Caribbean - Central America Weather

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
959 PM AST THU AUG 25 2011

.UPDATE...SHOWERS OVER LAND ARE NEARLY GONE NOW AND SHOWERS OVER
WATER HAVE BEEN DIMINISHING STEADILY. NAM IS MUCH WETTER THAN GFS
AND PRESENTLY DO NOT SEE SUPPORT FOR ITS SOLUTION IN THE MOISTURE
FIELD. MIMIC PRODUCT SHOWS A WEAKENING IN THE PRECIPITABLE WATER
INTRUDING FROM THE EAST.
&&

.DISCUSSION...THE SAN JUAN SOUNDER SHOWS THAT THE PRECIPITABLE
WATER HAS JUST DROPPED BELOW 2 INCHES. HENCE THE DRIER FRIDAY THAT
HAD BEEN PROMISED FOR SEVERAL DAYS NOW IS ARRIVING. OF COURSE
THAT WILL NOT PREVENT SHOWERS FROM FORMING IN THE EARLY MORNING ON
THE WINDWARD SIDE OF THE ISLAND OR THE USUAL AFTERNOON
CONVECTION...BUT IT WILL REDUCE AMOUNTS SOMEWHAT FOR THE NEXT 36
TO 48 HOURS.

[Gustywind]

QUESTIONS TO...

"Sus to the Brown algae."

Interview by a. j. V. France-Antilles Guadeloupe25.08.2011

http://www.microsofttranslator.com/bv.a ... 136109.php


You hold a meeting on the problem of the Brown algae that clog our beaches for a month. So long to respond?

JACQUES GILLOT, President of the General Guadeloupe. Needed that information goes back to town halls and also the regional agency of health gives us expertise: these Brown algae are a danger to our health? It seems that it is not, but that the Brown algae, however, are dangerous for the flora and marine fauna of the coast of Guadeloupe. We decided with the State, region, national park, the NFB, the Deal, the representatives of particularly affected Commons, in the presence of Ferdy Louisy, Chairman of the environment of the Council, to get together and put in place actions.

What are they?

First removal and the backshore positioning algae, the use of mechanization for 80% of the beaches and the human means 20% of the beaches of difficult access, through the mobilization of the sites of insertion, for the implementation of the operations of removal of algae, the seizin of the intermunicipal Union, Sites and beaches, on my initiative, to mobilize the necessary financial meansin its skills in terms of development of the beaches, the prosecution, on the initiative of the services of the State, regular overflights by helicopter for the purposes to observe the progression of the Brown algae seas and the occurrence of new wave.

What beaches are the most concerned?

There are four for which there is urgency to intervene: the door of hell in Anse-Bertrand, the Saltworks in Gosier, wood Jolan at Sainte-Anne, and Petit-Bourg. The other parties have asked me to coordinate these actions. I have accepted.

[cycloneye]

Good morning.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
455 AM AST FRI AUG 26 2011

.SYNOPSIS...HURRICANE IRENE ALTHOUGH WELL NORTHWEST OF THE REGION ACROSS
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...CONTINUED TO INDIRECTLY AFFECT THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN
THIS MORNING BY HELPING TO CREATE A LIGHT TO MODERATE EAST SOUTHEAST
WIND FLOW ACROSS THE AREA. MEANWHILE... SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC SOUTHWARD INTO THE LOCAL ATLANTIC
WILL GRADUALLY BUILD ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN TODAY AND INTO THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND. THIS IN TURN WILL HELP CREATE A MORE EASTERLY WIND
FLOW ACROSS THE ISLANDS AND LOCAL WATERS. MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE NOW
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN/ERODE...AS A TUTT LOW JUST
NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARDS...BECOMES AMPLIFIED AND SINKS FURTHER
WEST SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN AND OVER THE LOCAL AREA
BY SUNDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A SLIGHTLY DRIER TREND IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 TO
36 HOURS...HOWEVER STILL EXPECT PWAT VALUES TO REMAIN ABOVE 1.75
INCHES THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY AND
FORECAST MODEL GUIDANCE. THEREFORE...EXPECT LOCAL AND DIURNAL
PROCESSES TO HELP INDUCE CONVECTION ACROSS PARTS OF THE ISLANDS...
PARTICULARLY PUERTO RICO DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON
HOURS. ALTHOUGH WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS
TIME...AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL PRODUCE PERIODS OF MODERATE TO
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IN SOME AREAS...AS AN UPPER LEVEL WIND
MAXIMA DIGGING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA TODAY IS EXPECTED TO
PROVIDE SUFFICIENT VENTILATION FOR ENHANCED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL...AND WEST TO
NORTHWEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. SOIL REMAIN HIGHLY SATURATED
AND SOME RIVERS AND STREAMS CONTINUE AT HIGH LEVELS. THEREFORE...
ANY ADDITIONAL RAINFALL WILL CAUSE THESE RIVERS TO REACT VERY
QUICKLY... AND MAY ONCE AGAIN LEAD TO URBAN AND SMALL STREAM
FLOODING...AS WELL AS POSSIBLE MUDSLIDES.

