High Res Gulf Images With Surface Obs Plotted

[wxman57]

I was able to break free and save a few snapshots. The first is from earlier this morning. Note the ESE-SE winds at Cancun and Cozumel. If you look closely, you can see a tiny eddy in the strato-cu moving off to the WNW-NW The same eddy is stil there a few hours later, but a bit weaker. I don't think it's significant development-wise. Note, also, that winds on the NE Yucatan Peninsula are still from the southeast. No signs of a LLC yet, and I don't think there will be for 18-24 hours.

http://home.houston.rr.com/wx/grace1.gif

http://home.houston.rr.com/wx/grace2.gif

[GalvestonDuck]

I see it's named "Grace" on the link already.

[wxman57]

I see it's named "Grace" on the link already.

Shhh! Don't tell anyone. I always save these images for future talks in the spring. It helps to keep the images organized if I call them what I think the eventual storm name will be.

I think it has a 60-70% chance of becoming Grace on Sunday. I don't buy the BAMM/BAMD projections of a Brownsville landfall at this time, as I don't see any blocking ridge to the north that would prevent it from tracking to the upper TX coast.

[rayNportarthur]

WHAT IS A EDDY? IT LOOKS LIKE A SMALL LLC

[alicia-w]

an eddy is something akin to a whirlpool, though when talking about air currents may mean it's a variance from the main stream........

[wxman57]

WHAT IS A EDDY? IT LOOKS LIKE A SMALL LLC

Just a tiny swirl in the lower-level clouds. We often see such eddies in the tropics. Nothing to get excited about.

[Lindaloo]

Well I believe there is high pressure sitting over MS that will prevent it from coming this way!! I never thought I would welcome high pressure as much as I do right now.

ticka, David, Kelly, Duck... you all can have it.

[KatDaddy]

Its obvious see this being a TX threat possibly the Hou-GAL areas. You also mentioned there is a very good chance of it becoming Grace. So whats your thoughts on intensity? Its just a matter of time until we get a rapidly developing system in the GOM

[Guest]

My thoughts on intensity - either a cat 1 or cat 2. Look how fast Claudette intenisfied.

JMO.

[wrkh99]

Cat 1 and TX/LA Landfall

[Anonymous]

Kat Daddy...you have already stated the Hurricane season is over for the Texas and GOM. Why worry?

Personally, I don't think much of this system as intensifying.

[Stormchaser16]

Conditions are near perfect in the gulf for this thing to boom. Im also thinking middle to upper Texas Coastline(possibly LA?)..... But A HUGE high pressure(Bermuda high) is actually extending into the gulf, but may weaken as a trough funnels in, this makes the track for a Texas landfall sound good. Stearing currents arent all that strong as well, so it would likely meander along possibly taking quite a while to make landfall, WILL NOT ZOOM across the gulf like the other tropical system passing over Florida did earlier on. So all eyes along the gulf from Texas to Florida should monitor it as anything could happen.

[Stormchaser16]

BIG EZ and why in the world would you say that? Have you looked at conditions in the gulf? Have you looked at a WV loop which shows very moist air for it to work with? Extremely warm SST's and not to mention how theres about NO shear in its path in the GOM?????????? Have you cared to look at that?

[KatDaddy]

My feeling is the Hou-Gal area will safe from a threat with this system. Furthermore I indicated that may not true from other systems during Sept. In addition, the Prelim HPC discussion is indicating a LA threat more than TX.

Now with that said Stormchaser16 has a good viewpoint. If I am correct this is Ryan who was known as CapeVerde years ago......a very intelligent person and who opionions I respect.

Common Sense is for anyone from Galveston to Pensacola to watch this system through the holiday weekend.

I too feel as does Stormchaser16 this system will explode

[Stormchaser16]

Conditions are ripe for the system to develop-Of course that doesnt always mean that it will, but this system has everything going for it, already good convection/outflow/ its got the obstacle of time on its side, and conditions are looking good.

You are correct KatDaddy my name is Ryan...... but I don't ever remember posting as CapeVerde. I used to post on TWC, then broke away and administrated my own forum for awhile, after that I hung around WWBB and now I am here at Storm2K.

[Stormchaser16]

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8sht.html

There is a good look at the Atlantic shear, NOTHING there except for an area in the SouthWest GOM.

http://www.ghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/post-goes

That is a pretty nice Water Vapor loop, you can see the GOM is very moist right now.

[JCT777]

Nice links, Ryan. I agree that this is one to watch for TX or LA - and it very well could intensify very quickly once it gets into the GOM.