ATL: IRENE - Remnants - Discussion

[theweatherwatch]

looking at visable you can see it's trying to hollow out a bigger eye but a fragment of the inner eyewall is still spinning around inside it. If the outer eyewall closes up than the inner remnant will finally clear out. Just my observation. That micowave imagery posted earlier shows the outer eyewall feature open to the south.

Last few recon VDM reported no eyewall of any kind!

[UpTheCreek]

Jevo, I wish to say thanks for all of your effort on this models thread the last four days or so. I have looked close at many an image you have taken the time to upload.
-WLD

+1

Coming right over our town at landfall, your work is so much appreciated. I owe you beeeeeeeeeeeer!

[CronkPSU]

That's hard to believe when you look at the latest satellite image. I mean she may not be Cat.3 right now
but there is no doubt in my mind she's a hurricane. Oh well all of these wind/pressure/etc. measurements are just plain
confusing some times. IMO

According to that sfmr, surface winds are barely hurricane strength

You're right Stormcenter. I'm not sure why Cronk wrote this ... but winds are 100 mph at the surface based on that SFMR. That is a lot more than "barely hurricane strength."

D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 68kts (~ 78.3mph)

when I asked earlier, I was told that those are what the actual winds are on the surface, according to recon...was that incorrect?

[psyclone]

if I see another post that down plays the recent down swing in convection I am going to jump out my window...thank god I live in a single story house...

Right now she is firing back up as she gets closer land...land friction can do wonderous thing to to TC....IKE was strengthening as he neared the coast....also she is over some warm water and shear has relaxed....high end cat 2 border 3 looks like a good bet....not the winds though that freaks me out....its the fact the Hwinds are over 100 miles away from the center....add 22ft waves to the storm surge you got massive damage inland...

You can't blame people for getting a little excited with relief that Irene is not going to hit with the force that was originally feared.
Stories of flooded NYC and parts of NC washed away were streaming out when Irene was looked to be a Cat 4 by now and maybe a 2/3 headed into NC and then up I-95 with winds at maybe a strong 1 or 2 when she got to NYC pushing an armageddon storm surge that would flood out Manhattan and knock down skyscrapers.
Now, the storm has not reached the level of strength that many feared and it will be a hurricane that is a 1 maybe a 2 when it reached the coast and the NWS says there is an 11% chance of Hurricane force winds for NYC.
This is NOT to downplay the effects of Hurricane hitting any coast and hitting NYC and the NE corridor as a borderline Hurricane or Strong TS or with the force that a bad Nor'easter gives in the winter.
I live in Palm Beach County south of where Frances and Jeanne struck and we had winds of no more than 90 or so but for many hours and the sounds coming from outside were frightening. Wilma was a 2 and did a tremendous amount of damage here so I know what a Hurricane can do.
I also know that Irene WILL NOT be as bad as originally feared and that it is OK for people to sigh a bit of relief at that.
They should not think that it will be a non-event but the hype has made it seem apocalyptic and it will probably not be that .
Let's just all try to stay realistic and not preach to people how they should and should not feel.
That includes myself; so if those in the path want to have panic attacks feel free and if some want to take a deep breath, stay calm and be prepared for whatever happens, they should do that.
Off my soapbox and back to lurking.......
Good luck to all in the path.

i think as long as folks in the path are in a sturdy building out of reach of storm surge they will get through the storm fine. my concern has always been that people will equate lower max winds with a minimized storm surge potential and stay in surge prone areas. we've seen humans vs storm surge in the past. it doesn't turn out well.

[SNOW_JOKE]

Wrightsville up 5ft on the Buoy the recent reading. Outer eyewall has still yet to hit, nevermind the Inner. http://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/geo.sh ... on=8658163

[ROCK]

You are kidding right.....I sigh of relief? we are not talking FL here...Irene is starting to form her eye wall now...

I have been all through NYC..Manhatten, the burrows and Long Island...we put banks right on the ocean for some reason....these area are full of mature trees that have not been tested even with TS winds. Saturate the ground and they are coming over. Add in Hurricane gusts more will come over...with that you have a power grid that is antiquated. Its going to go down. Lose power lose pumps for water, sewer drainage. Lose basic neccessities for humans. No gas...no transit...

You lose a window in Manhatten you are going to lose a whole lot more just because of the projectiles flying through the air at 60mph or more...No one is saying skyscrapers are going to fall over. Reality check......

[lostsole]

Thank god she isnt going to do what Nanmadol just did over in the WPAC!! Check this link and look at the eye open right before landfall! INCREDIBLE!!!
http://wxweb.meteostar.com/models/noaap ... UMBLOOP=10

[Jevo]

Jevo, I wish to say thanks for all of your effort on this models thread the last four days or so. I have looked close at many an image you have taken the time to upload.
-WLD

+1

Coming right over our town at landfall, your work is so much appreciated. I owe you beeeeeeeeeeeer!

