WPAC: NANMADOL - Tropical Storm (14W/Mina)

[Chacor]

130 kt as expected. Will wait to read the discussion but I very much expect they will base their initial intensity on the range of Dvorak fixes.

[euro6208]

western pacific at it again with some super storms
showing Irene how its done!

haha that made me laugh yup our storms at it again lol

[oaba09]

WDPN31 PGTW 260300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR SUPER TYPHOON 14W (NANMADOL) WARNING
NR 14//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 12 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
A. SUPER TYPHOON (STY) 14W (NANMADOL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 620
NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT
02 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES THE SYSTEM HAS RAPIDLY INTENSIFIED OVER THE PAST
24 HOURS AND SHOWS A 10 NM EYE WITH SYMMETRIC DEEP CONVECTION. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON PGTW, KNES, AND RJTD DVORAK ESTIMATES
RANGING FROM 130 TO 140 KNOTS. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS
A POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL INTO A TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH
CELL TO THE NORTH AND EXCELLENT DIFFLUENCE ALONG THE REMAINING
PERIPHERIES. TY 14W HAS SLOWED AND REMAINS QUASI-STATIONARY WHILE
TRACKING BETWEEN COMPETING SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGES TO THE NORTH
AND SOUTH. A 25/12Z UPPER LEVEL SOUNDING INDICATES DEEP (ALTHOUGH
WEAK) EASTERLY FLOW.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THIS FORECAST PHILOSOPHY TRACKS STY 14W FARTHER WEST THAN
PREVIOUSLY FORECAST BECAUSE THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH
STAYED STRONGER THAN EXPECTED AND DIRECT CYCLONE INTERACTION IS NO
LONGER LIKELY BECAUSE OF THE LARGE SEPARATION BETWEEN STY 14W AND
TS 15W. ADDITIONALLY, THE SYSTEM HAS RAPIDLY INTENSIFIED MORE THAN
PREVIOUSLY FORECAST.
B. TY 14W IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN TRACKING POLEWARD WITHIN THE NEXT
24 HOURS AS A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH WEAKENS THE STR TO THE NORTH. STY
14W SHOULD CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS AND THEN
BEGIN TO WEAKEN SLIGHTLY AS IT SKIRTS THE COAST OF LUZON. THE SYSTEM
WILL THEN RE-INTENSIFY WITH IMPROVED OUTFLOW INTO THE APPROACHING
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH AS IT ROUNDS THE RIDGE AXIS. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS
COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE INITIAL 48 HOUR TRACK EXCEPT FOR
UKMO, WHICH TRACKS THE SYSTEM WESTWARD ACROSS LUZON. MODEL GUIDANCE
HAS BEEN UNREPRESENTATIVE OF THE PERSISTENT MOTION WESTWARD.
THEREFORE, THIS FORECAST IS TO THE LEFT OF MODEL CONSENSUS.
C. AFTER TAU 72, STY 14W WILL CONTINUE TO ROUND THE RIDGE AXIS AND
BEGIN STEERING UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE STRENGTHENING STR TO THE
SOUTH. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN HIGH THROUGHOUT THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST. MODEL GUIDANCE AFTER TAU 72 SPREADS IN
THE TIMING OF THE TURN TO THE NORTHEAST.//
NNNN

[bexar]

such a powerful system, just like 2004's Nanmadol.

[euro6208]

Super Typhoon Nanmadol - 130 knots category 4 1 minute winds bearing down on the Philippines and still forecast to strengthen...



TXPQ25 KNES 260305
TCSWNP

A. 14W (NANMADOL)

B. 26/0232Z

C. 17.0N

D. 123.7E

E. ONE/MTSAT

F. T7.0/7.0/D2.5/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS... WMG EYE EMBEDDED IN W AND SURROUNDED BY W FOR A DT=7.0.
MET=6.0 WITH PT=6.5. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...SALEMI


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
T7.1/ 910.5mb/143.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
7.0 7.0 7.0

supports at least 140 knots category 5

[supercane]

Interagency comparison of max sustained winds (all 10-min wind average period except JTWC, all at 00Z except for PAGASA):
JTWC: 130kt (Supertyphoon by JTWC definition)
JMA: 95kt
CMA: 52m/s (101kt) (Supertyphoon by CMA definition)
HKO: 100kt (Supertyphoon by HKO definition)
KMA: 50m/s (97kt)
CWB: 48m/s (93kt)
PAGASA: 41m/s (80kt)

Latest SAB Dvorak estimate agrees with prior JTWC estimate of 7.0/140kt:
TXPQ25 KNES 260305
TCSWNP
A. 14W (NANMADOL)
B. 26/0232Z
C. 17.0N
D. 123.7E
E. ONE/MTSAT
F. T7.0/7.0/D2.5/24HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS
H. REMARKS... WMG EYE EMBEDDED IN W AND SURROUNDED BY W FOR A DT=7.0.
MET=6.0 WITH PT=6.5. FT IS BASED ON DT.
I. ADDL POSITIONS
NIL
...SALEMI

[Chacor]

Based on what was said in the prognostic reasoning then, reasonable to guess that it's RJTD with the T6.5 (130 kt on the U.S. scale) satfix. If that's accurate then we should see JMA go to 100 kt very soon.