FOR THE WEEKEND...EXPECT MAINLY LOCAL TERRAIN AND DIURNALLY DRIVEN
CONVECTION ACROSS SOME OF THE ISLANDS ON SATURDAY. HOWEVER...BY
SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY...THE APPROACHING TUTT LOW AND AN INDUCED
LOW TO MID LEVEL LEVEL TROUGH/TUTT REFLECTION WILL COMBINE WITH
LOCAL AND DIURNAL INFLUENCES TO ONCE AGAIN INCREASE SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS PARTS OF THE ISLANDS. THE GFS
MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS INCREASING DIVERGENT PATTERN ALOFT DURING
THAT TIME...WITH INCREASING PWAT VALUES TO 2.0 INCHES OR MORE
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.

THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A DRIER AIR MASS AND DECREASING MOISTURE AT
LEAST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH ONLY PASSING TRADE WIND
SHOWERS AND WEAK EASTERLY PERTURBATION AFFECTING THE AREA FROM TIME
TO TIME. THEREAFTER...MODELS SUGGEST DEVELOPMENT OF SOME TROPICAL
SYSTEMS A WEEK FROM NOW AS THEY APPROACH THE LESSER ANTILLES BUT
THIS IS STILL A LONG WAY OUT...AND AS USUAL SUBJECT TO CHANGE...BUT
WILL CONTINUE TO CLOSELY MONITOR AS WE QUICKLY APPROACH THE PEAK
OF THE HURRICANE SEASON.

&&

.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS ALL
TAF SITES UNTIL AT LEAST 26/17Z. HOWEVER AFTER 26/17Z...BRIEF MVFR
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE IN PASSING SHRA/TSRA...MAINLY OVER
TJBQ/TJMZ AND POSSIBLY TJSJ. WINDS WILL PREVAIL FROM THE EAST
SOUTHEAST BETWEEN 5 TO 10 KTS ALL THE WAY FROM THE SURFACE UP TO 25K
FEET...BECOMING MAINLY NORTHERLY AND STRONGER ABOVE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 88 77 88 78 / 40 10 20 20
STT 88 78 89 78 / 30 10 20 40

[Macrocane]

Hi!
-Near normal lows were registered in most of Central America yesterday, only in El Salvador they were warmer than average.
-Cooler than normal highs were experienced yesterday in El Salvador, Costa Rica, Panama and parts of Guatemala. Near normal highs occurred in the rest of the region.

Minimum Temperatures
Belize city, Belize 24°C (75°F)
Mountain Pine Ridge, Belize 21.0°C (67.8°F)
Guatemala city, Guatemala 16°C (61°F)
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 9.7°C (48.2°F)
Zacapa, Guatemala 23°C (75°F)
San Salvador, El Salvador 21.1°C (65.8°F) Warmest since July 4
Las Pilas, El Salvador 13.7°C (54.9°F)
San Miguel, El Salvador 22.8°C (71.2°F)
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 18°C (64°F)
La Esperanza, Honduras 15°C (57°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 24°C (73°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 24°C (75°F)
Jinotega, Nicaragua 18°C (66°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 17.6°C (62.1°F)
Liberia, Costa Rica 22.5°C (72.0°F)
Irazu volcano, Costa Rica 4.5°C (42.8°F) Coolest since July 22
Panama city, Panama 23.6°C (74.5°F)
Boquete, Panama 13.7°C (58.3°F)

