ATL: IRENE - Remnants - Discussion

[maryellen40]

This is going to be a historic event.

[Meteorcane]

Her eye seems to be contracting a lot in recent images could be a bad sign.

[Meteorcane]

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT09/refresh/AL0911W+gif/211943W_sm.gif

Would be a disaster if she indeed maintained hurricane intensity up to central Mass.

[Dave]

I got your message WeatherSnoop...will help you tomorrow night if you need it...you are doing fine though!

525
URNT15 KNHC 260300
AF304 2409A IRENE HDOB 11 20110826
025030 2901N 07904W 6970 03088 9983 +091 +069 029049 049 /// /// 03
025100 2900N 07902W 6963 03094 9981 +091 +071 029048 049 049 000 03
025130 2900N 07900W 6969 03084 9975 +093 +071 029049 050 052 001 03
025200 2859N 07858W 6967 03085 9971 +094 +076 036049 050 051 001 03
025230 2857N 07856W 6963 03087 9966 +095 +078 032050 050 049 000 00
025300 2856N 07854W 6969 03076 9964 +093 +077 029049 049 049 000 00
025330 2855N 07852W 6967 03072 9965 +090 +077 027046 047 050 000 03
025400 2853N 07850W 6968 03071 9959 +092 +079 029047 049 051 000 03
025430 2852N 07848W 6979 03057 9947 +102 +079 031048 049 052 000 03
025500 2851N 07846W 6964 03067 9934 +105 +082 031053 055 052 000 03
025530 2850N 07845W 6973 03056 9930 +107 +081 033057 059 053 000 03
025600 2849N 07843W 6970 03056 9926 +107 +082 033056 057 052 001 03
025630 2848N 07841W 6966 03057 9928 +103 +085 035054 055 052 000 03
025700 2847N 07840W 6970 03048 9920 +104 +091 036052 053 051 000 03
025730 2846N 07838W 6965 03051 9915 +107 +081 034053 055 050 001 00
025800 2845N 07836W 6967 03045 9914 +105 +075 034055 056 049 001 03
025830 2844N 07835W 6963 03045 9908 +106 +074 035055 056 049 000 00
025900 2843N 07833W 6967 03041 9909 +105 +074 035055 055 049 000 03
025930 2842N 07831W 6966 03037 9907 +102 +078 037055 056 051 000 03
030000 2841N 07830W 6970 03027 9903 +101 +085 031055 058 050 002 00
$$
;

[SunnyThoughts]

much improved IR presentation

[Chacor]

NHC's storm surge probability modelling showing pretty bad signs for New York City, with a 40-50% chance of storm surge above 2 ft.

[Dave]

Helps to load the picture first...

[Dave]

Someone else want to take either the hdobs or graphics? Its actually easy once you get a pattern.

[Air Force Met]

If it is only a cat 2, that means it will probably landfall at NC as a Cat 1 and then hopefully just a tropical storm by the time it landfalls the 2nd time....

Sorry...but that is absolutely NOT going to happen.

This will be a Cat 3 at landfall along the coast of NC and will be a high end Cat 1 or low end Cat 2 as it makes its way up the entire eastern coast. The NHC track is about where we have had our track for some time and is what we are expecting.

Surge will be a big factor...especially given the size of this system...and the speed of movement....and the winds pushing water into the bays.

This will NOT be a tropical storm by its second landfall. The high-res Euro has the right idea on this. Baroclinic forces are going to start to play a role in this as it picks up speed and offset some of the weakening caused by lower SST's and land interaction. Irene's wind field will spread out even more and this will add insult to injury with the surge...and the downing of trees.

If you look at high res satellite now...you can see the inner core coming together. She is making her run at the low 930's and I would not be surprised to see the 920's before she begins to fill. I made that prediction earlier today and my commander's eyes shot upwards...and the pressure then was 950. We are now at 942 and falling...and the convection is just now getting going. Wait until this convective explosion works its magic.

Sorry I haven't posted much...but we've been pretty much swamped.

[Dave]

