ATL: IRENE - Remnants - Discussion

[Chris_in_Tampa]

Wide view:

[Okibeach]

I was wondering how "physical size" is actually measured. I know they can pretty acurately determine the wind radius, but is that regarded as its size? Are the rotating bands of clouds that are already into NC, but not producing wind or rain considered as part of it?[/quote]

That's pretty much it, and it's the size of those wind fields that determines the storm surge height, NOT the Saffir-Simpson category. Using the SLOSH model to create surge graphics, I'd have to bump the storm category up to a SS Cat 4 to illustrate the surge height from a very large Category 2 hurricane, as the SLOSH model does not take into consideration storm size very well. It assumes an average sized hurricane with a radius of max winds of only 25nm.[/quote]

Thanks for expanding that answer.

[Phoenix351]

That's right into NYC.

...and Boston

Don't forget that Connecticut is somewhere in there too. I live on the coast in Southeastern Connecticut and it looks like we will be on the stronger eastern part of the storm.

[littlevince]

000
URNT15 KWBC 261226
NOAA3 2609A IRENE HDOB 26 20110826
121630 3004N 07805W 7530 02220 9702 +162 //// 000061 063 065 006 01
121700 3004N 07807W 7525 02245 9726 +157 //// 003063 066 063 008 01
121730 3004N 07809W 7531 02249 9741 +155 //// 005068 070 061 006 01
121800 3004N 07812W 7530 02261 9752 +155 //// 008071 071 062 004 01
121830 3004N 07814W 7528 02273 9764 +153 //// 010073 073 062 003 01
121900 3004N 07816W 7529 02281 9776 +153 //// 010073 074 058 004 01
121930 3004N 07819W 7530 02288 9783 +155 +159 013070 073 059 003 00
122000 3004N 07821W 7526 02301 9790 +159 +148 014069 070 059 002 00
122030 3004N 07824W 7529 02305 9799 +158 +147 014069 070 057 001 00
122100 3004N 07826W 7528 02312 9801 +164 +144 012066 067 058 001 00
122130 3004N 07828W 7529 02316 9816 +155 +144 015069 069 056 001 00
122200 3004N 07831W 7528 02325 9827 +149 +150 016067 068 056 001 00
122230 3004N 07833W 7528 02332 9839 +145 //// 015069 070 056 001 01
122300 3004N 07836W 7532 02335 9847 +146 +140 014072 074 056 001 00
122330 3004N 07838W 7530 02342 9850 +150 +138 016067 069 055 000 00
122400 3004N 07841W 7528 02352 9858 +151 +128 014063 064 054 002 00
122430 3004N 07843W 7527 02358 9868 +147 +124 014066 066 053 000 00
122500 3004N 07846W 7532 02357 9872 +147 +128 016065 066 054 001 00
122530 3004N 07848W 7528 02367 9874 +153 +118 015064 065 054 000 00
122600 3004N 07851W 7530 02369 9881 +152 +116 015060 061 054 000 00

[CrazyC83]

Remember with Ike, even though it made landfall on Galveston, hurricane-force winds extended to Lake Charles (140 miles away) and significant surge past Lafayette (about 250 miles). Tropical storm conditions covered most of Louisiana and east Texas.

A similar situation will likely exist here.

[N2FSU]

Question for the forum: I have family who live near BWI in Baltimore, and they own a condo at Ocean City and have a motor home parked at Chincoteague Island. I realize there is nothing you can do about the condo, but they don't think this will be that serious and have decided to leave the motor home where it is. Anyone care to venture a guess on the potential storm surge/damage near Ocean City, MD?

[CrazyC83]

Question for the forum: I have family who live near BWI in Baltimore, and they own a condo at Ocean City and have a motor home parked at Chincoteague Island. I realize there is nothing you can do about the condo, but they don't think this will be that serious and have decided to leave the motor home where it is. Anyone care to venture a guess on the potential storm surge/damage near Ocean City, MD?