Maximum Temperatures
Belize city, Belize 33°C (91°F)
Mountain Pine Ridge, Belize 29.7°C (84.2°F)
Guatemala city, Guatemala 23°C (73°F)
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 21.3°C (69.6°F)
Zacapa, Guatemala 35°C (97°F)
San Salvador, El Salvador 29.1°C (84.0°F)
Las Pilas, El Salvador 20.6°C (68.5°F)
San Miguel, El Salvador 32.6°C (90.1°F)
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 28°C (82°F)
La Esperanza, Honduras 23°C (73°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 31°C (90°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 32°C (91°F)
Jinotega, Nicaragua 27°C (81°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 26.6°C (82.6°F) Coolest since July 17
Liberia, Costa Rica 29.0°C (78.4°F) Coolest since July 13
Irazu volcano, Costa Rica 14.6°C (59.7°F)
Panama city, Panama 28.6°C (82.6°F)
Boquete, Panama 22.9°C (70.7°F)

[cycloneye]

FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
141 PM AST FRI AUG 26 2011

PRC031-061-087-127-139-261945-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FA.Y.0399.110826T1741Z-110826T1945Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
GUAYNABO PR-SAN JUAN PR-TRUJILLO ALTO PR-CAROLINA PR-LOIZA PR-
141 PM AST FRI AUG 26 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY
FOR THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES...

IN PUERTO RICO
GUAYNABO...SAN JUAN...TRUJILLO ALTO...CAROLINA AND LOIZA

* UNTIL 345 PM AST

* AT 139 PM AST...DOPPLER RADAR ESTIMATED MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN IN
THE ADVISORY AREA. RADAR ESTIMATES INDICATE THAT ABOUT 2 INCHES OF
RAIN HAVE ALREADY FALLEN AND AN ADDITIONAL INCH OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE.

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

&&

LAT...LON 1848 6608 1846 6607 1846 6604 1845 6603
1847 6599 1846 6596 1846 6595 1834 6593
1836 6608 1848 6613

$$

JJA
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
357 PM AST FRI AUG 26 2011

.SYNOPSIS...TUTT WILL CONTINUE MOVING WEST SOUTHWEST TOWARD AND
THEN ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...
AND WILL BECOME LOCATED JUST WEST OF THE LOCAL REGION MONDAY AND
TUESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...EXPECT GENERALLY FAIR
WEATHER ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA...BUT COMBINATION OF AVAILABLE
MOISTURE AND LOCAL EFFECTS SHOULD STILL RESULT IN NOCTURNALLY AND
DIURNALLY INDUCED CLOUDINESS...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. THEN FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AND PROBABLY
CONTINUING THROUGH MONDAY...LOWER LEVEL REFLECTIONS OF TUTT AND
ASSOCIATED MOIST SURGE WILL AFFECT THE LOCAL AREA...RESULTING IN
AN INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE FA. FOR TUESDAY...AN OVERALL "DRIER" AIR MASS IS
INDICATED BUT GENERALLY FAVORABLE TUTT LOCATION SHOULD COMBINE
LOCAL EFFECTS AND WHAT MOISTURE IS AVAILABLE...TO AGAIN PRODUCE
SOME CLOUDINESS...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
OVER PARTS OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS.

&&

.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS
ALL TAF SITES. HOWEVER...BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE IN SHRA/TSRA...MAINLY OVER TJBQ...TJMZ AND TJSJ. WINDS
WILL PREVAIL FROM THE EAST SOUTHEAST BETWEEN 5 TO 10 KTS ALL THE
WAY FROM THE SURFACE UP TO 15K FEET...BECOMING MAINLY NORTH AND
STRONGER ABOVE.

&&

.MARINE...EXPECT WINDS OF 16 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEAS OF 5 FEET OR
LESS THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 77 88 79 91 / 10 20 20 50
STT 78 88 78 89 / 10 20 40 50

[cycloneye]

Good morning.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
351 AM AST SAT AUG 27 2011

.SYNOPSIS...SURFACE HIGH EXTENDING WEAKLY INTO THE NORTHEAST
CARIBBEAN FROM THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC...WILL MAINTAIN A WEAK
PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TODAY. THE ATLANTIC
RIDGE WILL HOWEVER BUILD FURTHER SOUTHWEST BY SUNDAY...AND THEREFORE
INCREASE THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST TRADE WIND FLOW ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA.
TUTT LOW NOW EXTENDING SOUTHWARDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN LEEWARDS WILL
CONTINUE TO RETROGRESS ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS BY
SUNDAY...THEN CONTINUE TO JUST WEST NORTHWEST OF THE REGION BY
MONDAY OF NEXT WEEK WHERE IT WILL GRADUALLY FILL AND WEAKEN.

