new Forecasts

[Derek Ortt]

we still aren't buying the NW turn for fabian and are going with a strong cane threatening Hawaii

http://www.nwhhc.com/atlantic10fd.html
http://www.nwhhc.com/epac10fd.html

[Steve]

>>The models that do indicate recurvature are doing so from developing a Gulf of Mexico storm which does not appear likely.

Derek,

I'm assuming you're not referring to 94L which is fairly likely IMHO, but instead to another storm yet to come. I saw that on a couple of runs where recurvature in the Atlantic allowed a potential setup for more homestyle development (but in the Eastern Gulf) next week.

Steve

[Steve H.]

I think the GOM storm is quite possible and in fact, likely. Look at your forecast....you said at first that the models didn't pick up on the GOM storm and that is why the trough won't dig as far, but in your forecast you say the GOM development isn't likely? Am I reading this right. I'm not ready to say that it won't affect the CONUS, but chances are that it will recurve as we get into next week. Just the way things go in the Atlantic. But I think its too early to tell just yet. Cheers!!

[wxman57]

we still aren't buying the NW turn for fabian and are going with a strong cane threatening Hawaii

http://www.nwhhc.com/atlantic10fd.html
http://www.nwhhc.com/epac10fd.html

Your track (below) is almost exactly on mine now. I just curve it a bit more north after 96hrs. I note that you don't buy the NHC initial point (for 15Z) as the storm was already past their 15Z forecast position at 14Z. Finally, the NHC has been SAYING Fabian is moving at 17-19 mph for 24 hrs but their FORECAST TRACK has been moving it at 12 mph. I moved it to about 68.5 at 120hrs as well.

Initial: 15.5N 44.0W 50KT
12 Hour: 15.9N 47.0W 55KT
24 Hour: 16.4N 50.0W 60KT
36 Hour: 17.0N 53.1W 65KT
48 Hour: 17.7N 56.0W 70KT
72 Hour: 18.6N 61.0W 80KT
USE WITH EXTREME CAUTION AS FOLLOWING IS SUBJECT TO LARGE ERROR
96 Hour: 19.7N 65.0W 85KT
120 Hour: 20.7N 68.5W 90KT

Next Discussion: 2100 UTC

Forecaster: Cangialosi

[JCT777]

Thanks for update Derek. I too do not see a NW turn for Fabian - at least not any time soon.