ATL: IRENE - Remnants - Discussion

[GCANE]

Latest Precip Radar from TRMM is showing the entire outer band as a huge hot tower!!

http://64.19.142.10/www.nrlmry.navy.mil ... W.17pc.jpg

[Dave]

Got another mission enroute now, anyone wants to take it go for it. AF 304

Thank you WeatherSnoop!

[weatherSnoop]

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[Mello1]

How crazy...

MTA Chairman Jay Walder said that if Hurricane Irene continues on the path that is forecast, the entire system would be shut down by Saturday afternoon. Bloomberg warned there would likely be no mass transit until midday Monday, at the earliest.

From nbcnewyork.com.

I'm not surprised by this at all. Given the age of the system and the topography of the area, an innudation of sea water is bad news. They may be lucky to get it open by Monday if this storm hits just wrong for them.

[Dave]

000
UZNT13 KWBC 260217
XXAA 76028 99278 70774 08077 99942 28020 18005 00/// ///// /////
92165 26613 14006 85912 22811 13506 88999 77999
31313 09608 80158
51515 10167 07775
61616 NOAA2 2309A IRENE OB 34
62626 REL 2782N07735W 015814 SPG 2783N07736W 020106 WL150 14506 0
85 DLM WND 14504 941752 MBL WND 14506 EYE=

XXBB 76028 99278 70774 08077 00942 28020 11924 26613 22848 22810
33798 22044 44752 20238
21212 00942 18005 11940 18003 22939 13008 33752 13003
31313 09608 80158
51515 10167 07775
61616 NOAA2 2309A IRENE OB 34
62626 REL 2782N07735W 015814 SPG 2783N07736W 020106 WL150 14506 0
85 DLM WND 14504 941752 MBL WND 14506 EYE=

[weatherSnoop]

AF304 2409A IRENE HDOB 08 20110826
022030 2940N 08158W 3759 08042 0421 -188 -383 017004 004 /// /// 03
022100 2939N 08155W 3759 08041 0422 -189 -363 031004 004 /// /// 03
022130 2939N 08152W 3758 08042 0422 -190 -373 032004 005 /// /// 03
022200 2938N 08149W 3759 08041 0422 -190 -367 025005 005 /// /// 03
022230 2937N 08146W 3759 08040 0421 -190 -322 001006 006 /// /// 03
022300 2937N 08143W 3759 08041 0421 -190 -320 353005 006 /// /// 03
022330 2936N 08140W 3759 08041 0421 -190 -297 351006 006 /// /// 03
022400 2935N 08137W 3758 08043 0421 -190 -323 356006 006 /// /// 03
022430 2935N 08134W 3759 08040 0420 -189 -338 001007 007 /// /// 03
022500 2934N 08131W 3761 08037 0420 -185 -330 352008 008 /// /// 03
022530 2934N 08128W 3759 08041 0420 -184 -329 353009 009 /// /// 03
022600 2933N 08125W 3759 08040 0420 -180 -335 356009 009 /// /// 03
022630 2932N 08122W 3758 08041 0420 -182 -337 002010 010 /// /// 03
022700 2932N 08119W 3760 08037 0419 -181 -355 002010 011 /// /// 03
022730 2931N 08116W 3758 08042 0419 -182 -378 008011 011 /// /// 03
022800 2930N 08113W 3759 08038 0419 -180 -369 011011 012 /// /// 03
022830 2930N 08110W 3761 08037 0419 -180 -366 011011 011 /// /// 03
022900 2929N 08107W 3758 08042 0420 -180 -341 013011 012 /// /// 03
022930 2928N 08104W 3759 08038 0420 -176 -348 018012 012 /// /// 03
023000 2928N 08101W 3759 08040 0420 -175 -371 019012 013 /// /// 03

[HurrMark]

NHC will probably will keep Irene at 115 mph given the deepening and better presentation...although I do agree that it is probably a cat-2 right now.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[psyclone]

This is a "run for your life" storm in my view. anyone that opts to stay in a location like the outer banks is literally gambling with their life imo. a large water rise topped by huge battering waves could raze some of these low lying islands... and anyone who opted to stay. my hope tomorrow is to see news footage of people fleeing these life threatening zones.

[melhow]

This is all true, but the shelf off the east coast is different than the upper TX coast. That being said, Irene will be impacting the area during astro high tides. Unlike the TX coast where the tidal range is 1-2 feet at most, along the NE coast this range can be 5-6 feet, so timing of high tides will be very important.

A historic event in the making which will require a significant and coordinated national, state, and local response.

