ATL: IRENE - Remnants - Discussion

[HeeBGBz]

That's right into NYC.

[maxintensity]

I thought after the ERC finished up, we would have a much larger eye. Considering the eye is still small as in the IR, might she start yet another ERC in the near future and perhaps that might weaken her a bit yet again?

The eye is not small, you just cant see it all. It's 30 miles. Thats big and plenty of room to contract.

[Jevo]

0z GFS +72



WoW.. SLightly left.. maybe by 30 miles from 18z.. This scenario has an eyewall event in Manhattan and close to Boston.. going to make for an interested 3 days... Thank god they evacuated the OBX today as well..

[Wx_Warrior]

From JB:

Irene tightening up. 942 pressure is 3.9 plus wind at 115 is 3 making this a 6.9 out of 10 on my scale. Should peak 8-8.5. (Katrina and Rita 8-8.5 on my scale)

[Dave]

[Chacor]

EYE DIAMETER 25 NM at the last forecast advisory, or 28 statute miles.

[Texashawk]

From JB:

Irene tightening up. 942 pressure is 3.9 plus wind at 115 is 3 making this a 6.9 out of 10 on my scale. Should peak 8-8.5. (Katrina and Rita 8-8.5 on my scale)

Interesting. I keep hearing about the Bastardi Scale. What does it translate to in real-world terms; i.e. what does a 8 mean to a community vs. a 5?

[Dave]

824
URNT15 KNHC 260410
AF304 2409A IRENE HDOB 18 20110826
040030 2706N 07552W 6969 03076 9968 +090 //// 200078 079 052 002 01
040100 2708N 07552W 6966 03076 9963 +092 //// 199079 080 052 000 05
040130 2710N 07552W 6966 03073 9963 +087 //// 197080 080 052 003 01
040200 2713N 07552W 6966 03070 9957 +091 +084 195080 081 052 003 00
040230 2715N 07553W 6970 03063 9961 +086 //// 194082 082 053 004 01
040300 2718N 07553W 6965 03065 //// +067 //// 192084 085 054 004 01
040330 2720N 07553W 6969 03059 9963 +073 //// 191085 086 055 005 01
040400 2723N 07553W 6967 03061 9964 +066 //// 191085 085 056 004 01
040430 2725N 07553W 6967 03058 //// +067 //// 190085 085 058 003 01
040500 2728N 07553W 6966 03058 9953 +080 //// 192086 087 057 002 01
040530 2730N 07553W 6967 03052 9943 +080 //// 195086 087 058 003 01
040600 2733N 07553W 6969 03047 9931 +094 //// 201089 090 059 001 01
040630 2735N 07553W 6966 03048 //// +080 //// 198092 092 057 003 01
040700 2738N 07553W 6970 03042 //// +067 //// 197095 095 059 011 01
040730 2740N 07553W 6962 03048 //// +072 //// 193097 099 060 011 01
040800 2743N 07553W 6972 03034 //// +067 //// 190089 091 060 014 01
040830 2745N 07553W 6965 03040 //// +066 //// 187090 092 062 006 01
040900 2748N 07553W 6964 03040 //// +087 //// 194088 088 062 007 01
040930 2750N 07553W 6967 03036 //// +084 //// 190091 094 062 010 01
041000 2753N 07553W 6961 03041 //// +075 //// 190095 098 063 010 01
$$
;

[Jevo]

From JB:

Irene tightening up. 942 pressure is 3.9 plus wind at 115 is 3 making this a 6.9 out of 10 on my scale. Should peak 8-8.5. (Katrina and Rita 8-8.5 on my scale)

Interesting. I keep hearing about the Bastardi Scale. What does it translate to in real-world terms; i.e. what does a 8 mean to a community vs. a 5?

Heh my real answer would be heavily moderated and get me in trouble with mf_dolphin.. the simple answer is it doesn't.. except to boost his big ole ego a little more..

On another note... the 0z GFS is in and OBX > NYC > Boston its squarely in her sights

[sponger]

I agree the islands off S FL are a potent swell blocker. I remember checking Pompano Beach the morning Andrew hit and it was flat. Make no mistake, the swell generated by Irene is likely to be 12 foot plus at the shore. Even minor storm surge will be magnified greatly at high tide. Hurricane Dennis was 12 foot at Jacksonville Beach FL and that storm was not nearly as big.

[Janie2006]

Yep. The 0Z run doesn't offer much of a change for the NY-Boston corridor, so there's really not much reason to change the forecast reasoning at the moment.

