ATL: IRENE - Remnants - Discussion

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
HURRICANE IRENE ADVISORY NUMBER 25
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092011
1100 AM EDT FRI AUG 26 2011

...OUTER RAIN BANDS OF LARGE HURRICANE IRENE NEARING THE COAST OF
THE CAROLINAS....


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.7N 77.3W
ABOUT 330 MI...530 KM SSW OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...946 MB...27.93 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS DISCONTINUED ALL WARNINGS.

THE HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN EXTENDED NORTHWARD IN THE
CHESAPEAKE BAY TO DRUM POINT.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* LITTLE RIVER INLET NORTH CAROLINA NORTHWARD TO SANDY HOOK NEW
JERSEY...INCLUDING THE PAMLICO...ALBEMARLE...AND CURRITUCK
SOUNDS...DELAWARE BAY...AND CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF DRUM POINT.

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF SANDY HOOK TO THE MOUTH OF THE MERRIMACK RIVER
MASSACHUSETTS...INCLUDING NEW YORK CITY...LONG ISLAND...LONG ISLAND
SOUND...BLOCK ISLAND...BOSTON...MARTHAS VINEYARD AND NANTUCKET.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF EDISTO BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA TO LITTLE RIVER INLET
* CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM DRUM POINT NORTHWARD AND THE TIDAL POTOMAC

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED
36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE
PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE EXTENDED NORTHWARD INTO NEW
ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN NORTHEASTERN UNITED
STATES AND SOUTHEASTERN CANADA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
IRENE.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY
YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IRENE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 30.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 77.3 WEST. IRENE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/H...AND THIS MOTION
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY. A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE
NORTH-NORTHEAST SHOULD BEGIN BY SATURDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...
THE CORE OF THE HURRICANE WILL PASS WELL OFF THE COAST OF GEORGIA
TODAY...APPROACH THE COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA TONIGHT...AND PASS
NEAR OR OVER THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST SATURDAY. THE HURRICANE
IS FORECAST TO MOVE NEAR OR OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST SATURDAY
NIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 105 MPH...165
KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. IRENE IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS
FORECAST BEFORE IRENE REACHES THE COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA.

IRENE IS A LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND
OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES...150 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL
STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 290 MILES...465 KM. NOAA
BUOY 41013 LOCATED ABOUT 40 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SOUTHPORT
NORTH CAROLINA RECENTLY MEASURED A WIND GUST TO 47 MPH...76 KM/H.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED FROM RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT DATA IS 946 MB...27.93 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO FIRST REACH THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE WARNING AREA THIS AFTERNOON. HURRICANE
FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO FIRST REACH THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA
TONIGHT OR SATURDAY MORNING...AND THEN SPREAD NORTHWARD IN THE
WARNING AREA THROUGH SUNDAY.

STORM SURGE...AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER
LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 6 TO 11 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL IN THE
HURRICANE WARNING AREA IN NORTH CAROLINA...INCLUDING THE ALBEMARLE
AND PAMLICO SOUNDS. STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH
AS 4 TO 8 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL OVER SOUTHERN POTIONS OF THE
CHESAPEAKE BAY...INCLUDING TRIBUTARIES...AND THE EASTERN SHORE OF
THE DELMARVA PENINSULA. STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS
MUCH AS 3 TO 6 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL ALONG THE JERSEY SHORE.
NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE...
DESTRUCTIVE...AND LIFE-THREATENING WAVES.

RAINFALL...IRENE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF
6 TO 10 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES...FROM
EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA NORTHWARD THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES
INTO NEW ENGLAND THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. THESE RAINS COULD
CAUSE WIDESPREAD FLOODING AND LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS.

