ATL: IRENE - Remnants - Discussion

[Trishasmom]

I'm really scared for all of them. I am trying to spread the message all over that they need to take this seriously and learn from hurricane veterans in the south.

I know Virginia had already started setting up for Irene when we had the earthquake but they did not just ignore Irene and we have shelters being set up already. Where I am we may get some wind and rain since we are about 25 miles west of Williamsburg but my sister is in Newport News and I know they are taking this seriously.

Even those inland might have problems if for no other reason that the power goes out and when that happens we lose water as well. So am filling up my jugs and cleaning the tub so I can store water there if it becomes necessary.

[GreenWinds]

Presentation of Irene looks like its improving, track still looks like it may head very close to LI and New York, also yes it is wobbling along a generally due North motion, even wobbles could make quite a large difference to the eventual track of Irene and the possible threat to the east coast cities.

So you think Irene might just graze the eastern tip of Long Island? It sounds like you are thinking the current NHC track which takes Irene through western LI will be shifted to eastward to just off the eastern end of LI.

Because of the recent N movement, Irene may miss forecast points to the east and possibly be better news for NYC?

[littlevince]

000
URNT15 KNHC 252146
AF306 2109A IRENE HDOB 38 20110825
213530 2544N 07836W 6967 03092 9979 +097 +046 314054 056 037 000 00
213600 2543N 07837W 6969 03092 9983 +097 +046 316052 053 036 000 03
213630 2542N 07839W 6967 03098 9981 +100 +046 315053 053 035 000 03
213700 2541N 07840W 6966 03102 9987 +098 +046 315053 054 034 000 03
213730 2539N 07841W 6967 03101 9993 +095 +046 315050 051 033 000 03
213800 2538N 07843W 6969 03101 9995 +095 +046 312049 050 033 000 00
213830 2537N 07844W 6965 03108 9997 +094 +045 313050 051 033 000 03
213900 2536N 07845W 6971 03101 9999 +094 +044 315051 051 034 000 03
213930 2535N 07846W 6966 03109 9999 +096 +044 315050 051 033 000 03
214000 2533N 07847W 6959 03117 0001 +094 +044 311048 048 /// /// 03
214030 2532N 07846W 6969 03106 0005 +091 +044 312047 048 /// /// 03
214100 2533N 07844W 6969 03107 0001 +094 +044 310046 046 029 000 03
214130 2534N 07842W 6966 03107 9996 +096 +044 309048 049 033 000 03
214200 2534N 07840W 6966 03106 9994 +097 +043 309050 050 034 000 03
214230 2534N 07838W 6969 03102 9995 +094 +043 308050 050 035 000 00
214300 2535N 07836W 6967 03102 0002 +087 +042 306049 050 036 000 00
214330 2535N 07834W 6965 03106 0006 +085 +042 303049 049 036 000 00
214400 2536N 07832W 6967 03103 9995 +095 +042 304050 050 037 000 03
214430 2536N 07830W 6967 03103 9996 +094 +042 304050 050 037 000 03
214500 2536N 07828W 6970 03097 9990 +097 +042 305050 051 038 000 03
$$
;

[Dave]

NOAA2

[KWT]

GreenWinds, I only said near because I'm not totally sure of the track and neither are the models, however odds are this will hit Long Island and the chances of at least TS winds in NYC are probably quite high...my gut would say 50-60kts winds sustained in NYC IF the current track held.

The only thing I'll say is if there will be a track error, it will be to the east not the west IMO.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[tolakram]

Presentation of Irene looks like its improving, track still looks like it may head very close to LI and New York, also yes it is wobbling along a generally due North motion, even wobbles could make quite a large difference to the eventual track of Irene and the possible threat to the east coast cities.

So you think Irene might just graze the eastern tip of Long Island?

Because of the recent N movement, Irene may miss forecast points to the east and possibly be better news for NYC?

It's important to look at overall movement during the day rather than a few hours of wobbling back and forth. Stay on top of the NHC forecast track and you'll have the best forecast.

[johngaltfla]

My big concern? EWRC is over and she's moving into the Gulf Stream with favorable conditions. Just my opinion, but remember with Mr. Charley off our coast it went from a Cat 2 to a Cat 4 in 2 hours. This is a very disconcerting path for Irene, IMHO.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Mello1]

Presentation of Irene looks like its improving, track still looks like it may head very close to LI and New York, also yes it is wobbling along a generally due North motion, even wobbles could make quite a large difference to the eventual track of Irene and the possible threat to the east coast cities.

So you think Irene might just graze the eastern tip of Long Island? It sounds like you are thinking the current NHC track which takes Irene through western LI will be shifted to eastward to just off the eastern end of LI.

Because of the recent N movement, Irene may miss forecast points to the east and possibly be better news for NYC?

'Just my opinion, not an expert.'

NYC is in the cone and given that this storm is so huge, there will be some impact. How severe will depend on final tracking and intensity.