&&

.DISCUSSION...CONTINUED DRYING TREND EXPECTED TODAY ACROSS THE
LOCAL AREA WITH DECREASING PWAT VALUES...HOWEVER COMBINATION OF
LINGERING MOISTURE AND LOCAL EFFECTS WILL LEAD TO SOME NOCTURNAL
TRADE WIND SHOWERS IN THE EARLY MORNING...FOLLOWED BY DIURNALLY
INDUCED AFTERNOON CLOUDINESS...WITH SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
MAINLY ACROSS PARTS OF THE INTERIOR AND WEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO.
LESSER ACTIVITY IS FORECAST ACROSS MUCH OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS WHERE
MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

HOWEVER... LATER TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AND POSSIBLY INTO MONDAY...
EXPECT WEAK LOW LEVEL TUTT INDUCED PERTURBATIONS TO MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION FROM TIME TO TIME. THIS WILL BRING SMALL SURGES OF
MOISTURE ACROSS THE ISLANDS AND SURROUNDING WATERS...RESULTING IN
PERIODS OF CLOUDINESS...WITH MOSTLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. DUE TO THE
PRESENCE OF THE TUTT LOW...SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE ENHANCED AND
COULD LEAD TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND STRONG WIND GUST. THEREAFTER...
THIS WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE AT LEAST THROUGH THE END OF THE
WORK WEEK...WITH AN OVERALL DRIER WEATHER PATTERN DOMINATING EXCEPT
FOR PERIODS OF DIURNALLY INDUCED AND NOCTURNAL CONVECTION EACH
DAY. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS NOT EXPECTED FOR NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AT
THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TAF
SITES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH NO SIGNIFICANT AVIATION
WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST 27/16Z. AFTER 27/16Z BRIEF
MVFR CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE IN SHRA/TSRA...MAINLY OVER TJBQ
AND TJMZ. 00Z TJSJ RAOB SHOWED LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS BTWN SFC TO
5 KFT...BECOMING MAINLY EAST AT 10 KTS OR LESS BTWN 5-15 KFT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 89 78 89 77 / 20 20 50 30
STT 89 78 89 79 / 20 20 50 30

[Gustywind]

Tropical Activity between Africa and the Lesser Antilles

[flamingosun]

ANy more news from the DR, PR, T&C or The Bahamas?

[Macrocane]

Temperatures in Central America yesterday:
-Slightly warmer than normal lows were registered in Guatemala, central part of El Salvador, Honduras and Costa Rica, in the rest of the region the lows were near normal.
-Cooler than normal lows were registered in parts of Guatemala, in El Salvador, Honduras, Nicaragua and parts of Costa Rica, in the rest of the region they reached near normal values.

Minimum Temperatures
Belize city, Belize 26°C (79°F)
Mountain Pine Ridge, Belize 20.9°C (69.6°F)
Guatemala city, Guatemala 17°C (63°F)
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 10.9°C (51.6°F)
Zacapa, Guatemala 25°C (77°F)
San Salvador, El Salvador 21.2°C (70.2°F) Warmest since July 4
Las Pilas, El Salvador 11.7°C (53.1°F)
San Miguel, El Salvador 22.6°C (72.7°F)
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 19°C (66°F)
La Esperanza, Honduras 16°C (61°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 24°C (75°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 24°C (75°F)
Jinotega, Nicaragua 20°C (68°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 18.5°C (65.3°F)
Liberia, Costa Rica 22.1°C (71.8°F)
Irazu volcano, Costa Rica 6.5°C (43.7°F)
Panama city, Panama 23.2°C (73.8°F)
Boquete, Panama 13.6°C (56.5°F)

Maximum Temperatures
Belize city, Belize 33°C (91°F)
Mountain Pine Ridge, Belize 29.4°C (84.9°F)
Guatemala city, Guatemala 23°C (73°F)
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 21.2°C (70.2°F)
Zacapa, Guatemala 36°C (97°F)
San Salvador, El Salvador 27.8°C (82.0°F)
Las Pilas, El Salvador 18.5°C (65.3°F)
San Miguel, El Salvador 30.4°C (86.7°F) Coolest since June 26
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 27°C (81°F)
La Esperanza, Honduras 22°C (72°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 29°C (84°F) Coolest since June 25
Managua, Nicaragua 29°C (84°F) Coolest since July 16
Jinotega, Nicaragua 23°C (73°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 28.1°C (82.6°F)
Liberia, Costa Rica 28.7°C (83.7°F) Coolest since July 13
Irazu volcano, Costa Rica 14.4°C (57.9°F)
Panama city, Panama 31.7°C (89.1°F)
Boquete, Panama 22.2°C (72.0°F)

[cycloneye]