South shore Long Island will be at high tide early AM Sunday:

Jones Inlet (Point Lookout), Long Island, New York
40.5867° N, 73.5783° W

2011-08-28 7:26 AM EDT 4.16 feet High Tide

http://www.mobilegeographics.com:81/locations/2924.html

[Dave]

NOAA2

[jeff]

This is all true, but the shelf off the east coast is different than the upper TX coast. That being said, Irene will be impacting the area during astro high tides. Unlike the TX coast where the tidal range is 1-2 feet at most, along the NE coast this range can be 5-6 feet, so timing of high tides will be very important.

A historic event in the making which will require a significant and coordinated national response.

I was thinking about that...high tide in New York is roughly 8 PM Sunday, and low tide is roughly 2 PM. If Irene arrives a little earlier than currently forecasted (late afternoon Sunday)...this could be a saving grace. If it is delayed, however, it could be a totally different story.

Given the very large size and large swell (wave run-up) prior, the high tides prior to Sunday evening may get trapped on the coast allowing several tide cycles to gradually built the water level. This happens with big hurricanes in the Gulf, but then the Gulf is more of a closed system than the W ATL. A lot of water is going to be trapped in the concave shape of the coast near NYC and western Long Island/northern New Jersey.

[weatherSnoop]

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[CrazyC83]

I agree this is only a Cat 2 right now.

[ConvergenceZone]

I"m really getting confused with these comments. 2 hours ago all I heard was how Irene was making a run at intensification, some even used the term, "bombing". Now all I'm hearing is that it's struggling with dry air and might be a Cat 2.... so which one is it people??? It can't be both.....

[weatherSnoop]

URNT15 KNHC 260240
AF304 2409A IRENE HDOB 09 20110826
023030 2927N 08058W 3758 08041 0419 -175 -384 017013 013 /// /// 03
023100 2926N 08055W 3760 08037 0419 -175 -380 017013 013 /// /// 03
023130 2926N 08052W 3759 08037 0418 -175 -389 017013 014 /// /// 03
023200 2925N 08049W 3759 08036 0417 -175 -374 012014 015 /// /// 03
023230 2924N 08046W 3759 08037 0418 -172 -372 009015 016 /// /// 03
023300 2924N 08043W 3759 08037 0418 -175 -387 015016 016 /// /// 03
023330 2923N 08040W 3759 08038 0418 -175 -352 018015 016 /// /// 03
023400 2922N 08037W 3758 08037 0417 -175 -342 017016 016 /// /// 03
023430 2922N 08034W 3759 08037 0416 -174 -344 011017 017 /// /// 03
023500 2921N 08032W 3759 08035 0415 -173 -324 013018 018 /// /// 03
023530 2920N 08029W 3761 08030 0414 -167 -299 015017 019 /// /// 03
023600 2920N 08026W 3761 08030 0413 -157 -288 003013 013 /// /// 03
023630 2919N 08023W 3758 08033 0412 -158 -288 355012 013 /// /// 03
023700 2918N 08020W 3761 08027 0412 -159 -276 356013 014 /// /// 03
023730 2918N 08017W 3758 08032 0411 -164 -241 359013 013 /// /// 03
023800 2917N 08014W 3760 08028 0410 -168 -227 354015 017 /// /// 03
023830 2916N 08011W 3759 08027 0409 -166 -234 348016 018 /// /// 03
023900 2916N 08008W 3756 08033 0408 -164 -234 354018 018 /// /// 03
023930 2915N 08005W 3759 08028 0407 -166 -226 358021 022 /// /// 03
024000 2914N 08002W 3754 08036 0406 -173 -208 012022 024 /// /// 03

[SNOW_JOKE]

Wave readings of +30ft now offshore Cape Canaveral. This isn't even ahead of the surge but on the periphery. I say those on the Carolinas coast, if you haven't already gotten out. GET OUT.

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/show_plot.php? ... _label=EDT

[Sanibel]

I"m really getting confused with these comments. 2 hours ago all I heard was how Irene was making a run at intensification, some even used the term, "bombing". Now all I'm hearing is that it's struggling with dry air and might be a Cat 2.... so which one is it people??? It can't be both.....

As the Gulf storms taught us, when in doubt go by pressure. It never lies...

[ConvergenceZone]

I agree this is only a Cat 2 right now.

If it is only a cat 2, that means it will probably landfall at NC as a Cat 1 and then hopefully just a tropical storm by the time it landfalls the 2nd time....

[HurrMark]

I"m really getting confused with these comments. 2 hours ago all I heard was how Irene was making a run at intensification, some even used the term, "bombing". Now all I'm hearing is that it's struggling with dry air and might be a Cat 2.... so which one is it people??? It can't be both.....

Its pressure is dropping, for sure, but that has not yet translated to stronger winds near the surface. Not saying it can't, but recon hasn't found anything that would confirm stronger winds.

[Hurricaneman]

Its basicly this, the pressures are dropping quickly, but the winds are lagging behind and not going up