Ocean City: Storm surge threat moderate. Probably doesn't matter on track due to angle to the ocean. Beach erosion is a major threat though. Wind threat moderate to high depending on track - moderate (i.e. expect power loss and trees down) if tracks east, significant to high (structural damage possible) if it tracks west.

[littlevince]

000
URNT15 KWBC 261236
NOAA3 2609A IRENE HDOB 27 20110826
122630 3004N 07853W 7531 02374 9886 +153 +112 016060 060 054 002 00
122700 3004N 07856W 7530 02381 9891 +154 +122 013059 060 055 001 00
122730 3004N 07858W 7531 02383 9902 +147 +130 014052 053 055 002 00
122800 3004N 07900W 7530 02391 9910 +143 +136 012054 055 053 001 00
122830 3004N 07903W 7531 02394 9918 +140 +136 011056 057 053 001 00
122900 3003N 07905W 7530 02399 9919 +144 +134 010057 058 052 001 00
122930 3003N 07908W 7530 02403 9921 +144 +141 009055 055 051 002 00
123000 3003N 07910W 7532 02402 9928 +140 +140 013052 054 051 003 00
123030 3003N 07913W 7529 02410 9932 +142 +125 014049 050 050 003 00
123100 3003N 07915W 7529 02415 9941 +137 +142 008050 051 051 003 00
123130 3003N 07918W 7530 02415 9942 +138 //// 357054 055 /// /// 05
123200 3001N 07920W 7530 02417 9947 +134 //// 356055 057 /// /// 05
123230 2959N 07919W 7528 02420 9944 +139 +138 357052 055 050 000 03
123300 2957N 07918W 7531 02416 9945 +137 +139 355051 053 051 001 00
123330 2955N 07917W 7531 02415 9943 +137 +140 358056 057 052 002 00
123400 2953N 07915W 7531 02413 9940 +138 +139 357057 058 051 002 00
123430 2950N 07914W 7526 02416 9939 +137 +138 000056 056 053 000 00
123500 2948N 07913W 7527 02415 9936 +138 +137 357056 057 053 001 00
123530 2946N 07911W 7526 02412 9933 +138 +137 353056 057 056 001 00
123600 2944N 07910W 7525 02414 9933 +138 +136 350056 057 056 001 00

[littlevince]

000
URNT15 KNHC 261259
AF306 2709A IRENE HDOB 24 20110826
124930 3130N 07848W 6966 03079 9977 +086 +036 059065 066 /// /// 03
125000 3128N 07847W 6975 03067 9979 +084 +036 056061 061 052 007 03
125030 3127N 07846W 6967 03073 9970 +089 +036 056062 064 055 007 00
125100 3126N 07845W 6969 03067 9968 +086 +036 056061 062 055 006 00
125130 3125N 07843W 6968 03066 9962 +088 +036 055062 062 055 006 00
125200 3124N 07842W 6967 03062 9966 +082 +036 061063 063 054 005 00
125230 3123N 07841W 6965 03061 9966 +079 +036 062063 063 054 007 00
125300 3122N 07839W 6966 03057 9964 +076 +037 062061 062 056 008 00
125330 3121N 07838W 6969 03055 9962 +077 +037 058073 076 056 008 00
125400 3120N 07837W 6964 03053 9960 +075 +036 068066 068 057 004 00
125430 3119N 07835W 6967 03047 9939 +091 +035 070065 065 057 002 00
125500 3118N 07834W 6965 03045 9923 +100 +035 070066 066 059 000 00
125530 3117N 07833W 6965 03043 9914 +103 +035 070067 068 058 001 00
125600 3116N 07832W 6973 03028 9912 +103 +035 067069 069 060 002 00
125630 3115N 07831W 6962 03038 9907 +102 +036 069071 072 060 002 00
125700 3114N 07829W 6965 03030 9908 +096 +037 067071 072 060 003 00
125730 3113N 07828W 6969 03024 9907 +097 +039 067070 071 057 000 03
125800 3111N 07827W 6966 03022 9902 +096 +040 068071 072 058 000 00
125830 3110N 07826W 6971 03012 9893 +100 +040 067070 071 059 000 00
125900 3109N 07824W 6966 03015 9889 +099 +041 064070 070 058 001 03
$$
;