SURF...LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY IRENE ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE
COAST OF THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. THESE SWELLS WILL CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 PM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

HURRICANE IRENE DISCUSSION NUMBER 25
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092011
1100 AM EDT FRI AUG 26 2011

DATA FROM NOAA AND AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT
SUGGEST THE INTENSITY OF IRENE IS SLIGHTLY LOWER. ALTHOUGH PEAK
FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS AT 700 MB WERE 111 KT...SFMR AND DROPSONDE
OBSERVATIONS INDICATED THAT A HIGHER-THAN-TYPICAL REDUCTION OF THE
WIND FROM FLIGHT-LEVEL TO THE SURFACE APPLIES...AND THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS REDUCED TO 90 KT. GIVEN THE CURRENT STORM STRUCTURE
AND PREDICTED ENVIRONMENTAL FACTORS...LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS
EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AFTER PASSING NORTH
CAROLINA...SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR IS FORECAST TO INCREASE AND SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL BE GRADUALLY DECREASING. THIS SHOULD
RESULT IN GRADUAL WEAKENING OF THE CYCLONE AS IT MOVES NEAR THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST. HOWEVER...IRENE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A LARGE
AND DANGEROUS TROPICAL CYCLONE AND HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE
DAMAGING WINDS...STORM SURGE FLOODING...AND EXTREMELY HEAVY RAINS
ALMOST ANYWHERE FROM EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA NORTHWARD THROUGH NEW
ENGLAND.

IRENE IS MOVING NORTHWARD OR 360/12 KT. THERE HAS BEEN NO CHANGE
TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY. IRENE SHOULD MOVE NORTHWARD FOR ANOTHER
12 HOURS OR SO....FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST
AS IT MOVES ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES. THE TRACK
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO AND NO CHANGE WAS
REQUIRED FROM THE PREVIOUS NHC FORECAST THROUGH 72 HOURS.

ONLY A SMALL ADJUSTMENT WAS MADE TO THE HURRICANE WARNING ON THIS
ADVISORY. IT IS ANTICIPATED THAT THE HURRICANE WARNING AND WATCH
AREAS WILL NEED TO BE EXTENDED NORTHWARD ALONG THE U.S. EAST COAST
THIS AFTERNOON.



FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 26/1500Z 30.7N 77.3W 90 KT 105 MPH
12H 27/0000Z 32.2N 77.1W 90 KT 105 MPH
24H 27/1200Z 34.4N 76.6W 90 KT 105 MPH
36H 28/0000Z 36.7N 75.6W 85 KT 100 MPH
48H 28/1200Z 39.5N 74.1W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 29/1200Z 47.5N 68.8W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND
96H 30/1200Z 55.5N 57.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 31/1200Z 59.0N 38.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
FORECASTER BROWN/BLAKE

[tolakram]

Personally I would like to see more disclaimers on posts guessing how bad Irene might be. We aren't done with Irene yet. ... I can't remember when .... is not providing accurate information.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Underestimating a storms strength can get you killed while over estimating will not. Thanks.

[Ivanhater]

Last couple of recon fixes have this moving a bit west of due north, where it was moving due north earlier

[SENClander]

11 am discussion out. Winds down to 105 mph. Same track though.

[Ivanhater]

Underestimating a storms strength can get you killed while over estimating will not. Thanks.

Thankfully, that is the attitude the federal, state and local officials are taking.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Does this storm have a very large eye (only visible on the radar, not the visible.) On CNBC, they are showing the storm approaching the coast and it looks to have a huge eye on the radar.... Kind of reminded me of the size of Ike's eye....

[maxintensity]

If all we do is use SFMR now determine storm intensity then call it a 90mph cat 1 hurricane with a 946mb pressure. The Saffir Simpson scale is absurd. IMO pressure should be the determining factor of storm intensity.

[littlevince]