There was a 4.6 quake a little after noon EDT in Aruba. For more information,go to the Eastern Caribbean Seismic thread at the geology forum.

viewtopic.php?f=67&t=107389&p=2179381#p2179381

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
324 PM AST SAT AUG 27 2011

.SYNOPSIS...TUTT WILL CONTINUE MOVING WEST ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA
TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...THEN BECOME LOCATED JUST WEST OF THE
LOCAL REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...BEFORE
SHIFTING FURTHER WEST SOUTHWEST AND SLOWLY FILLING WEDNESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AND LINGERING
THROUGH MONDAY...LOWER LEVEL REFLECTIONS OF TUTT AND ASSOCIATED
MOIST SURGE WILL AFFECT THE LOCAL AREA AND WILL COMBINE WITH
INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE TUTT LOCATION...TO RESULT IN AN INCREASE
IN CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FA.
FOR TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AN OVERALL "DRIER" AIR MASS IS
INDICATED BUT A GENERALLY FAVORABLE TUTT LOCATION SHOULD COMBINE
WITH LOCAL EFFECTS AND WHAT MOISTURE IS AVAILABLE FOR AT LEAST
TUESDAY...TO AGAIN PRODUCE SOME CLOUDINESS...SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS MOST
TAF SITES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS WILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE UNTIL 27/22Z IN SHRA/TSRA OVER TJBQ AND TJMZ.
WINDS ARE MAINLY EAST AT 15 KTS OR LESS BTWN THE SFC AND 10 KFT.

&&

.MARINE...EXPECT WINDS OF 17 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEAS OF 5 FEET OR
LESS THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 78 90 78 90 / 20 50 30 30
STT 78 88 79 89 / 20 50 30 30

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

I hope all our members down there weathered the storm, and are A-okay.

[knotimpaired]

Vieques was hit very hard. I have heard of winds on the hill of 83 knots but we are close to the beach area and our weather station only registered 39.

Needless to say we have a 70+ tree down and many other around 50'. Trying to contact your insurance agent and local crews sucks. One tree landed on our 2 dishnet dishes.

Our Banana grove is gone as well as most of our tropials which were noted as the best 1 acre garden on the island.

We still have no power but are running in gen 24/7 but just got out phone and dsl back.

We are still loosing large branches so going outside is still a hazard.

As far as I know our merchants and bank are cash only unless they also got their phones back.

I have photos of our damage but have never figured out how to post them to S2K so if Luis or MJ wants them let me know.

So suffice to say, Gov Fortuno never sent the extra power crews
he promised and that is a main issue. The boats are running, the trucks should be on them.

By the way, down anyone want to swim in a black pool that used to be pristine clear?

The weather channel has every gov, the pres with the fema director on tv ever few minutes. What happened to fema sending a crew here to help us get our power back. They have admitted some areas are being told 1-2 months!

K

[cycloneye]

Good morning. Invest 92L in the Eastern Atlantic will be our next feature to watch this week.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
444 AM AST SUN AUG 28 2011

.SYNOPSIS...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDING SOUTHWEST ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN FROM THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC...WILL GRADUALLY
BUILD ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS WILL INCREASE
THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST TRADE WIND FLOW ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA AT LEAST
THROUGH WEDNESDAY BEFORE DECREASING AGAIN BY THE LATTER PART OF
THE UPCOMING WEEK. TUTT AND ASSOCIATED LOW NOW SAGGING SOUTHWARDS
ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN...
WILL CONTINUE TO RETROGRESS TOWARDS THE WEST NORTHWEST BY MONDAY...WHERE
IT WILL GRADUALLY FILL.THE TUTT IS SUPPORTED BY A WEAK LOW LEVEL TROUGH
NOW MOVING ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS WILL BE LIMITED TO MAINLY THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST
COASTAL SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO AND PARTS OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS DURING
THE EARLY MORNING. HOWEVER...EXPECT A GRADUAL INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS
WITH SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS LATER IN THE DAY ACROSS THE
ISLANDS DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF THE TUTT LOW AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH.
THESE TWO FEATURES WILL QUICKLY MOVE WESTWARD DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS OR SO...AND BRING A QUICK SURGE OF TROPICAL MOISTURE ACROSS
THE REGION...AND CONSEQUENTLY CAUSE A RAPID RISE IN PWAT VALUES.
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND PRECIPITABLE WATER ANALYSIS ALREADY DEPICTED
THIS SURGE OF MOISTURE SLOWLY ENTERING THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHEAST.
THE INCREASING MOISTURE COMBINED WITH LOCAL AND DIURNAL EFFECTS
WILL LEAD TO PERIODS OF ENHANCED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
LATER IN THE DAY AND POSSIBLY THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. SOME OF
THE RAINFALL WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY DURING
THE AFTERNOON OVER THE INTERIOR...AND WEST TO NORTHWEST SECTIONS
OF OF PUERTO RICO. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE
OVER PORTIONS OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...BUT WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS
NOT ANTICIPATED OVER THE ISLANDS.

