ATL: IRENE - Remnants - Discussion

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
HURRICANE IRENE ADVISORY NUMBER 26
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092011
500 PM EDT FRI AUG 26 2011

...LARGE HURRICANE IRENE HEADING TOWARD THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED
STATES...HURRICANE WARNING EXTENDED NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND....


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...31.7N 77.4W
ABOUT 265 MI...425 KM SSW OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...160 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...951 MB...28.08 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

A HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM NORTH OF SANDY HOOK TO
SAGAMORE BEACH MASSACHUSETTS...INCLUDING NEW YORK CITY...LONG
ISLAND...LONG ISLAND SOUND...COASTAL CONNECTICUT AND RHODE ISLAND...
BLOCK ISLAND...MARTHAS VINEYARD AND NANTUCKET.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM NORTH OF SAGAMORE
BEACH TO THE MOUTH OF THE MERRIMACK RIVER.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM THE MOUTH OF THE
MERRIMACK RIVER TO EASTPORT MAINE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* LITTLE RIVER INLET NORTH CAROLINA NORTHWARD TO SAGAMORE BEACH
MASSACHUSETTS...INCLUDING THE PAMLICO...ALBEMARLE...AND CURRITUCK
SOUNDS...DELAWARE BAY...CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF DRUM POINT...NEW
YORK CITY...LONG ISLAND...LONG ISLAND SOUND...COASTAL CONNECTICUT
AND RHODE ISLAND...BLOCK ISLAND...MARTHAS VINEYARD AND NANTUCKET.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF EDISTO BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA TO LITTLE RIVER INLET
* CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM DRUM POINT NORTHWARD AND THE TIDAL POTOMAC
* NORTH OF SAGAMORE BEACH TO MERRIMACK RIVER

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MERRIMACK RIVER TO EASTPORT MAINE

INTERESTS IN SOUTHEASTERN CANADA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
IRENE.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY
YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IRENE WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 31.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 77.4 WEST. IRENE IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/H. A TURN TOWARD THE
NORTH-NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED TONIGHT OR EARLY SATURDAY. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK...THE CORE OF THE HURRICANE WILL APPROACH THE COAST
OF NORTH CAROLINA TONIGHT AND PASS NEAR OR OVER THE NORTH CAROLINA
COAST ON SATURDAY. THE HURRICANE IS FORECAST TO MOVE NEAR OR OVER
THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST SATURDAY NIGHT AND MOVE OVER SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND ON SUNDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 100 MPH...160 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. IRENE IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST BEFORE
IRENE REACHES THE COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA. SOME WEAKENING IS
EXPECTED AFTER THAT...BUT IRENE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A HURRICANE
AS IT MOVES ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST ON SUNDAY.

IRENE IS A LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND
OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES...150 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL
STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 290 MILES...465 KM. NOAA
BUOY 41013 LOCATED ABOUT 40 MILES SOUTHEAST OF SOUTHPORT NORTH
CAROLINA RECENTLY REPORTED A SUSTAINED WIND OF 46 MPH...75 KM/H...
AND A GUST TO 60 MPH...96 KM/H.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 951 MB...28.08 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WILL SPREAD OVER THE SOUTHERN
PORTION OF THE WARNING AREA DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. HURRICANE
FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO FIRST REACH THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN
ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST OVERNIGHT WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS
EXPECTED BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO REACH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY NIGHT WITH
HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY.

STORM SURGE...AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER
LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 6 TO 11 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL IN THE
HURRICANE WARNING AREA IN NORTH CAROLINA...INCLUDING THE ALBEMARLE
AND PAMLICO SOUNDS. STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH
AS 4 TO 8 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA
FROM THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER NORTHWARD TO CAPE COD
INCLUDING SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY AND ITS
TRIBUTARIES. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
LARGE...DESTRUCTIVE...AND LIFE-THREATENING WAVES. STORM SURGE
VALUES ARE VERY LOCATION-SPECIFIC...AND USERS ARE URGED TO CONSULT
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THEIR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICES.

RAINFALL...IRENE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF
6 TO 10 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES...FROM
EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA NORTHWARD THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES
INTO NEW ENGLAND THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. THESE RAINS COULD
CAUSE WIDESPREAD FLOODING AND LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS.

SURF...LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY IRENE ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE
COAST OF THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. THESE SWELLS WILL CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS.

