Global model runs discussion

[Ivanhater]

Comes in low to the Caribbean and gets into the Gulf



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[Ivanhater]

12z GFS looks active



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[jes]

Even though I've been on this board since its inception (my name changed so shows a later date) --- I still can't read the maps etc. What is the Caribbean Cruiser supposed to turn into -- TS, hurricane or rain storm?

[Flyinman]

Great, looks right on track for the Ike anniversary. The low that originates in the Gulf and move towards Florida seems kind of strange. However, it does seem like the models try to develop something every year and move it NE towards Florida. Nontheless, sure looks like an active next few weeks.

[JPmia]

It is interesting that there seems to be a rough pattern developing this year with storms going through the northern part of the islands and then up toward the southeast US/FL see Emily, Irene and the one on the 12z GFS.

[HurricaneWarning92]

It is interesting that there seems to be a rough pattern developing this year with storms going through the northern part of the islands and then up toward the southeast US/FL see Emily, Irene and the one on the 12z GFS.

Yeah i see this too. Maybe this is the pattern that was predicted before the season.

[bamajammer4eva]

At 276h, one cyclone headed for the Fl Panhandle, one in the Caribbean headed for the gulf and one headed for the open Atlantic.

[HURRICANELONNY]

I don't know about the models that far out. But it is a signal that the enviroment is changing. The SAL has decreased alot. If it will hold. I don't know. But it is a positive factor.

[USTropics]

00z run of the GFS continues to show 3 future systems in the Atlantic. One is a potential recurve while the other traverses through the Caribbean and in to the GOM. The third looks to be a home grown system originating in the BOC heading NE towards the Florida panhandle. Given it's far out in the future but getting some consistency run to run from the GFS. At the very least, the GFS is depicting favorable conditions over the next 2 weeks.

[South Texas Storms]

I'm getting very optimistic this time for real that the Texas death ridge is leaving for good next week!

[ROCK]

I'm getting very optimistic this time for real that the Texas death ridge is leaving for good next week!

I hope you are right.....forecast highs for my area 105F.....very interesting to see the GFS so active.....

[cycloneye]

00z ECMWF joins GFS on at least one of the systems.

[Blown Away]

After Irene, we may go weeks w/o any real threat to land, maybe Bermuda.

[perk]

After Irene, we may go weeks w/o any real threat to land, maybe Bermuda.

We can use a break after Irene.

[PauleinHouston]

I'm getting very optimistic this time for real that the Texas death ridge is leaving for good next week!

I hope you are right.....forecast highs for my area 105F.....very interesting to see the GFS so active.....

Progs and models indicating the death ridge should begin a slow and then rapid progression East/Northeast to MO/TN area by middle of next week (8/29-9/3). If that comes to pass, the door should be open for GOM/BOC activity and at least allow tropical moisure influx into Texas finally. A weak shortwave passed along the coast yesterday morning skirting the E/SE side of death ridge and gave me 2.36" of rain in League City...yippee. I think a homebrew is a definite possibility.

to the death ridge

[perk]

I hope that is the case,I did get a good downpour yesterday.

[gatorcane]

00z run of the GFS continues to show 3 future systems in the Atlantic. One is a potential recurve while the other traverses through the Caribbean and in to the GOM. The third looks to be a home grown system originating in the BOC heading NE towards the Florida panhandle. Given it's far out in the future but getting some consistency run to run from the GFS. At the very least, the GFS is depicting favorable conditions over the next 2 weeks.

Those troughs are starting to dig now if it can pull a system NE into the panhandle from the BOC....a sign that we are getting closer to fall.

[SouthFLTropics]

00z run of the GFS continues to show 3 future systems in the Atlantic. One is a potential recurve while the other traverses through the Caribbean and in to the GOM. The third looks to be a home grown system originating in the BOC heading NE towards the Florida panhandle. Given it's far out in the future but getting some consistency run to run from the GFS. At the very least, the GFS is depicting favorable conditions over the next 2 weeks.

Those troughs are starting to dig now if it can pull a system NE into the panhandle from the BOC....a sign that we are getting closer to fall.

I would agree Gator...In fact, I'm starting to think that if we are going to see a threat in South Florida at all it may come from the Western Caribbean in late September or October.

SFT

[CourierPR]

Bastardi thinks that the GOM will shut down for development after September 7. Of course, he also said Irene would be a Florida storm.

[cycloneye]

The 8/26/11 12z GFS starts to develop off Africa in 96 hours. There is also a low in the BOC.



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