No worries gang..... I remember when I first started on this forum and people would talk about models, ridges, troughs, and things that I couldnt even begin to fathom.. We have had some fantastic coverage in the models thread during this storm from Pro Mets and amateurs alike.. Hopefully making it easier for those looking at a GFS or ECMWF for the first time and getting dizzy from all of the swirly lines

[WxGuy1]

Irene certainly isn't an impressive hurricane. IR indicates that cloud tops continue to warm, evidence that convection/thunderstorms are weakening. The latest HRD wind analysis shows that there are almost no hurricane-strength winds in the western 1/2 of the circulation:

ftp://ftp.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/pub/hwind/2011/AL092011/0826/1630/AL092011_0826_1630_contour02.png

Moderate wind shear continues over Irene, and some drier air is evident around and to the W and N of Irene per satellite-estimated precipitable water and water vapor.

Convection may flare-up after sunset in the typical noctural progression, but I continue to say that the wind threat is *not* the primary risk with Irene. Being a very large storm, the surge will be greater-than-normal for only a Cat 1/2 storm. If you are aware from the coast, however, surge shouldn't be a huge problem, though inland flooding from very heavy rainfall may create flash flooding away from the coast.

Since the western hemisphere of Irene continues to be quite weak, I'm not entirely sure how much people who are >20 miles from the coast have to worry. Trees can still be toppled in 50 mph winds if the soil is very wet, and I think that, along with flash flooding, may be the biggest concern from non-coastal people. Depending upon exactly where Irene's center passes, the eastern part of the storm may affect eastern CT/RI/MA, but that's quite a few hours away.

Watching the "omg catastrophe and armageddon only a few hours away!" newscasts are disturbing me since I worry that we'll create complacency for the next storm that comes along if this one is being declared as such an imminent catastrophe (certainly the tone that describes much media reports of Irene) and fails to create such a catastrophe. I certainly do not want a massively devastating result, but the whirlwind of hype that the media has started may be very "dangerous" for future storms if we see anything about utter devastation.

It *is* important to realize that the surge and flooding potential is significant with Irene, so residents along the coast and in low-lying areas need to pay particular attention to Irene! If you are told to evacuate by your local officials, it is very important to do so!

[Jevo]

You know you have good consensus when the NAM starts lining up with all of the Main players... heh the NAM is garbage when it comes to tropical cyclone prediction.. great for synotpic though

12z NAM +54



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[ConvergenceZone]

Irene certainly isn't an impressive hurricane. IR indicates that cloud tops continue to warm, evidence that convection/thunderstorms are weakening. The latest HRD wind analysis shows that there are almost no hurricane-strength winds in the western 1/2 of the circulation:

Yes, if Irene continues to weaken at a decent rate, then storm surge and flooding will be the main threats. HOPEFULLY the winds will continue to drop off, which will help lessen any wind damage....

I don't buy into anyone who says it's strengthening right now, I just don't see it...Strengthening storms KEEP deep convection, they don't dissipate it 3 hours after it's developed, and just like said would happen earlier, the Reds are almost completely gone again....

[rlltex]

WxGuy1 wrote:
Watching the "omg catastrophe and armageddon only a few hours away!" newscasts are disturbing me since I worry that we'll create complacency for the next storm that comes along if this one is being declared as such an imminent catastrophe (certainly the tone that describes much media reports of Irene) and fails to create such a catastrophe.

I don't know about your local coverage but I think the national coverage has been very realistic. I don't think anyone has forecast a catastrophe. Ike was not Armageddon but to the people of Bolivar, Galveston, Bridge City and others in Texas it was disastrous. If the forecasters were any less forceful I don't think a lot of people would even listen. Also I think I'll always listen when Max Mayfield is seriously alarmed.

[Steve Cosby]

D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 68kts (~ 78.3mph)

when I asked earlier, I was told that those are what the actual winds are on the surface, according to recon...was that incorrect?

Isn't that the winds visible in the eye area?

[hcaeb]

Just heard from local news in NC that the wave height near Bald Head Island is approaching 20'! That is some serious flooding for the lower NC beaches. Talked with someone at Oak Island and they have had band - steady rain for going on 8 hrs. Rain & waves mean alot of water on the coast all the way up. Take care NC and heed the warnings.

[BigA]

Strength aside, Irene is enormous, and hence, its danger. The dropsondes show that TS winds extend some 325 miles to the east of the center. That will kick up an enormous fetch of wather.

[WilmingtonSandbar]

I may have missed it since i just got home after spending most of the afternoon running around in it finishing up work, but has anyone commented on how the latest steering map makes it look like the high to the east may be building back in and might want to push Irene back to the NW? I'm not -removed-, this storm is already going to be close enough for my liking. just getting a little more concerned is all.

BTW we have been having steady rain most of the afternoon, and just started getting our first couple squall lines move through about 30 minutes ago. Now all is quiet. I am about 30 miles due south of Wilmington (on the tip below) on the map.

[SouthFloridawx]

Does Irene appear to be a little elongated to you guys? Kind of looks like NE to SW...

[Tstormwatcher]

Always a chance wilmingtonsandbar. But right now looks like Atlantic beach will be landfall.

[SouthFloridawx]

Anyone have one of those Storm Surge potential generator websites?

[micktooth]

Anyone have one of those Storm Surge potential generator websites?

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ssurge/risk/index.shtml?gm