ATL: IRENE - Remnants - Discussion

[Jevo]

0z GFS is on deck and running

[ozonepete]

If it is only a cat 2, that means it will probably landfall at NC as a Cat 1 and then hopefully just a tropical storm by the time it landfalls the 2nd time....

Sorry...but that is absolutely NOT going to happen.

This will be a Cat 3 at landfall along the coast of NC and will be a high end Cat 1 or low end Cat 2 as it makes its way up the entire eastern coast. The NHC track is about where we have had our track for some time and is what we are expecting.

Surge will be a big factor...especially given the size of this system...and the speed of movement....and the winds pushing water into the bays.

This will NOT be a tropical storm by its second landfall. The high-res Euro has the right idea on this. Baroclinic forces are going to start to play a role in this as it picks up speed and offset some of the weakening caused by lower SST's and land interaction. Irene's wind field will spread out even more and this will add insult to injury with the surge...and the downing of trees.

If you look at high res satellite now...you can see the inner core coming together. She is making her run at the low 930's and I would not be surprised to see the 920's before she begins to fill. I made that prediction earlier today and my commander's eyes shot upwards...and the pressure then was 950. We are now at 942 and falling...and the convection is just now getting going. Wait until this convective explosion works its magic.

Sorry I haven't posted much...but we've been pretty much swamped.

Good to see you around. You are explaining this really well. I think it will keep that pressure for a long way up the east coast, and the surge will be tremendous. It won't be any local concentration of strong winds, but the very large area of damaging winds, that will be so devastating, and memorable with this storm.

[HurrMark]

Surge will be a big factor...especially given the size of this system...and the speed of movement....and the winds pushing water into the bays.

Interpolating the forecast track, Irene would be in New York around 2 PM, which is low tide...which would supposedly be good news. However, given the size and its relatively slow speed, the strongest winds would probably arrive well ahead of this time. Do you think the time of arrival would would be as important as it is in other storms which were smaller or faster (like the 1938 Long Island Express)?

[Janie2006]

Sage analysis from AFM, as always.

Anyone refusing to leave an area that's bound to be strongly affected by storm surge is effectively taking their lives into their own hands. At the height of the storm emergency personnel *will not* ride to the rescue. They literally won't be able to do it, and they'll need every once of energy to deal with the aftermath. Pay attention to evacuation orders, and do not underestimate this hurricane.

[Air Force Met]

Air Force Met, I'm in Wilmington, NC. I decided not to evacuate. Bad decision or am I OK?

I do not know where you live...but if inland...you will be OK. However...if told to evacuate...do so.

[Annie Oakley]

If you listen to anyone on these boards...you best listen to AIR FORCE MET.. He absolutely knows his stuff. Take heed and take cover.

[Raebie]

Well the problem as I see it is that some municipalities are being downright stupid about their evac plans.

[Dave]

454
URNT15 KNHC 260320
AF304 2409A IRENE HDOB 13 20110826
031030 2818N 07755W 6971 02897 9725 +125 //// 027058 059 059 002 01
031100 2817N 07754W 6965 02895 9714 +128 //// 028056 057 058 001 01
031130 2816N 07752W 6963 02889 9710 +122 //// 022055 056 056 003 01
031200 2815N 07750W 6963 02879 //// +104 //// 021053 055 056 009 01
031230 2814N 07749W 6968 02867 9686 +115 //// 019057 059 054 003 01
031300 2813N 07747W 6970 02856 9671 +133 //// 017056 057 054 000 05
031330 2812N 07745W 6964 02850 9652 +138 +135 018060 061 052 000 03
031400 2811N 07743W 6969 02833 9632 +144 +136 017062 063 053 000 03
031430 2809N 07742W 6968 02819 9615 +145 +137 011065 066 053 000 03
031500 2808N 07740W 6965 02803 9601 +141 +138 008068 071 055 001 03
031530 2807N 07738W 6968 02783 9578 +144 +139 006074 076 058 001 03
031600 2806N 07736W 6973 02755 9547 +152 +140 004076 078 062 001 03
031630 2805N 07734W 6954 02753 9511 +162 +141 001082 083 065 000 03
031700 2804N 07732W 6973 02709 9499 +148 +142 358078 081 066 001 03
031730 2803N 07730W 6963 02690 9465 +151 +143 353071 079 066 003 00
031800 2802N 07728W 6970 02655 9424 +167 +143 349055 059 059 003 03
031830 2802N 07726W 6974 02632 9392 +180 +143 346036 042 045 001 00
031900 2803N 07724W 6964 02635 9382 +180 +146 344020 026 030 000 03
031930 2804N 07722W 6964 02632 9381 +175 +149 360006 010 022 001 03
032000 2804N 07720W 6967 02626 9397 +157 +152 061002 003 021 000 00
$$
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[Air Force Met]

