ATL: IRENE - Remnants - Discussion

[Chacor]

No, based on the wind field graphic at the 11 am advisory, the SC/NC coast should already be feeling effects of TS force winds.

[SNOW_JOKE]

O/T: Wow, three fighter jets just screamed across NOVA from Andrews Airforce Base, and they stll keep coming. Possible no-fly zone violation?

I just saw that as well.

100 fighters and KC Tankers got evac from one of the main bases on the East Coast, into Louisiana instead. Along with airmen and their families with the USAF not taking any chances with so much billions of $$$ on the tarmac. More than likely pre-emptive ops moving equipment to sheltered bases along southern states.

[seahawkjd]

No, based on the wind field graphic at the 11 am advisory, the SC/NC coast should already be feeling effects of TS force winds.

True. Ok then just another example of just how big this thing is.....

[Macrocane]

000
URNT15 KNHC 261619
AF306 2709A IRENE HDOB 44 20110826
160930 3139N 07524W 6967 03083 9987 +084 +038 155088 089 054 006 00
161000 3141N 07525W 6967 03080 9984 +085 +038 155087 089 053 006 00
161030 3143N 07527W 6968 03079 9992 +076 +038 157087 088 052 006 00
161100 3145N 07528W 6972 03073 9986 +080 +038 156086 086 050 006 00
161130 3147N 07530W 6966 03068 9971 +088 +038 154086 087 050 004 00
161200 3150N 07531W 6967 03076 9969 +091 +037 152087 087 050 004 00
161230 3152N 07532W 6967 03078 9971 +092 +037 151084 085 051 004 00
161300 3154N 07534W 6968 03076 9967 +094 +038 152084 084 051 005 00
161330 3156N 07535W 6965 03080 9973 +089 +038 150084 085 052 005 00
161400 3158N 07537W 6970 03074 9978 +087 +038 148084 085 051 005 00
161430 3200N 07538W 6969 03076 9979 +085 +038 146086 086 049 005 00
161500 3202N 07539W 6968 03078 9981 +085 +037 145087 088 051 006 00
161530 3204N 07541W 6967 03077 9979 +085 +037 147085 086 053 004 00
161600 3207N 07542W 6970 03077 9982 +085 +037 146082 083 051 005 00
161630 3209N 07543W 6966 03083 9974 +090 +037 143079 082 049 006 00
161700 3211N 07545W 6961 03087 9980 +085 +037 143080 081 049 006 00
161730 3213N 07546W 6965 03087 9983 +093 +037 142080 080 049 005 00
161800 3215N 07548W 6965 03180 0067 +090 +036 141081 081 048 003 00
161830 3217N 07549W 6974 03172 0068 +091 +035 141078 079 048 001 00
161900 3219N 07550W 6968 03100 0003 +089 +035 138076 078 047 002 00
$$

[Dave]

[xironman]

As someone who's been through several storms here, I'd love to hear your thoughts about New Bern as well. I'm especially interested in what areas of downtown tend to flood. Feel free to PM me! Thanks!

Almost all of the area's along the Neuse river there in town will flood to some extent. The park there by the bridge and along with the road there is usually pretty bad. I expect with the length of time the water will be getting pushed up into the river due to the size of the hurricane, the flooding is going to get real bad. If you live anywhere close to the rivers or creeks, my advise is to park your car some where on higher ground and away from the water-ways if you can.

The water must funnel up the river there

[HugoCameandLeft]

Conditions are really starting to deteriorate here in Charleston the last 20 min or so.

[UpTheCreek]

Looks, and is acting, very similar to Isabel...only difference is the direction of travel. Isabel managed to pull together before landfall, but didn't have the chance to intensify (Isabel also had the higher than usual ratio, as on 17 Sept, Recon found numerous spots of 115 to 120 knot winds, but dropsondes said the surface winds were lower than the usual ratio). Interesting stuff.