[lostsole]

I believe it is ramping up again, the west side of the storm is expanding this morning, last evening I said I thought it looked ragged and dry air was getting in and people jumped on me, so what does the crowd think of my latest observation? I think I see an eye opening up again. Cat 3 again in a few hours? Perhaps ramp to a 4 before landfall?

[xironman]

Question for the forum: I have family who live near BWI in Baltimore, and they own a condo at Ocean City and have a motor home parked at Chincoteague Island. I realize there is nothing you can do about the condo, but they don't think this will be that serious and have decided to leave the motor home where it is. Anyone care to venture a guess on the potential storm surge/damage near Ocean City, MD?

The point and click forecast from the NWS doesn't look that great for the island

Saturday Night: Hurricane conditions expected. Rain and possibly a thunderstorm. Some of the storms could produce heavy rainfall. Low around 70. North wind 65 to 85 mph increasing to between 70 and 90 mph. Winds could gust as high as 105 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New rainfall amounts in excess of 4 inches possible.

[littlevince]

[N2FSU]

Ocean City: Storm surge threat moderate. Probably doesn't matter on track due to angle to the ocean. Beach erosion is a major threat though. Wind threat moderate to high depending on track - moderate (i.e. expect power loss and trees down) if tracks east, significant to high (structural damage possible) if it tracks west.[/quote]


Thanks!

[littlevince]

000
URNT15 KWBC 261246
NOAA3 2609A IRENE HDOB 28 20110826
123630 2942N 07909W 7524 02415 9929 +143 +133 347052 055 056 000 00
123700 2940N 07907W 7523 02416 9932 +140 +136 343048 050 053 002 00
123730 2937N 07906W 7525 02414 9932 +139 //// 337046 048 055 002 01
123800 2935N 07905W 7527 02410 9928 +141 +144 342048 049 055 002 00
123830 2933N 07903W 7525 02412 9926 +143 +143 341048 049 053 003 00
123900 2931N 07902W 7525 02411 9928 +140 +140 340049 049 052 001 00
123930 2929N 07901W 7526 02410 9930 +138 +138 340048 049 053 001 00
124000 2927N 07859W 7527 02409 9927 +139 //// 338050 051 053 000 01
124030 2925N 07858W 7525 02409 9925 +139 //// 337050 051 052 001 01
124100 2922N 07857W 7527 02406 9925 +139 //// 336052 052 051 003 01
124130 2920N 07855W 7527 02406 9926 +139 //// 332050 052 052 003 01
124200 2918N 07853W 7525 02409 9924 +140 //// 326049 051 051 002 01
124230 2917N 07851W 7526 02408 9925 +140 //// 325049 051 052 003 01
124300 2915N 07850W 7526 02405 9921 +141 //// 321049 050 051 003 01
124330 2913N 07848W 7527 02404 9921 +141 //// 316049 050 049 003 01
124400 2911N 07847W 7526 02404 9919 +142 //// 316053 055 046 003 05
124430 2908N 07846W 7525 02409 9922 +141 //// 317050 052 /// /// 05
124500 2907N 07844W 7526 02405 9921 +141 //// 311048 049 /// /// 05
124530 2907N 07842W 7525 02404 9919 +141 //// 308049 049 047 001 05
124600 2908N 07840W 7526 02403 9917 +143 +142 308048 048 047 001 00

[littlevince]

