ATL: IRENE - Remnants - Discussion

[Dave]

000
URNT15 KNHC 262258
AF308 2909A IRENE HDOB 28 20110826
224900 3100N 07603W 6963 03009 9885 +094 +041 222087 088 052 004 00
224930 3059N 07601W 6969 03004 9892 +091 +039 224086 086 050 005 00
225000 3057N 07600W 6967 03012 9898 +091 +038 225086 087 050 004 00
225030 3056N 07558W 6963 03020 9921 +077 +036 224084 085 050 005 00
225100 3055N 07557W 6967 03019 9909 +088 +036 227082 083 054 010 00
225130 3054N 07555W 6962 03031 9910 +092 +035 227084 084 054 008 00
225200 3053N 07554W 6967 03030 9926 +082 +033 228084 085 057 009 00
225230 3052N 07552W 6965 03035 9932 +080 +032 228081 082 053 009 00
225300 3051N 07551W 6967 03032 9938 +078 +030 230081 081 053 008 00
225330 3049N 07549W 6968 03035 9935 +084 +029 227076 078 053 008 00
225400 3048N 07548W 6963 03044 9950 +074 +028 227075 075 051 011 00
225430 3047N 07546W 6964 03045 9947 +080 +028 225079 080 050 010 00
225500 3046N 07545W 6967 03047 9942 +088 +029 222077 079 050 008 00
225530 3045N 07543W 6963 03053 9949 +085 +029 222077 078 052 009 00
225600 3044N 07542W 6963 03054 9960 +078 +029 222075 078 054 012 00
225630 3043N 07541W 6971 03045 9976 +068 +030 225078 081 054 011 00
225700 3041N 07539W 6965 03063 9979 +068 +031 221081 082 053 011 00
225730 3040N 07538W 6965 03064 9962 +084 +032 221075 079 053 005 00
225800 3039N 07536W 6961 03069 9962 +088 +032 220073 075 053 003 00
225830 3038N 07535W 6967 03065 9973 +081 +032 222073 075 051 004 00
$$
;




723
URNT15 KNHC 262308
AF308 2909A IRENE HDOB 29 20110826
225900 3037N 07534W 6966 03070 9978 +079 +032 221072 072 051 003 00
225930 3036N 07532W 6963 03080 9975 +085 +032 221073 074 051 002 00
230000 3035N 07531W 6962 03085 9976 +087 +032 220073 073 050 001 00
230030 3034N 07529W 6966 03080 9980 +087 +031 221073 073 050 001 00
230100 3033N 07527W 6955 03102 9993 +084 +034 219073 074 /// /// 03
230130 3034N 07526W 6967 03089 9993 +085 +038 217072 073 /// /// 03
230200 3036N 07526W 6969 03078 9981 +085 +043 217071 071 048 000 03
230230 3037N 07528W 6963 03078 9978 +085 +046 217071 071 047 002 03
230300 3039N 07529W 6961 03080 9977 +082 +049 215072 073 049 002 03
230330 3041N 07529W 6965 03075 9971 +085 +048 215071 071 050 003 00
230400 3044N 07529W 6964 03070 9971 +082 +046 215072 072 052 002 00
230430 3046N 07528W 6966 03066 9966 +084 +043 214072 073 054 003 00
230500 3048N 07528W 6965 03067 9960 +087 +041 211073 074 055 002 00
230530 3051N 07528W 6968 03058 9960 +085 +040 210075 076 053 003 00
230600 3053N 07528W 6965 03061 9956 +087 +040 208077 078 052 003 00
230630 3055N 07528W 6970 03051 9970 +073 +039 209079 080 052 007 00
230700 3058N 07528W 6959 03070 9964 +077 +038 213078 084 053 009 00
230730 3100N 07528W 6963 03056 9944 +090 +037 212077 079 053 007 00
230800 3102N 07527W 6967 03045 9946 +087 +037 212081 082 053 007 00
230830 3105N 07527W 6970 03046 9955 +079 +037 210080 081 054 006 00
$$
;


Will pickup #28 in a second got caught up on the phone...

[JusLimin]

At what point during a storm's passing does the surge typically arrive? In front of it? With the center? Only with high tide?