000
URNT15 KWBC 261426
NOAA3 2609A IRENE HDOB 38 20110826
141630 3000N 07759W 7509 02284 9745 +164 +144 310076 077 059 001 00
141700 2959N 07801W 7511 02290 9754 +165 +141 312073 074 057 002 00
141730 2958N 07802W 7511 02301 9768 +163 +128 311069 071 056 001 00
141800 2956N 07804W 7511 02308 9773 +169 +119 308066 066 055 000 00
141830 2955N 07805W 7512 02314 9775 +175 +119 312067 067 055 000 00
141900 2954N 07807W 7510 02323 9788 +169 +119 315065 066 054 002 00
141930 2952N 07809W 7512 02326 9802 +161 +123 316066 067 054 002 00
142000 2951N 07810W 7508 02338 9808 +161 +132 312064 066 055 000 00
142030 2950N 07812W 7512 02342 9814 +164 +133 312061 062 055 000 00
142100 2948N 07814W 7509 02350 9824 +159 +137 313060 060 054 001 00
142130 2947N 07815W 7511 02353 9832 +155 +141 314058 059 053 000 00
142200 2946N 07817W 7510 02360 9843 +149 +145 313060 061 053 001 00
142230 2944N 07819W 7510 02368 9854 +146 +146 316059 060 051 001 00
142300 2943N 07820W 7512 02372 9862 +147 +142 318057 058 051 001 00
142330 2942N 07822W 7510 02381 9867 +149 +140 315053 054 052 001 00
142400 2940N 07824W 7511 02385 9868 +154 +137 318056 057 050 001 00
142430 2939N 07825W 7511 02392 9882 +145 +141 320056 056 050 000 00
142500 2937N 07827W 7511 02397 9889 +145 +142 320055 056 049 000 00
142530 2936N 07829W 7510 02404 9894 +146 +141 320053 054 049 000 00
142600 2934N 07830W 7510 02409 9901 +146 +139 319054 055 049 000 00


000
URNT15 KNHC 261449
AF306 2709A IRENE HDOB 35 20110826
143930 3157N 07601W 6969 03076 9973 +092 +032 139080 080 048 006 00
144000 3156N 07602W 6967 03076 9971 +092 +032 138081 081 048 005 00
144030 3155N 07603W 6966 03077 9972 +089 +032 138080 081 046 008 00
144100 3154N 07605W 6967 03072 9970 +088 +032 139081 082 047 007 00
144130 3153N 07606W 6966 03068 9965 +088 +032 141080 081 049 009 00
144200 3152N 07607W 6966 03065 9960 +090 +033 141078 078 050 010 00
144230 3151N 07608W 6966 03063 9957 +089 +034 140079 079 050 010 00
144300 3150N 07610W 6967 03060 9959 +085 +034 138079 081 052 011 00
144330 3148N 07611W 6965 03060 9961 +081 +034 136080 082 051 011 00
144400 3147N 07612W 6968 03052 9961 +079 +034 135085 086 052 010 00
144430 3146N 07614W 6967 03050 9949 +084 +034 138088 089 052 008 00
144500 3145N 07615W 6967 03048 9935 +093 +035 141084 085 054 005 00
144530 3144N 07616W 6969 03041 9930 +094 +035 142084 085 055 006 00
144600 3143N 07617W 6963 03046 9936 +086 +035 141083 085 056 013 00
144630 3142N 07618W 6968 03037 9940 +080 +036 138082 085 058 014 00
144700 3141N 07620W 6963 03035 9934 +080 +036 139088 090 058 014 00
144730 3140N 07621W 6971 03027 9927 +084 +036 141088 092 059 012 00
144800 3139N 07622W 6961 03033 9908 +094 +037 143083 084 059 012 00
144830 3138N 07623W 6966 03026 9915 +088 +037 143085 087 061 011 00
144900 3137N 07625W 6967 03016 9903 +093 +037 144085 087 063 013 00
$$
;

[tolakram]

Live VIS loop for this morning.

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... map=latlon

[Chacor]

Obviously, they aren't simply using SFMR, so that post is absurd.

[ozonepete]

When was the last time a recurving mature cyclone actually experienced an appreciable increase in strength while crossing the Gulf Stream? I always hear this as a rationale, but it seems an "excuse of last resort" if you examine empirical evidence, especially for cyclones whose potential is being capped by factors other than SST, like Irene.

The last storm I remember bombing out in this location is Hugo, but it wasn't in a recurve and still underneath a ridge. It also developed an amazing outflow jet which has little to do with SST. The fact that it happened to be over the Gulf Stream may be coincidental more than anything else.

I agree with this. I always hear of every cyclone that gets this way - "The Gulf Stream will provide heat to make her bomb" - Not very many have, in fact I cannot think of any where the Gulf Stream actually helped the storm.