TORNADOES...ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER EXTREME EASTERN
NORTH CAROLINA LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 PM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN/CANGIALOSI

[WeatherGuesser]

5PM update is in....

Hurricane Warnings issued for NYC and Cape Cod areas

[vbhoutex]

Don't forget we have a live feed courtesy of Hurricanetrack.com from the OBX here-http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?f=59&t=111584

[Jevo]

Does Irene appear to be a little elongated to you guys? Kind of looks like NE to SW...

I think it has to do with the expected NNE turn that looks to be taking place in the last couple of frames

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/eaus/loop-vis.html

[SouthFloridawx]

What's the reduction of winds for recon flying at 700mb? 80%?

[CrazyC83]

What's the reduction of winds for recon flying at 700mb? 80%?

90%. However, it is like surface winds are less than that.

[BigA]

Recon found a pressure of 950 on a sonde, down from 951 last time, so technically it has stopped weakening. But it doesn't look to be gaining anything back.

[Tom8]

moving NE

[Airboy]

Is this remark something new? "ONE INNER EYEWALL FRAGMENT NE QUAD WITHIN 12 NM OF FIX"

[Javlin]

Well the models are actually projecting alittle strengthing before the Carolina landfall in the neighborhood of 80-90knt again take it for what it's worth.The intensity is still the hardest part to project forward I guess just way to many variables at play got to be like a car engine tweek this then that if something not right never get that full potential.

[tolakram]

Graphics for AF308 2909A IRENE

[tolakram]

Latest VDM

000
URNT12 KNHC 262117 CCA
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL092011
A. 26/20:38:40Z
B. 31 deg 36 min N
077 deg 19 min W
C. 700 mb 2665 m
D. 65 kt
E. 240 deg 56 nm
F. 331 deg 77 kt
G. 236 deg 79 nm
H. 950 mb
I. 11 C / 3048 m
J. 15 C / 3053 m
K. 2 C / NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 12345 / 7
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF308 2909A IRENE OB 04 CCA
MAX OUTBOUND AND MAX FL WIND 91 KT NE QUAD 20:59:30Z
MAX FL TEMP 17 C 229 / 12 NM FROM FL CNTR
INBOUND PK FL WNDS SW QUAD 78 KTS AT 79 NM RADIUS AND SECONDARY PEAK 76 KTS AT 36 NM
ONE INNER EYEWALL FRAGMENT NE QUAD WITHIN 12 NM OF FIX
PEAK WINDS FOUND IN OUTER RAINBAND 34 NM TO THE NE
;

[tolakram]

000
URNT15 KNHC 262128
AF308 2909A IRENE HDOB 19 20110826
211900 3301N 07624W 6966 03025 9911 +096 -002 137074 074 049 003 00
211930 3301N 07627W 6961 03034 9907 +099 -002 134074 075 052 004 00
212000 3302N 07630W 6965 03026 9905 +099 +000 132073 073 053 002 00
212030 3302N 07632W 6967 03022 9901 +102 +002 131073 073 054 002 00
212100 3302N 07635W 6961 03028 9902 +097 +005 130073 073 054 003 00
212130 3303N 07638W 6965 03020 9902 +095 +007 130073 074 053 002 00
212200 3303N 07640W 6964 03022 9904 +095 +009 129074 075 053 002 00
212230 3303N 07643W 6965 03018 9901 +095 +010 127074 074 054 003 00
212300 3304N 07646W 6967 03014 9908 +088 +011 124073 074 053 003 00
212330 3304N 07649W 6964 03019 9911 +085 +011 123074 074 053 004 00
212400 3304N 07651W 6966 03018 9900 +095 +008 122076 076 053 003 00
212430 3305N 07654W 6963 03019 9899 +094 +006 122078 079 054 002 00
212500 3305N 07657W 6967 03014 9895 +095 +005 117075 076 053 006 00
212530 3306N 07700W 6962 03019 9894 +096 +005 114074 075 052 004 00
212600 3306N 07703W 6964 03017 9897 +095 +005 112073 076 051 004 00
212630 3306N 07705W 6963 03015 9896 +095 +006 111072 072 049 005 00
212700 3307N 07708W 6965 03015 9892 +099 +006 112070 072 050 004 00
212730 3307N 07711W 6961 03020 9892 +098 +007 111071 071 051 004 00
212800 3307N 07714W 6968 03008 9908 +084 +009 109071 072 053 007 00
212830 3308N 07716W 6965 03011 9913 +078 +009 109071 073 056 012 00
$$
;