ALTHOUGH AN OVERALL DRIER WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF
THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK...EXPECT WEAK EASTERLY PERTURBATIONS TO MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION FROM TIME TO TIME. THIS WILL RESULT IN PERIODS
OF CLOUDINESS...WITH MOSTLY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THEREFORE BRIEF PERIODS OF DIURNALLY
INDUCED AND NOCTURNAL CONVECTION WILL REMAIN LIKELY EACH DAY WITH
NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER FEATURE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS
MOST TAF SITES THROUGH 28/16Z. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP IN
WESTERN AND CENTRAL PUERTO RICO AND IN ISOLD SHRA AND TSRA OVER
LOCAL WATERS AFT 28/16Z. EXPECT MTN OBSCURATIONS AFT 28/17Z IN PR.
WINDS ARE MAINLY SOUTHEAST AT 10 KTS OR LESS BELOW 10 KFT...VARIABLE
LESS THAN 10 KTS UP TO 23 KFT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 89 78 90 78 / 40 30 30 20
STT 89 79 90 80 / 30 40 40 30

[DIwestender]

Here is a link for those with interests on Cat Island:

http://www.catislandhurricane.blogspot.com/

[Stephanie]

I'm sorry about your banana grove and other tropicals knotimpaired. I'm sure that it will be beautiful once again.

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
317 PM AST SUN AUG 28 2011

.SYNOPSIS...TUTT LOCATED OVER THE MONA PASSAGE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE MOVING WEST TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...BEFORE SHIFTING FURTHER WEST SOUTHWEST WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...WEAK LOWER LEVEL
REFLECTION OF TUTT AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO
AFFECT THE LOCAL AREA AND WILL COMBINE WITH FAVORABLE TUTT
LOCATION...TO RESULT IN SOME CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FA. FOR TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A
SOMEWHAT "DRIER" AIR MASS IS INDICATED BUT A GENERALLY FAVORABLE
TUTT LOCATION SHOULD COMBINE WITH LOCAL EFFECTS AND WHAT MOISTURE
IS AVAILABLE FOR AT LEAST TUESDAY...TO AGAIN PRODUCE SOME
CLOUDINESS...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER
PARTS OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS. DEEPER MOISTURE MAY RETURN FOR
THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TAF
SITES. MVFR CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP IN WESTERN AND CENTRAL PUERTO
RICO IN ISOLD SHRA AND TSRA OVER LOCAL WATERS AFT 28/19Z. EXPECT
MTN OBSCURATIONS AFT 28/19Z IN PR. WINDS ARE MAINLY SOUTHEAST AT
10 KTS OR LESS BELOW 10 KFT.

&&

.MARINE...EXPECT WINDS OF 16 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEAS OF 5 FEET OR
LESS THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 78 89 78 89 / 30 30 20 20
STT 79 89 80 89 / 40 40 30 30

[cycloneye]

Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert for 92L.

SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
WTNT03 KNGU 282100
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 100NM ON EITHER
SIDE OF A LINE FROM 10.0N 20.0W TO 10.0N 23.5W WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF A NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE
WARNING AT THIS TIME. WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM ARE ESTIMATED
TO BE 20 TO 25 KTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 28/1915Z INDICATES A
CIRCULATION CENTER MOVING WEST AT 10 TO 15 KTS.
2. REMARKS: AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS IS BECOMING ORGANIZED WITH CONCENTRATED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY.
THE SYSTEM HAS SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW, AND WARM
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF 81 TO 83 DEGREES FAHRENHEIT WHICH MAY
ENHANCE DEVELOPMENT.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR ALLOWED TO EXPIRE
BY 292100Z.
//

[cycloneye]

Near 100%

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE CONTINUED TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED
THIS EVENING IN ASSOCIATION WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED
ABOUT 400 MILES SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT
OF THIS LARGE DISTURBANCE...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 T0 15 MPH.
THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...NEAR 100 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.