Surge will be a big factor...especially given the size of this system...and the speed of movement....and the winds pushing water into the bays.

Interpolating the forecast track, Irene would be in New York around 2 PM, which is low tide...which would supposedly be good news. However, given the size and its relatively slow speed, the strongest winds would probably arrive well ahead of this time. Do you think the time of arrival would would be as important as it is in other storms which were smaller or faster (like the 1938 Long Island Express)?

As Jeff said earlier...there could be some piling up with the water...so you may not get the up and down of the tide.

[WilmingtonSandbar]

My kids are leaving Wilmington tomorrow and they really resisted leaving.

I know the pull of those Hurricane parties at UNCW. I think you made the right choice in making them leave.

[shawn67]

Thank you AFM. I am sure what you said was hard for some to hear but it needed to be said. Hopefully they will heed your advice.

[dolebot_Broward_NW]

After watching Ft. Lauderdale & Miami live beach cams all day, I noticed the wave and wind impact distance from Irene was not that bad. Ga. & SC coasts are further to the west than those two Florida points. Should the impacts expected be the same as she passes or should there be any real concern since we are west and not north or east of Irene?
In all the hurricanes I have been through or followed, Irene just seems too different.

______
Just my opinion,,, For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

Ok Have to step in here
BAhamas block all swell that has ANY southern component for south florida....except a 15 mile wide area near south palm beaxh county that lines up with the "new providence channel" in bahamas
If you would have looked at cams from fort pierce north u would see a huge increase..make no mistake...hurricane s of this size have swell that propogate over 700 miles from the center. Also s fl. Surfers are drooling in palm beach for irene to clear 28N and the ne swells to fill in

Irene is a swell machine

Precisely why fort lauderdale has never been a surfing mecca and we are known for traditionally nice beaches (yay Bahamas!)

[Raebie]

Thanks. These are the same children that deserted us after 3 hours of a 5 day ice storm power outage. They'd never survive the aftermath.

[WeatherLovingDoc]

Given the very large size and large swell (wave run-up) prior, the high tides prior to Sunday evening may get trapped on the coast allowing several tide cycles to gradually built the water level. This happens with big hurricanes in the Gulf, but then the Gulf is more of a closed system than the W ATL. A lot of water is going to be trapped in the concave shape of the coast near NYC and western Long Island/northern New Jersey.

http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/Landsea/12Tides.pdf

Nice explanations of storm surge, storm tide and SLOSH offered in above pdf by fellow poster Hybridstorm.

STORM SURGE MODEL
" The storm surge model used is SLOSH which is an acronym for Sea, Lake and Overland Surges
from Hurricanes, Jelesnianski, et al (1992). SLOSH is a numerical model and was developed by
the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA) National Weather
Service (NWS) for operational forecasting. The model has also proven invaluable in
determining the hurricane storm surge flood plain along the U.S. Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico
coastlines prior to a hurricane landfall. This has led to comprehensive hurricane evacuation
plans for both of these areas."