000
URNT15 KNHC 261309
AF306 2709A IRENE HDOB 25 20110826
125930 3108N 07823W 6967 03008 9893 +093 +042 064073 075 058 002 00
130000 3107N 07822W 6968 03002 9885 +094 +042 065072 074 056 001 00
130030 3106N 07821W 6967 03000 9870 +102 +042 064066 067 057 000 00
130100 3105N 07819W 6976 02986 9866 +102 +042 062076 079 058 008 00
130130 3104N 07818W 6961 03005 9868 +099 +042 056072 075 060 003 00
130200 3103N 07817W 6970 02986 9862 +100 +043 056071 072 060 001 00
130230 3102N 07815W 6967 02988 9850 +108 +042 056070 071 058 001 00
130300 3101N 07814W 6966 02983 9843 +108 +043 059074 076 056 000 00
130330 3100N 07813W 6970 02973 9839 +108 +044 060074 075 057 001 00
130400 3059N 07812W 6966 02976 9836 +108 +045 058076 078 055 001 00
130430 3058N 07810W 6966 02971 9829 +110 +046 056074 075 055 001 00
130500 3056N 07809W 6970 02961 9824 +108 +047 055076 079 053 007 00
130530 3055N 07808W 6963 02963 9819 +107 +047 053073 074 053 006 00
130600 3054N 07806W 6967 02955 9820 +103 +048 054074 077 054 005 00
130630 3053N 07805W 6960 02955 9827 +087 +048 052073 074 056 008 00
130700 3052N 07804W 6966 02937 9791 +110 +048 045073 074 060 004 00
130730 3051N 07802W 6975 02923 9782 +112 +047 048074 076 061 001 00
130800 3050N 07801W 6960 02932 9762 +124 +047 046075 076 061 001 00
130830 3048N 07800W 6970 02913 9747 +131 +047 044074 074 061 001 00
130900 3047N 07758W 6970 02907 9748 +124 +047 043073 074 061 002 00
$$
;

[KWT]

Remember with Ike, even though it made landfall on Galveston, hurricane-force winds extended to Lake Charles (140 miles away) and significant surge past Lafayette (about 250 miles). Tropical storm conditions covered most of Louisiana and east Texas.

A similar situation will likely exist here.

Yeah, though the hurricane force winds should be as large given the track will put the most of the east coast on the western side which has a smaller area of hurricane winds typically, esp in a lower end hurricane which Irene probably will be.

Fact is though alot of the east coast will get tropical storm force winds at some point in the next few days.

[Raebie]

What's the outlook for Wilmington NC this morning? Kids are still debating evacuation. Our house is about 6 miles from the beach.

[littlevince]

[Recurve]

Here is the latest IKE scale that has been posted. This is the experimental Integrated Kinetic Energy scale and the wind/wave damage potential ratings produced from research at NOAA/AOML/HRD by Mark Powell and others.

The 0730z Wind and Surge/Wave Damage potentials: 2.9 for wind, 4.7 for surge/waves on a scale of 0-6.

This is the page where analysis are posted: http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/Storm_pages/irene2011/wind.html



Uploaded with ImageShack.us

This is the page for the current graphic: ftp://ftp.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/pub/hwind/2011/AL092011/0826/0730/AL092011_0826_0730_contour04.png

This is an article about the IKE scale and the patent it was recently granted: http://www.keysnet.com/2011/08/05/365464/scientists-awarded-patent-for.html

[wxman57]

Question for the forum: I have family who live near BWI in Baltimore, and they own a condo at Ocean City and have a motor home parked at Chincoteague Island. I realize there is nothing you can do about the condo, but they don't think this will be that serious and have decided to leave the motor home where it is. Anyone care to venture a guess on the potential storm surge/damage near Ocean City, MD?

Can't tell for sure about the motor home as I don't know where it's parked on the island. But I can tell you that SLOSH is indicating that most of the island will go underwater when Irene passes. There are some high spots that may be just above the storm surge, but they could be underwater, too, given the very large waves rolling into the coast. I'd figure that the mobile home will be lost if you leave it there. Most of the island may be destroyed.