If memory serves me, we were getting 50-60 mph sustained and some 70+ mph gusts from Isabel, here in New Bern. I expect stronger from Irene. Does have an Isabel feeling to it because of it's size though. Isabel was HUGE, but a fast mover, thankfully.

[CronkPSU]

I have it tracking at about 355 now. On the last pass with the air force plane there was an 83kt flight level wind about 160 miles from the center.

The official track shows it turning nne over the next 8-10 hours...anyone think that will verify? I see it staying on this northern path for longer than that


Disclaimer...i know nothing, euro and nhc overrule my ramblings

[sandyb]

raining here in Newport I am headed to Atlantic Beach to see Jeff Marrow from the weather channel and the waves

[InstantWeatherMaps]

What are the units? Millimeters, I'm assuming. In that case, 25.3 mm is about 1 inch.

Actually I think it's hundredths of an inch.

That doesn't quite add up right. That means the darkest color is only 1-1.5 inches in 3hrs. With a storm like this, I doubt that's right.

Then look at this:


There's no way that many members would be showing 30" of rain.

[Dave]

Recon Schedule for Today...if you see a mission that isn't being covered and want to do it go ahead and pick it up. Everyone's welcome to post hdobs & information...we don't turn help down.

Code: Select all

000
NOUS42 KNHC 251500 COR
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1100 AM EDT THU 25 AUGUST 2011
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
         VALID 26/1100Z TO 27/1100Z AUGUST 2011
         TCPOD NUMBER.....11-086 CORRECTION

I.  ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
    1. HURRICANE IRENE -- CORRECTED FOR CALL SIGNS--
       FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70     FLIGHT TWO -- NOAA 49
       A. 26/12Z,15Z,18Z         A. 27/00Z
       B. AFXXX 2709A IRENE      B. NOAA9 2809A IRENE
       C. 26/0915Z               C. 26/1730Z
       D. 29.5N 77.8W            F. 41,000 TO 45,000 FT
       E. 26/1130Z TO 26/18Z
       F. SFC TO 15,000 FT       FLIGHT FOUR -- NOAA 42
                                 A. 27/00Z
       FLIGHT THREE -- TEAL 71   B. NOAA2 3009A IRENE
       A. 26/21Z,27/00Z,03Z      C. 26/20Z
       B. AFXXX 2909A IRENE      F. SFC TO 15,000 FT
       C. 26/18Z
       D. 31.0N 77.6W           FLIGHT SIX -- NOAA 49
       E. 26/2030Z TO 27/03Z     A. 27/12Z
       F. SFC TO 15,000 FT       B. NOAA9 3209A IRENE
                                 C. 27/0530Z
       FLIGHT FIVE -- TEAL 72    F. 41,000 TO 45,000 FT
       A. 27/06Z,09Z,12Z         A. 27/12Z
       B. AFXXX 3109A IRENE
       C. 27/0315Z               FLIGHT SEVEN -- NOAA 43
       D. 32.4N 77.3W            A. 27/12Z
       E. 27/0530Z TO 27/12Z     B. NOAA3 3309A IRENE
       F. SFC TO 15,000 FT       C. 27/08Z
                                 D. SFC TO 15,000 FT

    2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: CONTINUE 3-HRLY FIXES,
       P-3 MISSIONS CONTINUE EVERY 12 HRS.



[mph101]

What I don't understand is how come the models or even forecasters didn't take into account all of the dry air to Irene`s west from day one? I've read some post but I couldn't read everything since I posted a very similar comment on pg 274 of this topic. Taking into account its closeness to mountains and islands is a fact but plenty of storms (i.e. Georges 1998) track over or near these high peaks and still have a better moist structure then Irene had from the start.
This storm has always looked ragged and never had a rich super moist environment or a well formed eye. Last night it did after many claim that it was having a eye wall replacement that lasted over 20 hrs. But by the time dawn broke Irene is back to sucking in a lot of dry air even wrapping in from the southwest from Florida.
Could it be that all that dry air to the west and southwest choke off Irene?
Not to diminish the fact that its a serious and dangerous storm but hopefully the dry air will even get more entrenched and dry it out a bit more. Just observing water vapor satellite and being in actual storms over the years you can note that without fail this happens almost every time and just wrecks the low level tropical system.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

-- edit by tolakram: added disclaimer.

