ATL: IRENE - Models

[Jevo]

18z GFS Initialized


18z GFS +12

[Jevo]

18z GFS +24

[KWT]

Even small deviations of the track is going to make a huge difference, so whilst the models are now very closely knit in terms of track, the differences are important.

[InstantWeatherMaps]

18Z GFS 36

[shaggy]

Even small deviations of the track is going to make a huge difference, so whilst the models are now very closely knit in terms of track, the differences are important.

Local TV mets are using the "highway 17" corridor as the line that seperates 100+ winds to the east of that and 75+ to the west. That highway is only 11 miles to me east so any shift left could change my weather significantly. Believe me the winds don't know where that road is and using that as a cutoff may fool some people because areas just west of there could still get hammered.


GFS looks west early?

[ncweatherwizard]

Here's a link to the previous GFS forecasts for 08/26, 00Z--just a couple hours away. Each frame is a different run of the GFS, and the later frames are more recent forecasts. You can see how the shortwave trough in western Canada is forecasted a little differently in each run:

http://www.atmos.uw.edu/~ovens/loops/wx ... 600///+-st

The way to get to this is via here:

http://www.atmos.uw.edu/~ovens/loops/wx ... 00+/-168//

In the top right, you'll see "D(model)/Dt Valid:" Beneath that, pick a date and time, and click the D(model)... button. You can see how the GFS has changed for its forecast at that time from run to run.

[KWT]

It does look a touch west though I've not made a really good comprasion check as of the moment.

[Jevo]

18Z gfs +42

[Jevo]

18z GFS +48 .. landfall

[KWT]

Hmmm going to be a very close call as to whether it hits NC or not on this 18z run...will probaqbly hit the outer banks...

Also going to be interesting to see what it does afterwards.

[Jevo]

18z GFS +54

[KWT]

So it does just about make landfall but its a very close call from the looks of things...

[InstantWeatherMaps]

18Z GFS 60

[InstantWeatherMaps]

18Z GFS 72: Landfall again

[Jevo]

18z GFS +66

[Jevo]

18z GFS +75 Going to a Red Sox Game

[Jevo]

GFS 18z +84 Quick stop for some Maine Lobster before heading into the Grand Banks

[GreenWinds]

18Z GFS 72: Landfall again
http://img808.imageshack.us/img808/9222 ... sl072i.gif

Better news for NYC...with Irene making landfall on the eastern end of LI, storm surge looks to not be as much of an issue. I think the east shifts will continue. Prove me wrong but synoptic patterns have to be almost perfect to position a hurricane over NYC. Either land interactions over NC/VA will weaken it considerably or the trough's strength is being underestimated and this will miss LI to the east.


*edited by southerngale to remove IMG tags from quoted post

[KWT]

LI would still get quite a good hit thouhg, the wsystem is pretty large and the northern side is pretty strong, even if by some chancfe it does go past LI to the east, your still going to get the northern and western side, and probably come rather close to the N.Eyewall.

ECM is a little further west to balance things out.

[cheezyWXguy]

18Z GFS 72: Landfall again
http://img808.imageshack.us/img808/9222 ... sl072i.gif

Better news for NYC...with Irene making landfall on the eastern end of LI, storm surge looks to not be as much of an issue. I think the east shifts will continue. Prove me wrong but synoptic patterns have to be almost perfect to position a hurricane over NYC. Either land interactions over NC/VA will weaken it considerably or the trough's strength is being underestimated and this will miss LI to the east.

Actually Im not sure thats entirely true. With such a large storm, it may not make much of a difference over such a small distance. Also, as the system approaches from the south, winds in the northern quadrant of the storm would be moving east to west, forcing the surge westward as well before landfall. Since this is such a large storm, there would still likely be a large surge into NYC area, which is still very significant even if the the worst of the surge goes out to eastern long island. Im not trying scare people or whatever, just making sure this dangerous situation is not minimized. Also at this range out, it would not be surprising to see the storm deviate either east or west from that forecast landfall point.