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT15 KWBC 262306
NOAA2 3009A IRENE HDOB 19 20110826
225630 3315N 07836W 7521 02412 9919 +148 +114 029069 070 050 008 00
225700 3314N 07839W 7519 02416 9926 +142 +113 033071 072 050 009 00
225730 3312N 07841W 7519 02415 9936 +132 +112 031072 073 050 008 00
225800 3311N 07844W 7518 02418 9938 +131 +112 028072 073 050 008 00
225830 3310N 07846W 7518 02417 9941 +129 +119 027071 072 051 006 00
225900 3308N 07849W 7518 02423 9939 +134 +120 026072 072 051 006 00
225930 3307N 07851W 7518 02425 9947 +128 +122 024071 071 050 006 00
230000 3306N 07854W 7520 02423 9949 +127 +125 023071 071 050 007 00
230030 3304N 07857W 7520 02424 9950 +128 +120 022072 073 050 006 00
230100 3303N 07859W 7519 02427 9953 +125 +126 023070 070 050 006 03
230130 3301N 07901W 7523 02421 9947 +131 +121 022072 075 /// /// 03
230200 3259N 07901W 7519 02424 9946 +131 +120 019073 073 /// /// 03
230230 3257N 07900W 7521 02416 9941 +131 +119 018074 076 049 007 03
230300 3256N 07857W 7520 02416 9937 +132 +120 017074 075 050 008 00
230330 3255N 07855W 7522 02408 9931 +134 +115 016072 073 050 009 00
230400 3254N 07853W 7522 02406 9924 +136 +118 015070 071 050 008 00
230430 3253N 07851W 7522 02402 9914 +143 +115 011070 070 051 010 00
230500 3252N 07849W 7522 02397 9911 +142 +115 010072 073 052 011 00
230530 3251N 07847W 7517 02400 9916 +131 +124 016073 075 053 013 00
230600 3249N 07845W 7502 02412 9905 +135 +140 025073 075 053 012 00

[Hogweed]

And now cue the "east of track" comments. Seriously though still on pretty much the projected NHC track which hasn't really varied much give or take "noise" or "wobbles"



Uploaded with ImageShack.us

[DABHou]

This guy is streaming live from Cape Hatteras

http://www.ustream.tv/channel/chasercam-live

He just missed getting hit by a large wave

[ozonepete]

I'm not sure 1 mb pressure drop constitutes a sign that appreciable intensification is underway -- heck 1 mb may be within the margin of error (or 90% confidence interval) of the pressure observations. However, it could be a sign that weakening has stopped, but we'll need another center fix or two to know for sure.

The latest surface wind speed analysis from HRD is available at ftp://ftp.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/pub/hwind/2011/AL092011/0826/1930/AL092011_0826_1930_contour02.png. From that analysis, there are no hurricane force winds in the southwest quadrant of the storm. The winds in the northwest quad peak just above Cat 1 threshold, and the winds in the NE and SE quadrants are a little more solid Cat 1. Note that the analysis shows a peak wind of 77 kts to the east of the center; there are no Cat 2 winds in that analysis (based on Doppler radar aboard aircraft recon as well as in-situ and dropsonde observations).

A rather lengthy arc of dry air is seen entraining into the core of Irene on satellite imagery from this afternoon, indicating that Irene has wrapped up some drier air that lies to its southwest through north. Sfc obs don't reveal this dry air, but tropopspheric soundings from some locations in the southeastern U.S. reveal very dry mid-levels. For example, the GSO and RNK soundings sampled <10% relative humidity (RH) in the 550-300 mb layer several hours ago (1800 UTC). KFFC (Atlanta area) was a little more moist, but still showed RH <30% in the middle of the troposphere. Measured precipitable water (PW) at FFC and RNK were <1.40". Current UW CIMSS wind shear analysis continues to show 10-20 kts of deep-tropospheric shear over most of Irene. The combination of moderate vertical wind shear, dry air, and a rather messy inner core does not suggest that appreciable intensification is likely. That doesn't mean it's not possible -- it's just not likely. Thus, the NHC has toned down the forecast max wind speeds.

I'll reiterate that this should NOT mean that you should let your guard down. Do NOT let your guard down. If the local authorities tell you to evacuate, you should follow their orders. There is still the possibility that Irene could pulse back up in intensity tonight, and it could get back into a more solid Cat 2 range before the NC landfall or close call. This doesn't seem very likely considering how disorganized Irene currently is (particularly its inner core) and how very spread out Irene's wind field is. Continue to plan for appreciable flooding potential, and be careful out and about in case trees fall victim to the winds and wet soils!

Hey WxGuy1, thanks VERY much for those numbers. I have been very curious about exactly how much dry air is out there. It's very frustrating to see dry air intrusions that weren't really expected and not have the data that could have let us anticipate it. I guess the big question is how much more dry air will intrude into it. Of major interest is how a system this large responds to that and also to the shear. This one should teach us a lot about how large systems differ from more average ones, especially, and unfortunately, by what the final surface conditions are.