[SunnyThoughts]

If you listen to anyone on these boards...you best listen to AIR FORCE MET.. He absolutely knows his stuff. Take heed and take cover.

No doubt about that for sure, when he speaks, he means business.

[bexar]

I just wanna ask if Irene is currently strengthening or weakening? Looks like there is some dry air penetrating the storm?

[Dave]

[psyclone]

If it is only a cat 2, that means it will probably landfall at NC as a Cat 1 and then hopefully just a tropical storm by the time it landfalls the 2nd time....

Sorry...but that is absolutely NOT going to happen.

This will be a Cat 3 at landfall along the coast of NC and will be a high end Cat 1 or low end Cat 2 as it makes its way up the entire eastern coast. The NHC track is about where we have had our track for some time and is what we are expecting.

Surge will be a big factor...especially given the size of this system...and the speed of movement....and the winds pushing water into the bays.

This will NOT be a tropical storm by its second landfall. The high-res Euro has the right idea on this. Baroclinic forces are going to start to play a role in this as it picks up speed and offset some of the weakening caused by lower SST's and land interaction. Irene's wind field will spread out even more and this will add insult to injury with the surge...and the downing of trees.

If you look at high res satellite now...you can see the inner core coming together. She is making her run at the low 930's and I would not be surprised to see the 920's before she begins to fill. I made that prediction earlier today and my commander's eyes shot upwards...and the pressure then was 950. We are now at 942 and falling...and the convection is just now getting going. Wait until this convective explosion works its magic.

Sorry I haven't posted much...but we've been pretty much swamped.

Air Force Met, I'm in Wilmington, NC. I decided not to evacuate. Bad decision or am I OK?

elevation is key. this is not one to roll the dice with so I'd take the advice of your local EOC.

[maxintensity]

I just wanna ask if Irene is currently strengthening or weakening? Looks like there is some dry air penetrating the storm?

Strengthening. This is a legit cat 3

[Dave]

237
URNT15 KNHC 260330
AF304 2409A IRENE HDOB 14 20110826
032030 2805N 07718W 6967 02624 9397 +155 +154 152005 007 021 000 03
032100 2804N 07716W 6958 02634 9389 +161 +154 186009 012 020 000 03
032130 2803N 07715W 6968 02620 9383 +167 +155 212017 020 020 000 03
032200 2802N 07713W 6966 02621 9381 +168 +155 220022 023 020 000 03
032230 2801N 07712W 6965 02624 9381 +168 +156 224028 030 025 000 00
032300 2759N 07710W 6969 02620 9378 +173 +156 228035 039 039 001 00
032330 2758N 07709W 6968 02629 9394 +163 +157 225048 054 050 001 00
032400 2757N 07708W 6963 02646 9421 +149 //// 223068 072 065 003 01
032430 2756N 07706W 6978 02646 9448 +141 //// 223081 089 081 006 05
032500 2754N 07705W 6958 02693 9473 +140 //// 224101 104 085 009 01
032530 2753N 07704W 6977 02694 9505 +130 //// 224106 107 084 008 01
032600 2752N 07703W 6968 02728 //// +115 //// 225102 103 083 014 05
032630 2751N 07702W 6964 02758 //// +104 //// 226097 099 079 040 05
032700 2750N 07700W 6970 02771 //// +100 //// 224096 098 069 033 01
032730 2749N 07659W 6971 02786 9642 +096 //// 224097 098 071 026 01
032800 2748N 07658W 6971 02804 9659 +096 //// 222100 101 072 018 01
032830 2746N 07657W 6967 02818 9673 +096 //// 222098 099 073 018 01
032900 2745N 07656W 6971 02828 //// +096 //// 225097 098 073 011 01
032930 2744N 07654W 6963 02854 //// +095 //// 224098 099 069 016 01
033000 2743N 07653W 6976 02846 //// +090 //// 223101 102 074 010 01
$$
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