00Z UKMET/CANADIAN
OFFER INTERMEDIATE SOLUTIONS...WHICH IS A PRUDENT PLACE TO LIE
UNTIL THE TROUGH MOVES INLAND AND CAN BECOME BETTER SAMPLED BY THE
MORE DENSE OBSERVATIONAL NETWORK FOR ASSIMILATION INTO THE MODELS.
UNTIL THEN...SUBTLE RUN-TO-RUN DIFFERENCES ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE.
THIS DIGGING TROF SEEMS TO BE THE MAIN REASON FOR THE ECMWFS MORE
WESTWARD TRACK OVER THE PAST 2 CYCLES OF HURRICANE IRENE AND NEEDS
TO BE CLOSELY WATCHED AS WE GO INTO THE SHORTER RANGE.
AGAIN...REFER TO THE NHC FOR THE LATEST FORECAST OF IRENE.
Source:
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/pmdepd.html
I feel the Western models could be over deepening the Trough. We will soon see I guess. Right now I'm thinking a track across Eastern Long Island and SE Mass.
The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products
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Re: ATL: IRENE - Models
Hybridstorm_November2001 wrote:I'm not buying the more westward track, and here is why:ON A LARGER SCALE...SUBTLE RUN-TO-RUN VARIANCES IN THE TIMING AND
STRENGTH OF A COMPLICATED SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY EVOLVING OFF
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST APPEARS TO PLAY A PIVOTAL ROLE IN THE PATH
OF IRENE DURING THE EARLY STAGES OF THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD. THE
00Z GFS IS NOTICEABLY FASTER AND LESS AMPLIFIED WITH THIS TROUGH
AS IT REACHES THE MIDWEST ON DAY 3 WHILE THE 00Z ECMWF IS SLOWER
AND MORE AMPLIFIED AS IS ITS ENSEMBLE MEAN THE 00Z UKMET/CANADIAN
OFFER INTERMEDIATE SOLUTIONS...WHICH IS A PRUDENT PLACE TO LIE
UNTIL THE TROUGH MOVES INLAND AND CAN BECOME BETTER SAMPLED BY THE
MORE DENSE OBSERVATIONAL NETWORK FOR ASSIMILATION INTO THE MODELS.
UNTIL THEN...SUBTLE RUN-TO-RUN DIFFERENCES ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE.
THIS DIGGING TROF SEEMS TO BE THE MAIN REASON FOR THE ECMWFS MORE
WESTWARD TRACK OVER THE PAST 2 CYCLES OF HURRICANE IRENE AND NEEDS
TO BE CLOSELY WATCHED AS WE GO INTO THE SHORTER RANGE.
AGAIN...REFER TO THE NHC FOR THE LATEST FORECAST OF IRENE.
Source:
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/pmdepd.html
I feel the Western models could be over deepening the Trough. We will soon see I guess. Right now I'm thinking a track across Eastern Long Island and SE Mass.
The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products
Can you put that in english for us non-mets?
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Models have shuifted westwards a little back to maybe an outer Banks strike followed a hit on Lond Island/New York.
going to be a most interesting and worrying few days for the east c oast.
PS, ECM took Earl down to about 912mbs at 30N, so the ECm is known for not weakening storms quickly enough in the mid-latitudes.
going to be a most interesting and worrying few days for the east c oast.
PS, ECM took Earl down to about 912mbs at 30N, so the ECm is known for not weakening storms quickly enough in the mid-latitudes.
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Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
- Hybridstorm_November2001
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Re: ATL: IRENE - Models
GoneBabyGone Irene's final path will be determined by a large and complex Upper Level Trough that is currently moving into the Pacific NW. Some models are deepening the Trough, as it moves through the Midwest to the point it takes on a negative tilt and kind of pulls Irene back west towards the coast as the Trough comes in from the West. Whereas other models keep the Trough weaker, and it kind of nudges Irene ahead of it move towards the East rather than pulling it back towards it.
Last edited by Hybridstorm_November2001 on Thu Aug 25, 2011 4:37 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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