My Forecast for TD10 #2

[DelStormLover]

NOTICE:THIS FORECAST IS NOT OFFICIAL AND IS INTENDED FOR RECREATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO THE FORECAST FROM THE NHC FOR OFFICIAL FORECAST.
AT 5PM AST, THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FABIAN WAS CENTERED NEAR 15.19 NORTH, 39.18 WEST OR ABOUT 2731 MILES AWAY FROM LEWES, DELAWARE. WINDS ARE ESTIMATED NEAR 40 KNOTS. PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED NEAR 1004 MILLIBARS.
TS FABIAN IS MOVING TO THE WEST AT ABOUT 19 KNOTS.
TS FABIAN IS FORECASTED TO BECOME HURRICANE FABIAN BY AUGUST 31ST.
IT IS EARLY, BUT PRELIMINARY INDICATIONS MAY HAVE TS FABIAN BECOMING A POSSIBLE MAJOR HURRICANE BY ABOUT SEPTEMBER 7TH OR 8TH.
THE GFS COMPUTER MODEL PAINTS A VERY SCARY SCANARIO.......BY ABOUT SEPTEMBER 9TH OR 10TH, IT FORECASTS PRESENT TS FABIAN TO BE OFF THE COAST OF FLORIDA AS A POSSIBLE CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE......TS FABIAN WILL BE FORCED UP THE COAST BETWEEN A TROUGH AND A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM....THE GFS FORECASTS TS FABIAN TO MAKE LANDFALL SOME TIME SEPTEMBER 11TH OR 12TH BETWEEN NC AND VA............CAN YOU SAY DONNA?
THIS STORM BEARS SOME SIMILARITY'S TO DONNA IN 1960,HAZEL IN 1954,THE CHESAPEAKE-POTOMAC HURRICANE OF 1933, AND HURRICANE FLOYD IN 1999.
RESIDENTS FROM FLORIDA TO MASSACHUSETTS SHOULD CONTINUE TO WATCH TS FABIAN CLOSELY,BUT ESPECIALLY RESIDENTS FROM SOUTH CAROLINA TO NEW JERSEY.
ATTM,I HAVE 3 SCENARIOS I BELIEVE TO BE THE MOST LIKELY TRACKS FOR TS FABIAN.
TRACK #1:A SC-NC LAND FALL THEN TRACKING UP INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC,ESPECIALLY VIRGINIA. I GIVE THIS TRACK A 45% CHANCE OF HAPPENING
TRACK#2:A FLORIDA LANDFALL THEN INTO THE GOM......THIS TRACK WOULD BE VERY ANDREW-LIKE......I GIVE THIS TRACK A 40% CHANCE OF HAPPENING.
TRACK #3: A WEST TRACK THROUGH THE FLORIDA STRAITS INTO THE GOM. I GIVE THIS TRACK A 15% CHANCE OF HAPPENING ATTM.

[cycloneye]

Hey you got it wrong there IT IS FABIAN my friend.

[DelStormLover]

Edited to show changes

[cycloneye]

Ok

[Colin]

I sure hope this doesn't happen... Right in time for my birthday... :o (September 10th)

[msbee]

delstormlover
you got any predicitions about whether or not this storm will pass north of the caribbean islands or come over the Northern Caribbean islands?
what do you think?

[DelStormLover]

msbbe: firstly, i must say its quite interesting to see someone on here posting from the caribbean! welcome aborad!
Anyway, You say youre in the lesser antillies, hmmm....id have to say the lesser antilles will only get finrge efeects, if any from fabian.
But, dont take my forecast as gospel. please refer to the NHC for making decisions based on any forecast.

[msbee]

thanks delstormlover
I know you are only making guesses..just like the rest of us
those of us in the islands love this message board.. many of us think of nothing but the weather from June through November