579
URNT15 KNHC 260310
AF304 2409A IRENE HDOB 12 20110826
030030 2840N 07828W 6964 03030 9900 +098 +093 033058 059 051 002 00
030100 2838N 07826W 6969 03017 9895 +097 //// 032057 058 052 002 01
030130 2837N 07825W 6968 03016 9887 +098 //// 033059 060 054 001 01
030200 2836N 07823W 6963 03015 9881 +097 //// 032056 056 054 000 05
030230 2835N 07821W 6978 02993 9877 +097 //// 030055 057 056 001 01
030300 2834N 07820W 6963 03002 9865 +100 //// 030056 056 056 001 05
030330 2833N 07818W 6969 02993 9860 +101 //// 034059 063 056 001 05
030400 2832N 07816W 6967 02988 9846 +106 +104 036063 064 057 002 00
030430 2831N 07815W 6967 02983 9836 +110 +107 038063 064 058 003 00
030500 2830N 07813W 6965 02979 9834 +105 //// 037062 063 059 003 01
030530 2829N 07812W 6967 02972 9819 +113 //// 034062 062 061 005 01
030600 2828N 07810W 6971 02960 9818 +104 //// 031062 064 062 015 01
030630 2827N 07808W 6966 02960 //// +080 //// 024063 066 065 027 01
030700 2826N 07807W 6965 02956 //// +076 //// 028068 075 065 029 01
030730 2825N 07805W 6961 02953 //// +083 //// 043060 065 064 018 01
030800 2824N 07804W 6973 02922 //// +101 //// 036050 052 063 007 01
030830 2823N 07802W 6967 02928 9757 +123 //// 031051 052 062 006 01
030900 2822N 07800W 6969 02918 9751 +122 //// 028049 050 062 004 01
030930 2821N 07759W 6967 02914 //// +117 //// 027050 053 061 003 01
031000 2819N 07757W 6974 02897 //// +119 //// 026054 055 060 004 01
$$
;

[Duddy]

If it is only a cat 2, that means it will probably landfall at NC as a Cat 1 and then hopefully just a tropical storm by the time it landfalls the 2nd time....

Sorry...but that is absolutely NOT going to happen.

This will be a Cat 3 at landfall along the coast of NC and will be a high end Cat 1 or low end Cat 2 as it makes its way up the entire eastern coast. The NHC track is about where we have had our track for some time and is what we are expecting.

Surge will be a big factor...especially given the size of this system...and the speed of movement....and the winds pushing water into the bays.

This will NOT be a tropical storm by its second landfall. The high-res Euro has the right idea on this. Baroclinic forces are going to start to play a role in this as it picks up speed and offset some of the weakening caused by lower SST's and land interaction. Irene's wind field will spread out even more and this will add insult to injury with the surge...and the downing of trees.

If you look at high res satellite now...you can see the inner core coming together. She is making her run at the low 930's and I would not be surprised to see the 920's before she begins to fill. I made that prediction earlier today and my commander's eyes shot upwards...and the pressure then was 950. We are now at 942 and falling...and the convection is just now getting going. Wait until this convective explosion works its magic.

Sorry I haven't posted much...but we've been pretty much swamped.

Air Force Met, I'm in Wilmington, NC. I decided not to evacuate. Bad decision or am I OK?

[Ivanhater]

This is like watching a bad horror movie

[SunnyThoughts]

Thanks so much AFM for taking the time to give us your thoughts on Irene. I feel so bad for everyone up north, I just hope everyone takes it seriously.

[tallywx]

Surprised how no one has mentioned that Irene's more-or-less due north motion since 5 p.m. has caused it to miss its forecast track to the east, and yet the NHC 11 p.m. track still imparts a slight west-of-north component to the track early on that Irene is currently just not exhibiting. And yes, this is averaging out all the wobbles. Basically no gain in longitude over the past 3-4 hours.

[Raebie]

My kids are leaving Wilmington tomorrow and they really resisted leaving.

[Ptarmigan]

I think the large size, rather than the absolute peak intensity is what really matters here. with a pressure under 950mb you either have extremely high winds (ala charley) or a huge windfield. we have the latter. either one is extremely dangerous. if charley was a weed wacker then Irene is a brush hog. this is gonna hurt bad and is destined to impact an astonishing number of people, many of whom aren't hurricane savvy. any way you look at it's not a good situation.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

A large Category 1/2 hurricane is more dangerous. Case in point, Ike. I rather be under a small Category 4/5 hurricane than a large "weak" hurricane.

[Cranica]

111kt is the highest value we've seen from recon in quite a while, looks like winds are beginning to respond to the rapid pressure drop. Tonight's dmax is going to be quite a ride, methinks - Irene's finally set up a decent eyewall and she's got 12 hours of very favorable conditions to bomb out.

[Meteorcane]

My kids are leaving Wilmington tomorrow and they really resisted leaving.

I felt the same way as a kid, I remember during Georges not wanting to evacuate just so I could see a hurricane, we did evacuate nothing came of it (I lived southeast of New Orleans), thankfully when Katrina hit I was a good amount older and realized the danger.

[Dave]

[Meteorcane]

I think the large size, rather than the absolute peak intensity is what really matters here. with a pressure under 950mb you either have extremely high winds (ala charley) or a huge windfield. we have the latter. either one is extremely dangerous. if charley was a weed wacker then Irene is a brush hog. this is gonna hurt bad and is destined to impact an astonishing number of people, many of whom aren't hurricane savvy. any way you look at it's not a good situation.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

A large Category 1/2 hurricane is more dangerous. Case in point, Ike. I rather be under a small Category 4/5 hurricane than a large "weak" hurricane.

Well if I was about 10 miles inland I would prefer Ike over Charley or Andrew.