[Dave]

[Dave]

216
URNT15 KNHC 260420
AF304 2409A IRENE HDOB 19 20110826
041030 2755N 07553W 6970 03028 //// +071 //// 189093 094 064 011 01
041100 2758N 07553W 6968 03029 //// +065 //// 187093 094 065 012 01
041130 2801N 07553W 6969 03027 //// +065 //// 185093 094 063 013 01
041200 2803N 07553W 6963 03034 //// +066 //// 184098 099 062 014 01
041230 2806N 07553W 6967 03029 //// +069 //// 183097 098 061 012 01
041300 2808N 07553W 6967 03028 //// +068 //// 184092 093 063 012 01
041330 2811N 07553W 6965 03029 //// +070 //// 184091 092 064 012 01
041400 2813N 07553W 6967 03025 //// +068 //// 179093 095 064 012 01
041430 2816N 07553W 6967 03025 //// +073 //// 176101 104 063 011 01
041500 2819N 07553W 6969 03027 //// +073 //// 177103 103 063 011 01
041530 2821N 07553W 6969 03027 //// +076 //// 178104 106 063 012 01
041600 2824N 07553W 6969 03026 //// +079 //// 176102 103 062 011 01
041630 2827N 07553W 6967 03029 //// +079 //// 175098 098 061 011 01
041700 2829N 07553W 6966 03030 //// +078 //// 173101 103 059 011 01
041730 2832N 07553W 6972 03022 //// +072 //// 171099 101 059 013 01
041800 2834N 07553W 6963 03030 //// +070 //// 170101 102 060 013 01
041830 2837N 07553W 6975 03016 //// +069 //// 168102 104 060 016 01
041900 2840N 07553W 6969 03023 //// +070 //// 168101 104 060 016 01
041930 2842N 07553W 6961 03034 //// +068 //// 166104 108 060 013 01
042000 2845N 07553W 6968 03024 //// +071 //// 164104 108 060 011 01
$$
;

[BigB0882]

Has anyone thought about the fact that the U.S. Open begins on the 29th! I don't know what they will have to do if this is a direct (or close to it) hit on NYC.

[HurricaneWarning92]

Irene is gonna miss her next forecast point. shes veered off a bit to the right... (maybe she wont make landfall after all?

[fci]

From JB:

Irene tightening up. 942 pressure is 3.9 plus wind at 115 is 3 making this a 6.9 out of 10 on my scale. Should peak 8-8.5. (Katrina and Rita 8-8.5 on my scale)

Interesting. I keep hearing about the Bastardi Scale. What does it translate to in real-world terms; i.e. what does a 8 mean to a community vs. a 5?

Heh my real answer would be heavily moderated and get me in trouble with mf_dolphin.. the simple answer is it doesn't.. except to boost his big ole ego a little more..

Careful........ I like seeing your posts!!

[mf_dolphin]

From JB:

Irene tightening up. 942 pressure is 3.9 plus wind at 115 is 3 making this a 6.9 out of 10 on my scale. Should peak 8-8.5. (Katrina and Rita 8-8.5 on my scale)

Interesting. I keep hearing about the Bastardi Scale. What does it translate to in real-world terms; i.e. what does a 8 mean to a community vs. a 5?

I'll try a nicer answer than Jevo's The problem with the Saffir-Simpson sacle is that it doesn't fit a lot of storms. A Cat 2 storm with very low pressure and a large wind field can cause storm surge way above what the chart lists. What some have proposed is a modified scale that takes these differences into account to give a truer picture of a particular storms power. JB has come up with his own as a combination of wind+pressure. I've never actually seen his scale in writing but he references at times.

[Deputy Van Halen]

Power outages is where the real potential for disaster lies in this one. YEs there will be a lot of widespread surge damage...and wind damage....but if salt-water gets into the underground power systems in New York...New Jersey and fires that system...plus with the trees...well...this could be a real mess for a while.

I say this because there is already a whiff of civil unrest in the air up there and people have been looting "just because." Give them some time without power and this could get ugly. If you live in that area...there is more than one reason to leave...in my opinion.

Let's not forget nightmarish traffic congestion, with all the people trying to evacuate. NYC especially will be an unimaginable mess. Are they set up to contraflow the roads out of town?

Sitting in your car in a traffic jam, unable to move, is not a good place to be when a tropical storm arrives.

[HurricaneWarning92]

Has anyone thought about the fact that the U.S. Open begins on the 29th! I don't know what they will have to do if this is a direct (or close to it) hit on NYC.

Yep, i thought of it.. big tennis fan right here... i hope they dont postpone it..

[JonathanBelles]

Working on getting up and running with images. First few will be a bit different from each other.