ATL: IRENE - Models
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Janie2006
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Re: ATL: IRENE - Models
GFS 18Z+75 has Boston in that right-front quadrant....not a good place be.
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vacanechaser
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Re:
CrazyC83 wrote:Overall trend today is steady on track?
sort of... small shifts in the forecast westward.. and Irene seems to be holding to that track as it looks right now
Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team
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Jevo
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Re:
CrazyC83 wrote:Overall trend today is steady on track?
yeah.. ECMWF stutters West... GFS stutters East.... neither really makes any moves over 100 miles either way... Split the middle and it looks like Irene is going open up some new channels in the OBX and then make her debut on Broadway.. Hopefully people heed the warnings
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Disclaimer: 50% of the time I have no clue of what I am talking about. Chances are I am taking a less than educated guess that sounds good because 10 years ago I stole Mike Watkins book 'The Hurricane and its Impact'. For official information please direct yourself to the NHC and their cadre of weather geniuses.
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Jevo
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Re: ATL: IRENE - Models
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Disclaimer: 50% of the time I have no clue of what I am talking about. Chances are I am taking a less than educated guess that sounds good because 10 years ago I stole Mike Watkins book 'The Hurricane and its Impact'. For official information please direct yourself to the NHC and their cadre of weather geniuses.
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Stephanie
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Re: Re:
Jevo wrote:CrazyC83 wrote:Overall trend today is steady on track?
yeah.. ECMWF stutters West... GFS stutters East.... neither really makes any moves over 100 miles either way... Split the middle and it looks like Irene is going open up some new channels in the OBX and then make her debut on Broadway.. Hopefully people heed the warnings
LOL...funny, but it's not. Thanks for the laugh!
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Jevo
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Disclaimer: 50% of the time I have no clue of what I am talking about. Chances are I am taking a less than educated guess that sounds good because 10 years ago I stole Mike Watkins book 'The Hurricane and its Impact'. For official information please direct yourself to the NHC and their cadre of weather geniuses.
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TropicalWXMA
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Hurricaneman
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Re: ATL: IRENE - Models
The GFDL basicly goes straight north from its current position, I dont see that happening at all
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Re: ATL: IRENE - Models
Stephanie wrote:Jevo - so those last two images - where the heck is NJ???
I have been on the phone all night with my family in NJ, they are up and down the east coast, mostly in Belmar, Brick township, Lakewood and Asbury Park. Then with my family in Brooklyn, thank god at least half of them are listening and are making plans to leave. The ironic thing is that my aunt and uncle who have a house in pt pleasant are actually in Puerto Rico right now and dealt with her there, but they are worried about their house in brick.
Everyone please heed the warnings of your local emergency agencies and leave if they tell you. Last but not least please stay safe and you are all in my prayers!!!!!
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Jevo
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yeah Im not biased.. I post em all and let people decide on their own... I remember back in 02-05 GFDL was king
heres +78
18z GFDL +78
Uploaded with ImageShack.us
heres +78
18z GFDL +78
Uploaded with ImageShack.us
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Disclaimer: 50% of the time I have no clue of what I am talking about. Chances are I am taking a less than educated guess that sounds good because 10 years ago I stole Mike Watkins book 'The Hurricane and its Impact'. For official information please direct yourself to the NHC and their cadre of weather geniuses.
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Stephanie
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Re: ATL: IRENE - Models
sweetpea wrote:Stephanie wrote:Jevo - so those last two images - where the heck is NJ???
I have been on the phone all night with my family in NJ, they are up and down the east coast, mostly in Belmar, Brick township, Lakewood and Asbury Park. Then with my family in Brooklyn, thank god at least half of them are listening and are making plans to leave. The ironic thing is that my aunt and uncle who have a house in pt pleasant are actually in Puerto Rico right now and dealt with her there, but they are worried about their house in brick.
Everyone please heed the warnings of your local emergency agencies and leave if they tell you. Last but not least please stay safe and you are all in my prayers!!!!!
I'm glad that your family is taking this seriously. Your aunt and uncle would probably have to leave their house in Pt. Pleasant anyway, so there's really nothing that they would be able to do, regardless of where they are.
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Jevo
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Re: ATL: IRENE - Models
Stephanie wrote:Jevo - so those last two images - where the heck is NJ???
Gone......
heheh under the tightly packed pressure gradient
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Disclaimer: 50% of the time I have no clue of what I am talking about. Chances are I am taking a less than educated guess that sounds good because 10 years ago I stole Mike Watkins book 'The Hurricane and its Impact'. For official information please direct yourself to the NHC and their cadre of weather geniuses.
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Blown Away
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Re: ATL: IRENE - Models
18z guidance will be taking Irene over alot of land. IMO Irene will bring strong TS/Low Cat 1 winds to the NE but not bigtime hurricane winds.
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GreenWinds
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Re:
In all honesty, Irene's presentation on IR satellite doesn't impress me as much as some Caribbean and GOM monsters I've seen. Wilma and Katrina looked 10x better not too mention several others.
Last edited by GreenWinds on Thu Aug 25, 2011 8:50 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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GreenWinds
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Re: ATL: IRENE - Models
Blown Away wrote:18z guidance will be taking Irene over alot of land. IMO Irene will bring strong TS/Low Cat 1 winds to the NE but not bigtime hurricane winds.
Umm, 18z and 12z guidance look almost the same. Maybe a little more inland through NC but looks to stay offshore VA and make a second landfall on central NJ coast. And Irene will be moving very fast. And oh yeah, she is just about to trek over gulfstream waters and might intensify more than what the forecast calls for, as KWT alluded to earlier.
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Re: ATL: IRENE - Models
Let's hope that Irene weakens a great deal. 
Usually with those models, the hurricane tends to right of them. Perhaps, it will go further east?
Usually with those models, the hurricane tends to right of them. Perhaps, it will go further east?
Last edited by Ptarmigan on Thu Aug 25, 2011 8:58 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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