[CronkPSU]

has anyone clarified what this line is and what it means yet?

D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 62kts (~ 71.3mph)

[CrazyC83]

has anyone clarified what this line is and what it means yet?

D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 62kts (~ 71.3mph)

Estimated surface winds in that area were 62 kt. That is why the 108 kt flight-level winds comparison (97 kt normally) probably does not apply. 85 kt seems right.

[Brent]

has anyone clarified what this line is and what it means yet?

D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 62kts (~ 71.3mph)

I always thought it was a visual surface estimate of the winds WHERE THE PLANE is when the VDM is issued. It is not the maximum estimate in the entire storm(because it has never that I've seen in ANY storm been anywhere near the max winds in the advisories)

Correct me if I'm wrong on this...

[Dave]

434
URNT15 KNHC 262318
AF308 2909A IRENE HDOB 30 20110826
230900 3107N 07527W 6963 03050 9938 +090 +037 209081 082 052 006 00
230930 3109N 07527W 6963 03053 9935 +091 +037 206082 083 054 005 00
231000 3112N 07527W 6967 03040 9939 +086 +037 205081 082 054 006 00
231030 3114N 07527W 6964 03044 9939 +083 +037 203082 083 054 009 00
231100 3117N 07527W 6967 03039 9931 +087 +037 203084 085 056 009 00
231130 3119N 07526W 6969 03035 9927 +089 +037 202085 086 055 008 00
231200 3122N 07526W 6963 03038 9934 +081 +037 201084 085 056 008 00
231230 3124N 07526W 6967 03031 9933 +080 +038 199083 084 055 008 00
231300 3126N 07526W 6966 03032 9929 +083 +038 200084 086 056 007 00
231330 3129N 07526W 6966 03032 9929 +081 +038 196080 081 055 006 00
231400 3131N 07526W 6965 03030 9927 +081 +038 194081 082 056 007 00
231430 3134N 07525W 6961 03035 9919 +087 +039 193082 083 055 007 00
231500 3136N 07525W 6963 03030 9918 +085 +039 192083 084 055 008 00
231530 3139N 07525W 6967 03026 9927 +078 +039 191082 083 056 008 00
231600 3141N 07525W 6963 03029 9930 +075 +040 189083 084 055 011 00
231630 3144N 07525W 6967 03022 9928 +075 +040 189086 089 056 011 00
231700 3146N 07525W 6970 03016 9928 +074 +040 187088 090 054 009 00
231730 3149N 07524W 6967 03021 9927 +075 +040 187087 088 056 007 00
231800 3151N 07524W 6963 03020 9922 +077 +040 186088 089 056 007 00
231830 3154N 07524W 6969 03017 9917 +081 +041 187088 088 055 009 00
$$
;

[Nimbus]

Even if Irene did track a little east so the eye stayed over the outer banks the storm surge in North Carolina is going to be enormous with the large wind fields. A small shift in track might make a larger difference up the coast near New York though.

[Hogweed]

has anyone clarified what this line is and what it means yet?

D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 62kts (~ 71.3mph)

Aircraft microwave radio instrument for remotely measuring/estimating windspeeds -not an actual physical wind speed reading.

If you don't understand the ins and outs then go by the NHC issued guidance for current max surface winds. They have reasons for saying what they do even if SFMR readings at a particular time can suggest a lower value. A Pro Met could explain more fully.

[Recurve]

The guy streaming live from Cape Hatteras may make history -- the first Internet stream of a beachfront house being destroyed and everyone in it killed in a hurricane.

Just my opinion of course. House sure looks solid, sitting there on the sand with waves lapping at the sandbags around its wood pilings.

[Dave]