Where do you guys get your information? Since the Gulf Stream water is higher in temperature than the water around it, when a TC moves over it it is moving over warmer water, often abruptly warmer over a short distance. So what you are basically saying is that a TC encountering much warmer water cannot appreciably increase in strength. You say "... Not very many have, in fact I cannot think of any.." I have been following Atlantic hurricanes for decades and can't count the number of times this has happened and the NHC was the one who forecast it and/or documented it. I think the NHC would be very surprised to find out that hurricane can't "bomb out" over the Gulf stream.

[seahawkjd]

I remember going to bed with Bertha down to a tropical storm and waking up to a cat 2 hurricane bearing in on the coast after it crossed the gulf stream.

[linkerweather]

If all we do is use SFMR now determine storm intensity then call it a 90mph cat 1 hurricane with a 946mb pressure. The Saffir Simpson scale is absurd. IMO pressure should be the determining factor of storm intensity.

The reason you can't simply use pressure to determine intensity is because pressure and wind speed aren't a direct enough relationship. It is the pressure gradient. You could have what seems like a relatively high pressure but could have a strong hurricane because the surrounding environment has relatively high pressure. Conversely, if the surround pressures are low, you would need to have a much lower pressure within a hurricane to have the higher wind speed.

[littlevince]

I'm leaving at 15z, someone take it


000
URNT15 KWBC 261436
NOAA3 2609A IRENE HDOB 39 20110826
142630 2933N 07832W 7510 02415 9906 +146 +141 318058 059 048 000 00
142700 2931N 07834W 7510 02419 9912 +143 +146 317056 057 049 001 00
142730 2930N 07835W 7511 02420 9917 +144 +137 316055 055 049 002 00
142800 2928N 07837W 7511 02425 9921 +143 +138 314054 055 047 001 00
142830 2927N 07839W 7513 02425 9925 +144 +130 313052 053 047 001 00
142900 2926N 07840W 7512 02427 9930 +141 +131 314051 052 048 003 00
142930 2924N 07842W 7513 02431 9934 +139 +141 316054 054 047 002 00
143000 2923N 07843W 7511 02436 9939 +136 //// 318056 059 046 002 01
143030 2921N 07845W 7512 02440 9943 +137 +142 312056 058 044 002 00
143100 2920N 07847W 7512 02443 9949 +138 +129 311051 052 043 000 00
143130 2919N 07848W 7511 02445 9952 +138 +124 313051 052 042 001 00
143200 2917N 07850W 7510 02449 9953 +139 +121 312051 052 044 001 03
143230 2916N 07851W 7512 02449 9956 +140 +121 309050 051 043 001 00
143300 2916N 07853W 7512 02450 9952 +147 +111 310049 050 042 001 00
143330 2915N 07855W 7511 02454 9959 +141 +117 317048 051 042 000 00
143400 2914N 07857W 7510 02456 9960 +142 +123 319054 054 046 001 00
143430 2913N 07859W 7511 02458 9962 +139 +142 316050 052 048 005 00
143500 2913N 07901W 7513 02459 9965 +139 +141 318052 054 046 002 00
143530 2912N 07903W 7511 02462 9967 +144 +115 318056 057 044 002 00
143600 2911N 07904W 7511 02464 9972 +141 +116 322057 057 041 004 03