[Dave]

HDOBS Links for Recon Missions:

USAF HDOBS:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/URNT15-USAF.shtml?

NOAA HDOBS:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/URNT15-NOAA.shtml?

Vortex Data Messages - Both USAF & NOAA

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAREPNT2.shtml?

Dropsonde Reports - Both USAF & NOAA

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAREPNT3.shtml?

[tolakram]

Latest Visible Loop (live): http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... map=latlon

IR: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... =spect.pal

Final frames from each:

[xironman]

I have it tracking at about 355 now. On the last pass with the air force plane there was an 83kt flight level wind about 160 miles from the center.

The official track shows it turning nne over the next 8-10 hours...anyone think that will verify? I see it staying on this northern path for longer than that


Disclaimer...i know nothing, euro and nhc overrule my ramblings

I don't think it will turn until that ridge to the east erodes a bit more or it gets north of it.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/dlmmain.php?&basin=atlantic&sat=wg8&prod=dlm3&zoom=&time=

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Macrocane]

000
URNT15 KNHC 261629
AF306 2709A IRENE HDOB 45 20110826
161930 3221N 07551W 6966 03098 9998 +087 +034 140077 078 049 004 00
162000 3223N 07553W 6973 03087 0007 +079 +034 133077 078 048 004 03
162030 3225N 07553W 6963 03099 0002 +079 +034 133076 077 050 004 03
162100 3226N 07552W 6969 03089 9999 +083 +034 134075 077 050 005 00
162130 3227N 07551W 6966 03096 0012 +075 +034 135078 078 051 004 00
162200 3229N 07549W 6967 03096 0010 +079 +033 138078 080 051 005 00
162230 3230N 07548W 6967 03099 0008 +084 +033 136078 079 051 005 00
162300 3231N 07547W 6971 03096 0009 +083 +033 133077 078 050 004 00
162330 3232N 07546W 6969 03103 0017 +080 +032 132078 078 /// /// 03
162400 3232N 07545W 6961 03112 0020 +079 +032 133073 074 051 003 03
162430 3231N 07544W 6973 03101 0012 +086 +032 140070 071 /// /// 03
162500 3230N 07545W 6969 03102 0009 +085 +031 141073 075 044 002 00
162530 3229N 07546W 6963 03102 0002 +086 +031 141076 076 044 002 00
162600 3228N 07548W 6967 03098 0001 +086 +031 141074 076 046 003 00
162630 3227N 07549W 6965 03098 9998 +086 +031 140074 075 047 001 00
162700 3226N 07550W 6967 03094 9996 +086 +031 139076 076 047 001 00
162730 3225N 07551W 6970 03087 9991 +089 +032 138075 076 047 002 00
162800 3224N 07553W 6962 03094 9989 +086 +031 137073 074 047 002 00
162830 3222N 07554W 6966 03085 9989 +083 +032 136074 075 048 003 00
162900 3221N 07555W 6966 03084 9984 +086 +032 135077 078 049 004 00
$$
;

[Dave]

[hurricanefloyd5]

http://ww2.witntv.com/global/video/flas ... d=78238454

live reports from NC

[ConvergenceZone]

tolakram, thanks for posting the lastest satellite. I'm done commenting on whether it's looking better or worse anymore, becauase everytime I think the hurricane seems to be organizing, 2 hours later it's looking worse and vice versa.....Keeping my mouth shut now...


edit: just kidding . Strength vrs weakening posts are fun and challenging....