NOAA2

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT15 KWBC 262316
NOAA2 3009A IRENE HDOB 20 20110826
230630 3248N 07842W 7517 02393 9901 +135 //// 025076 077 057 008 01
230700 3247N 07840W 7529 02375 9892 +139 +144 029072 075 057 009 00
230730 3246N 07838W 7517 02382 9887 +139 //// 030072 073 060 008 01
230800 3245N 07836W 7507 02391 9882 +138 //// 030065 069 061 004 01
230830 3244N 07834W 7510 02383 9866 +141 +146 029059 061 062 003 00
230900 3244N 07832W 7508 02380 9868 +145 +129 027062 064 063 002 00
230930 3243N 07830W 7509 02374 9863 +144 +136 028062 063 065 002 00
231000 3242N 07828W 7507 02373 9860 +142 +143 026060 061 064 008 00
231030 3241N 07826W 7506 02371 9852 +143 //// 028064 067 059 009 01
231100 3240N 07824W 7501 02371 9846 +144 //// 034065 066 061 012 01
231130 3239N 07822W 7507 02356 9837 +146 //// 032072 073 061 010 01
231200 3237N 07820W 7511 02346 9828 +148 //// 033068 069 061 008 01
231230 3236N 07818W 7506 02349 9822 +149 //// 041066 068 061 005 01
231300 3235N 07816W 7509 02339 9815 +151 //// 042062 063 061 004 01
231330 3234N 07815W 7508 02334 9807 +152 //// 041066 069 061 004 01
231400 3234N 07813W 7509 02329 9802 +153 //// 042065 067 060 007 01
231430 3233N 07811W 7513 02320 9796 +152 //// 045063 063 060 006 01
231500 3232N 07809W 7510 02318 9793 +151 //// 043061 063 059 007 01
231530 3231N 07807W 7515 02310 9789 +152 //// 039057 059 059 007 01
231600 3230N 07805W 7507 02310 9783 +151 //// 030056 057 055 008 01

[Dave]

[Annie Oakley]

000
URNT12 KNHC 262254
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL092011
A. 26/22:25:10Z
B. 31 deg 56 min N
077 deg 11 min W
C. 700 mb 2672 m
D. 62 kt
E. 308 deg 79 nm
F. 122 deg 79 kt
G. 014 deg 70 nm
H. 950 mb
I. 10 C / 3050 m
J. 15 C / 3050 m
K. 9 C / NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 12345 / 7
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF308 2909A IRENE OB 08
MAX OUTBOUND AND MAX FL WIND 108 KT SE QUAD 22:47:20Z
MAX FL TEMP 15 C 328 / 9 NM FROM FL CNTR
TRIPLE BAND ON RADAR NORTH HALF OF STORM
TEMP ON ITEM INDIA OUTSIDE THE EYE TAKEN ON CROSSTRACK DUE TO RAIN ON INBOUND LEG
MAX SFC WIND SUSPECT SLIGHT RAIN CONTAMINATION
EYE CLOUD FILLED

[MGC]

Remember, the SFMR only looks at the sea surface directly under the plane...so, it is sampleing a very small area of the hurricane. Results depend on how much foam the wind produces on the water.

Looks to me that the hurricane is injesting some dry air. Just talked with my sons and they are hunkered down in Chesapeake Va. Hopefully this weakening trend continues....but, it looks like some colder cloud tops are evident in the last IR frame......MGC

[Dave]

NOAA 2

[Dave]

941
URNT15 KNHC 262328
AF308 2909A IRENE HDOB 31 20110826
231900 3156N 07524W 6967 03017 9920 +077 +041 185092 093 056 009 00
231930 3159N 07524W 6966 03019 9919 +079 +041 185092 094 056 008 00
232000 3201N 07524W 6965 03021 9924 +074 +041 181090 091 056 008 00
232030 3204N 07523W 6966 03022 9930 +070 +041 179089 091 057 006 00
232100 3206N 07523W 6965 03019 9916 +081 +041 179085 086 057 004 00
232130 3209N 07523W 6966 03019 9896 +099 +042 178086 087 057 003 00
232200 3211N 07523W 6965 03022 9901 +096 +043 179085 086 057 004 00
232230 3214N 07523W 6964 03025 9908 +090 +045 178084 084 057 003 00
232300 3216N 07523W 6967 03020 9919 +083 +046 175083 084 058 003 00
232330 3219N 07523W 6963 03029 9907 +093 +046 171082 083 058 003 00
232400 3221N 07522W 6968 03023 9907 +094 +046 171084 086 057 001 00
232430 3224N 07522W 6965 03030 9909 +094 +046 170085 085 057 001 03
232500 3226N 07522W 6965 03032 9908 +096 +048 169085 087 057 000 03
232530 3229N 07522W 6963 03032 9909 +097 +052 166085 086 055 000 00
232600 3229N 07522W 6963 03032 9907 +099 +055 165084 085 053 002 00
232630 3233N 07522W 6967 03034 9914 +095 +058 164084 085 054 002 00
232700 3236N 07521W 6965 03034 9914 +094 +060 162084 084 052 003 00
232730 3238N 07521W 6966 03033 9915 +096 +062 161082 082 052 002 00
232800 3241N 07521W 6963 03039 9913 +097 +063 161082 083 051 000 03
232830 3243N 07521W 6965 03041 9920 +095 +064 160083 084 052 002 00
$$
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