[oaba09]

latest from pagasa(up to 175 kph)



Typhoon "MINA" has intensified further and seriously threatens Northern Luzon Area.
Location of Center:
(as of 10:00 a.m.) 150 km East Northeast of Casiguran, Aurora

Coordinates: 16.9°N, 123.7°E
Strength: Maximum sustained winds of 175 kph near the center and Gustiness of up to 210 kph

Movement: Forecast to move Northwest at 9 kph

Forecast Positions/Outlook: Saturday morning:
is expected to pass along the Northern tip of Cagayan or
will be at 120 km Northeast of Tuguegarao City
Sunday morning:
30 km East Southeast of Basco, Batanes
Monday morning:
210 km North Northeast of Basco, Batanes

[euro6208]

latest recon data for irene has her central pressure around 940 mb. if one flew into nanmadol, i bet they would find a sty with a cp of 890, if we had recon, world records would change every year not just a local record for the wpac!!!

edit by mf_dolphin

[Typhoon Hunter]

latest recon data for irene has her central pressure around 940 mb. if one flew into nanmadol, i bet they would find a sty with a cp of 890... , if we had recon, world records would change every year not just a local record for the wpac!!!

Well the local record for the Wpac is the standing world record!

We were very lucky that recon flew threw Megi at its peak otherwise JMA would never have got to 125kts (10 mins.) JMA don't seem to ever want to break Dvorak constraints hence I find them often behind the curve with these systems. Muifa perfect example with peak of 95kts!

Pagasa playing safe I see with their forecast track, I don't blame them to be honest. Seems to be nudging NNW now per MTSAT imagery via CWB website.

[phwxenthusiast]

wow i can't believe JMA kept it at 95kts at their 03 UTC advisory... i know it's not synoptic hour but i was hoping at least a 5-knot increase...

btw PAGASA also up to 95kts on their 03z advisory...

[Chacor]

JMA rarely intensifies storms at the non-synoptic hour bulletins, from my experience (although it does happen).

With a T6.5 hopefully we will see 100 or 105 kt from JMA at 06z, because they're lagging far behind.

[euro6208]

JMA rarely intensifies storms at the non-synoptic hour bulletins, from my experience (although it does happen).

With a T6.5 hopefully we will see 100 or 105 kt from JMA at 06z, because they're lagging far behind.

don't they always lag behind when a super typhoon develops? yup

[Chacor]

As said, they lag behind because they steadfastly refuse to break Dvorak constraints 99% of the time. They will stick to D1.0/24HRS. It's fairly ridiculous with systems like these.

[phwxenthusiast]

JMA rarely intensifies storms at the non-synoptic hour bulletins, from my experience (although it does happen).

With a T6.5 hopefully we will see 100 or 105 kt from JMA at 06z, because they're lagging far behind.

yup, seen it a few times too... but you're right, they are indeed lagging behind even if we take the 10-min avg. into account...
if they don't increase this by 06z then there really is something wrong, lol

[euro6208]

it looks as though nanmadol's circulation got rounder and rounder...what a beast!!!


due to nanmadol's very small, very compact shape and clear well defined eye, i would place the intensity of this Super Typhoon at 150 knots 1 minute sustained winds !




*edited by southerngale - You need to add the disclaimer if you're going to make posts like this.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[dexterlabio]

Here in Quezon City, there were on-and-off moderate rains and an hour ago, it stopped...but I just noticed the unusually breezy weather, not too strong but I guess this is the partial effect of Nanmadol's outer bands...

If JTWC and JMA forecast tracks verify, the proximity of the eye from land would be enough to raise Storm Signal #4 in the northeastern tip of Luzon (maybe Batanes, Babuyan and Calayan Group of Islands and maybe Northeastern Cagayan)... For those who don't know, Signal#4 is the highest storm warning signal in the Philippines, expecting winds of more than 185km/h(10-min average)... Having said that, I think PAGASA should raise the intensity to 185km/h at least...

Interesting fact about this is that 2004 Nanmadol was also Cat4 supertyphoon, though 3x larger, that peaked at 2011 Nanmadol's current intensity (per JTWC).

[StormingB81]

Looks like even with a more west track Okinawa still has a target on it!

[StormingB81]

looking at the latest movement it looks like it will miss PI for the main part..I am sure the ywill feel some conditions but looks liek the eye will miss them hopefully

[Typhoon Hunter]

looking at the latest movement it looks like it will miss PI for the main part..I am sure the ywill feel some conditions but looks liek the eye will miss them hopefully

Yes if that NNW track continues it should miss NE tip of Luzon which would be great for them. I'm getting sense of deja vu with Songda here, but given it's late August this sucker shouldn't weaken much once it nears seas east of Taiwan!

JMA out in about 25 mins, let's see if they go to 100kts!