[Hogweed]

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 26th day of the month at 21:17Z
Corrected: This observation corrected a previous observation.
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 308)
Storm Number & Year: 09L in 2011
Storm Name: Irene (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 29
Observation Number: 04
A. Time of Center Fix: 26th day of the month at 20:38:40Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 31°36'N 77°19'W (31.6N 77.3167W)
B. Center Fix Location: 177 miles (284 km) to the ESE (118°) from Charleston, SC, USA.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 2,665m (8,743ft) at 700mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 65kts (~ 74.8mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 56 nautical miles (64 statute miles) to the WSW (240°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 331° at 77kts (From the NNW at ~ 88.6mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 79 nautical miles (91 statute miles) to the SW/WSW (236°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 950mb (28.05 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 11°C (52°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,048m (10,000ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 15°C (59°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,053m (10,016ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 2°C (36°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 700mb
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mile
Remarks Section - Remarks That Were Decoded...
Maximum Wind Outbound: 91kts (~ 104.7mph) in the northeast quadrant at 20:59:30Z
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 91kts (~ 104.7mph) in the northeast quadrant at 20:59:30Z
Maximum Flight Level Temp: 17°C (63°F) which was observed 12 nautical miles (14 statute miles) to the SW (229°) from the flight level center
Remarks Section - Additional Remarks...
INBOUND PK FL WNDS SW QUAD 78 KTS AT 79 NM RADIUS AND SECONDARY PEAK 76 KTS AT 36 NM
ONE INNER EYEWALL FRAGMENT NE QUAD WITHIN 12 NM OF FIX
PEAK WINDS FOUND IN OUTER RAINBAND 34 NM TO THE NE

[tolakram]

Pressure on the way down again and two wind maxima, which might indicate the endless eyewall replacement cycle. Sounds like Ike all over again.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[tolakram]

000
URNT15 KNHC 262138
AF308 2909A IRENE HDOB 20 20110826
212900 3308N 07719W 6961 03020 9917 +075 +008 099071 075 057 014 00
212930 3308N 07722W 6969 03004 9920 +074 +006 107066 068 055 014 00
213000 3309N 07725W 6962 03014 9916 +078 +005 108064 066 056 013 00
213030 3309N 07728W 6962 03020 9922 +075 +003 105068 069 056 013 00
213100 3309N 07730W 6963 03017 9920 +075 +003 095070 073 058 020 00
213130 3310N 07733W 6967 03017 9926 +074 +002 094068 073 058 020 00
213200 3310N 07736W 6961 03027 9925 +075 +002 094068 069 059 018 00
213230 3310N 07739W 6968 03016 9927 +075 +003 089072 073 060 018 00
213300 3311N 07742W 6963 03021 9932 +074 +003 088069 072 058 019 03
213330 3311N 07744W 6965 03021 9931 +075 +003 088062 063 058 019 00
213400 3311N 07747W 6966 03024 9930 +075 +004 083069 073 058 019 00
213430 3312N 07750W 6974 03013 9937 +073 +004 080069 072 058 014 00
213500 3312N 07752W 6960 03029 9929 +079 +004 075065 066 058 013 00
213530 3312N 07755W 6969 03028 9933 +078 +003 075065 065 057 013 00
213600 3313N 07758W 6965 03031 9932 +081 +003 073065 066 057 012 00
213630 3313N 07800W 6966 03031 9931 +085 +003 074062 064 057 009 00
213700 3313N 07803W 6967 03034 9926 +091 +003 073060 061 057 007 00
213730 3314N 07806W 6964 03042 9926 +094 +003 069059 059 056 006 00
213800 3314N 07808W 6963 03045 9926 +096 +004 069060 060 056 004 00
213830 3314N 07811W 6967 03044 9933 +093 +006 069062 063 056 005 00
$$
;

[Jevo]

18z GFS +12



12z GFS +18

[WeatherGuesser]

Says Chad Meyers on CNN.......


TS Force Windfield larger than Katrina or Andrew?

Total storm diameter larger than Europe?

True?

[Recurve]

I am very glad to see some mod removed the last ridiculous post.

Here is the latest IKE analysis: It shows surge/waves damage potential of 5.0 on a scale of 0-6.

ftp://ftp.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/pub/hwind/2011/AL092011/0826/1930/AL092011_0826_1930_contour08.png

Besides the eyewall, there is a bubble of high winds to the right of the center.

[Jevo]

18z GFS +24



18z GFS +30