[Dave]

000
URNT15 KWBC 252148
NOAA2 2309A IRENE HDOB 12 20110825
213900 2818N 07548W 7517 02446 9976 +123 +126 152081 082 053 003 00
213930 2820N 07546W 7522 02443 9977 +125 +129 152078 081 051 008 00
214000 2821N 07544W 7518 02451 9980 +125 +130 151075 076 054 008 00
214030 2823N 07543W 7513 02464 9992 +119 //// 147074 075 052 009 05
214100 2825N 07542W 7527 02451 9997 +119 //// 141083 086 /// /// 05
214130 2827N 07543W 7544 02433 9995 +122 //// 142079 081 /// /// 05
214200 2829N 07546W 7518 02459 9988 +126 +131 144081 082 054 004 03
214230 2830N 07549W 7534 02440 9989 +124 //// 135084 088 053 006 01
214300 2830N 07551W 7506 02469 9983 +125 //// 131079 081 054 009 01
214330 2831N 07554W 7519 02454 9980 +129 //// 130076 078 053 008 01
214400 2832N 07557W 7528 02445 9984 +127 +131 139075 077 050 004 00
214430 2833N 07600W 7542 02430 9984 +128 +128 136074 075 049 002 00
214500 2834N 07602W 7523 02449 9984 +126 +125 137075 076 049 001 00
214530 2835N 07605W 7524 02449 9985 +125 +126 137076 077 050 000 00
214600 2836N 07608W 7522 02448 9983 +124 +124 137078 078 051 000 00
214630 2837N 07611W 7524 02444 9982 +124 +121 136078 078 051 003 00
214700 2837N 07613W 7523 02446 9981 +123 +126 135080 081 051 003 00
214730 2838N 07616W 7527 02441 9979 +126 +120 132078 078 054 003 00
214800 2839N 07619W 7526 02440 9978 +125 +119 131080 081 053 007 00
214830 2840N 07622W 7529 02437 9975 +126 +126 132081 085 056 010 00

[Aja]

Based on the size of hurricane Irene, (Not as compact as many other hurricanes) Is this the possible reason for the unusual eye issues with this storm?
____________________
The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. Just my personal opinion. For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Dave]

000
UZNT13 KWBC 252139
XXAA 75218 99271 70772 08077 99948 27405 23009 00/// ///// /////
92216 26002 24506 85962 23006 22006 88999 77999
31313 09608 82113
51515 10167 07775
61616 NOAA2 2309A IRENE OB 06
62626 REL 2711N07715W 211358 SPG 2711N07715W 211702 WL150 24008 0
85 DLM WND 21504 947753 MBL WND 24006 EYE=
XXBB 75218 99271 70772 08077 00948 27405 11942 27005 22917 25602
33752 19628
21212 00948 23009 11946 22509 22752 19505
31313 09608 82113
51515 10167 07775
61616 NOAA2 2309A IRENE OB 06
62626 REL 2711N07715W 211358 SPG 2711N07715W 211702 WL150 24008 0
85 DLM WND 21504 947753 MBL WND 24006 EYE=

[CronkPSU]

convection has definitely picked up since i posted they were waning an hour ago...looks as good as ever now!....errrr bad, you know what i mean

[Ivanhater]

Eye becoming tighter

[KWT]

Yeah looks pretty good right now, also wobbled back to slightly NNW from the looks of things, motion broadly looks to be something around 355 overall...

Also pretty large as well!!

[littlevince]

000
URNT15 KNHC 252155
AF306 2109A IRENE HDOB 39 20110825
214530 2537N 07825W 6966 03098 9990 +095 +041 303051 052 039 000 03
214600 2537N 07823W 6967 03096 9989 +093 +041 302052 052 039 000 03
214630 2537N 07821W 6969 03087 9985 +093 +041 300051 051 040 000 00
214700 2538N 07819W 6966 03089 9977 +095 +041 298052 054 040 000 03
214730 2538N 07817W 6970 03081 9973 +096 +041 297055 055 041 001 03
214800 2538N 07815W 6967 03083 9971 +097 +041 295055 055 040 000 03
214830 2539N 07812W 6967 03081 9965 +100 +041 294054 054 041 000 03
214900 2539N 07810W 6965 03083 9968 +095 +041 290053 054 042 001 03
214930 2539N 07808W 6969 03078 9967 +096 +041 287054 055 044 000 03
215000 2540N 07806W 6967 03078 9957 +103 +042 287055 055 045 000 03
215030 2540N 07803W 6969 03075 9960 +100 +043 287052 054 046 003 03
215100 2541N 07801W 6965 03080 9969 +093 +042 290053 054 041 000 03
215130 2541N 07759W 6969 03072 9968 +091 +042 290054 055 042 000 03
215200 2541N 07757W 6967 03073 9965 +094 +042 289056 057 042 001 00
215230 2542N 07754W 6967 03073 9950 +103 +042 287058 059 042 000 03
215300 2542N 07752W 6967 03069 9934 +115 +043 283061 061 045 000 03
215330 2542N 07750W 6975 03058 9951 +101 +043 284061 062 050 001 03
215400 2543N 07747W 6963 03073 9949 +100 +043 283062 062 045 000 03
215430 2543N 07745W 6965 03069 9947 +100 +044 282062 063 047 001 03
215500 2544N 07743W 6965 03068 9947 +100 +044 279064 065 048 000 03
$$
;

[lilac]

I live in the middle of Long Island. What type of winds do you think we would have up here? Wouldn't the storm weaken when it hits land?

[CrazyC83]

Still don't want to think the intensity is higher than 90-95 kt due to the SFMR.

[Dave]

NOAA2

[KWT]

Still don't want to think the intensity is higher than 90-95 kt due to the SFMR.

I think given the 111kts at FL they'll probably keep it at 100kts, and I think the recent improvement in presentation will probably keep them at 100kts+ for the time being anyway.

[maxintensity]

Still don't want to think the intensity is higher than 90-95 kt due to the SFMR.

IMO 947mb and 111kts FL is a cat 3 hurricane. Gotta look at the totality of the evidence and consider the SFMR in light of all the data.