000
URNT15 KNHC 261459
AF306 2709A IRENE HDOB 36 20110826
144930 3136N 07626W 6962 03019 9893 +097 +037 145088 090 062 014 00
145000 3135N 07627W 6970 03006 9889 +097 +037 145089 091 064 013 00
145030 3134N 07628W 6966 03007 9896 +088 +038 143086 090 063 014 00
145100 3133N 07630W 6967 03004 9899 +082 +039 143086 090 062 020 00
145130 3132N 07631W 6966 03002 9881 +096 +039 145084 085 062 020 00
145200 3131N 07632W 6964 03004 9874 +099 +038 141083 085 065 015 00
145230 3130N 07633W 6967 02996 9868 +100 +038 140078 079 065 009 00
145300 3129N 07635W 6969 02988 9862 +101 +038 139079 079 061 006 00
145330 3127N 07636W 6967 02984 9854 +102 +038 139081 081 063 006 00
145400 3126N 07637W 6966 02979 9848 +100 +039 137084 086 064 005 00
145430 3125N 07639W 6969 02970 9841 +102 +040 139086 087 066 011 00
145500 3124N 07640W 6971 02961 9847 +091 +040 142088 091 067 012 00
145530 3123N 07641W 6967 02960 9839 +091 +040 142082 084 068 013 00
145600 3122N 07642W 6968 02955 9832 +092 +041 144085 087 069 015 00
145630 3121N 07644W 6968 02948 9828 +092 +041 146082 084 069 014 00
145700 3120N 07645W 6964 02948 9824 +090 +042 145087 088 068 018 00
145730 3119N 07646W 6965 02940 9817 +091 +041 142082 085 068 017 00
145800 3118N 07647W 6966 02935 9808 +092 +042 145090 093 068 014 00
145830 3117N 07648W 6970 02921 9803 +090 +042 146092 094 070 013 00
145900 3116N 07650W 6968 02918 9790 +095 +041 148097 097 071 010 00
$$
;

[WeatherLovingDoc]

Can someone help me find the slosh models for the New Jersey to New England area?
Thanks...

Look through the Irene Discussion thread from page 295 and beyond. There are examples there.

[SENClander]

Irene hasn't gotten to the warmest waters off the Carolina coast yet. NHC has said not much strengthening before landfall and they are the pros. But like seahawk said we have watched them grow significantly before landfall just hours before landfall.

[psyclone]

The lack of a visible eye does mean that it's weakened, and while the NHC did say it might restrengthen, my own opinion is that it might not, since the waters are progessively cooler as it approaches the NC coast...

From what I read the SFMR is showing winds far less than 110 mph, so that's also a good sign - hopefully it'll stay that way...

The truth is that Irene has never itensified to anything more than a Category 3 - like rope tornadoes versus stovepipe tornadoes, some tropical cyclones just never get to that extreme level, for a variety of reasons - it seems Irene thankfully is of that variety...

Frank

these sorts of posts, which continue to persist despite being debunked by recent history (Ike, Ivan) are driving me insane. Even if this storm continues to degrade to the point of landfall, it is massive, is destined to unwind slowly and represents an extreme threat. that threat is already in motion...it's the ocean. and it will remain in motion regarless of what the peak intensity is. charley, which struck a surge prone area as a category 4 only generated 6 to 7 feet of surge. compare that to ike which struck as a cat 2 and generated about 20 feet of surge. if that doesn't demonstrate how antiquated the ss scale is i don't know what else to say. and i hope folks coming for info disregard these types of posts, some of which are coming from posters who should know better! put another way, if the average hurricane is a lawn mower, this one is a brush hog. don't mess with it and don't focus on max intensity.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[ncbird]

OK I had to turn off the TV and come back to Storm2K for my info. I just can't deal with listening to the met saying they think this will increase to a strong cat 3 and possibly flirt with cat 4 as it make landfall and goes into the sound here. Just is making me to nervous.

[StormGuy]

OK I had to turn off the TV and come back to Storm2K for my info. I just can't deal with listening to the met saying they think this will increase to a strong cat 3 and possibly flirt with cat 4 as it make landfall and goes into the sound here. Just is making me to nervous.

I guess they're not paying much attention to the latest NHC update which keeps the storm at a cat 2 or lower now.

[Frank2]

these sorts of posts, which continue to persist despite being debunked by recent history (Ike, Ivan) are driving me insane....

Sorry, but this is a discussion board - because it drives you insane doesn't mean it might not be of help to someone else...

The reality is that the fear by some new posters here is palpable and needs to be addressed - many were killed by past hurricanes not only due to inaction but also due to irrational fear that forced them to do something they later regretted...

The current NHC discussion does address the fact that the hurricane will possibly weaken as it passes the NC coast - does it mean the danger is past - no - but it does mean that the public still needs to listen to official statements issued by their local NWS office and public officials through the local media...

Frank