ATL: IRENE - Remnants - Discussion

[Dave]

661
URNT15 KNHC 270008
AF308 2909A IRENE HDOB 35 20110826
235900 3347N 07538W 6963 03078 9971 +085 +057 138076 076 047 003 00
235930 3346N 07539W 6963 03072 9959 +091 +058 141076 077 047 001 00
000000 3345N 07540W 6967 03066 9955 +093 +057 141078 080 049 002 00
000030 3343N 07541W 6965 03063 9952 +094 +057 141079 079 050 003 00
000100 3342N 07543W 6961 03069 9962 +083 +058 141079 081 051 007 00
000130 3341N 07544W 6960 03069 9954 +087 +058 143080 082 052 007 00
000200 3340N 07545W 6966 03059 9949 +088 +057 144077 077 053 007 00
000230 3339N 07546W 6966 03054 9958 +079 +055 143076 077 051 010 00
000300 3338N 07547W 6966 03053 9956 +079 +054 143073 074 052 009 00
000330 3336N 07548W 6965 03053 9934 +095 +052 141069 070 054 007 00
000400 3335N 07550W 6961 03054 9937 +091 +051 140070 071 055 006 00
000430 3334N 07551W 6971 03040 9939 +086 +052 141071 072 054 009 00
000500 3333N 07552W 6962 03048 9926 +093 +052 142071 071 054 000 03
000530 3332N 07553W 6967 03041 9921 +096 +053 141072 072 053 003 03
000600 3330N 07554W 6963 03042 9923 +092 +056 142072 072 047 000 03
000630 3329N 07555W 6961 03044 9926 +087 +059 143072 072 048 002 00
000700 3328N 07557W 6963 03035 9918 +092 +061 141073 073 050 002 00
000730 3327N 07558W 6967 03032 9907 +098 +062 141073 074 052 002 00
000800 3326N 07559W 6963 03033 9901 +100 +063 139072 072 051 001 03
000830 3324N 07600W 6965 03026 9900 +099 +066 137073 074 053 001 03
$$
;

[ncbird]

At what point during a storm's passing does the surge typically arrive? In front of it? With the center? Only with high tide?

Storm surge happens when the the eye of the storm makes landfall causing a fast rise in water to move on land.

Storm surge is pushed out ahead of a Hurricane. Ike's Storm Surge was being felt 12+ hours before Ike made landfall.

I thought what was pushed ahead was called Storm Tide and storm surge was what actually happened at land fall

[Annie Oakley]

000
URNT12 KWBC 262343
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 26/2330Z
B. 32 DEG 3 MIN N
77 DEG 5 MIN W
C. NA
D. 63 KT
E. 298 DEG 79 NM
F. 024 DEG 77 KT
G. 299 DEG 94 NM
H. EXTRAP 950 MB
I. 13 C/2446 M
J. 20 C/2451 M
K. 17 C/NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 1345/NA
O. 1/2 NM
P. NOAA2 3009A IRENE OB 13 AL092011
SLP EXTRAP FROM 750 MB

[Dave]

Never have your EX call while your working a recon mission..can get interesting! lol

Anyone want to do graphics for either plane? Your welcome to help out anytime.

Going to Hdobs only for AF 308 - GE isn't updating on time for me.

[Dave]

AF308

[mf_dolphin]

I don't know which is more technically correct but you're both right. What's happening now is just the start.

[Hogweed]

http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/Storm_page ... /wind.html



Uploaded with ImageShack.us

Destructive Potential Rating (0-6) Wind 2.6 ; Surge/Waves 5.0

While the winds may be somewhat lower the storm surge remains at levels capable of causing catastrophic flooding. And Cat 1 winds are no joke anyway.

[Annie Oakley]

Where do you get the graphics? Do you mean the pictures?

Download Google Earth then go to Tropicalatlantic.com they have the satellite files on their site. Will be .kmz files. Click Run on the kmz file and let it load into GE. Then bring GE back up again and pick the satellite you want to use. You'll need an editing program too....such as paint or irfranview (free on the web) to crop the pictures. Also will need a server to put the pictures into and get the url for the picture to place here on the board.

[CrazyC83]

URNT15 KWBC 270006
NOAA2 3009A IRENE HDOB 25 20110826
235630 3112N 07523W 7518 02411 9926 +134 //// 205079 081 056 006 01
235700 3111N 07521W 7516 02423 9934 +132 +137 205077 079 /// /// 03
235730 3113N 07518W 7517 02420 9931 +137 +127 204078 079 /// /// 03
235800 3115N 07517W 7517 02417 9928 +139 +122 201081 081 057 002 00
235830 3118N 07517W 7517 02414 9926 +138 +119 199081 081 057 002 00
235900 3120N 07517W 7517 02413 9924 +136 +129 198080 081 056 005 00
235930 3123N 07517W 7515 02414 9925 +134 +126 200078 080 056 003 00
000000 3126N 07516W 7517 02411 9921 +138 +127 197076 076 059 003 00
000030 3128N 07516W 7514 02411 9919 +136 +133 199077 078 059 003 00
000100 3131N 07516W 7516 02409 9918 +136 +131 197078 078 057 001 00
000130 3134N 07515W 7516 02407 9914 +138 +134 196081 083 057 001 00
000200 3136N 07515W 7513 02408 9913 +136 +140 197081 082 057 002 00
000230 3139N 07515W 7515 02404 9910 +137 +142 195082 082 057 000 00
000300 3142N 07514W 7516 02404 9909 +137 //// 192081 083 056 004 01
000330 3144N 07514W 7517 02400 9907 +138 //// 191082 083 057 002 01
000400 3147N 07514W 7518 02398 9905 +139 //// 189084 085 057 002 01
000430 3150N 07513W 7515 02403 9908 +135 //// 191085 086 056 004 01
000500 3153N 07513W 7515 02401 9906 +135 //// 188082 083 055 006 01
000530 3155N 07513W 7516 02400 9907 +134 //// 187082 084 056 006 01
000600 3158N 07513W 7516 02400 9907 +136 //// 185084 087 055 006 01

[CrazyC83]

Just off the press. Probs are 70/20 (70% chance of tornadoes, 20% of intense tornadoes for those that do not follow severe weather outbreak threads)

SEL9

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 809
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
815 PM EDT FRI AUG 26 2011

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

FAR EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA
COASTAL WATERS

EFFECTIVE THIS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING FROM 815 PM
UNTIL 500 AM EDT.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 0.5 INCH IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 30 STATUTE
MILES EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 40 MILES NORTH NORTHEAST OF CAPE
HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA TO 15 MILES SOUTHWEST OF WILMINGTON NORTH
CAROLINA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 808...

DISCUSSION...DISCRETE SHOWERS AND TSTMS WITH LOW LVL ROTATION
EXPECTED TO PERSIST ALONG ARC OF LOW LVL CONFLUENCE NOW LOCATED OVER
THE NC CSTL WATERS ON NRN FRINGE OF CIRCULATION OF HRCN IRENE. AS
IRENE CONTINUES SLOWLY NWD...THE CONFLUENCE BAND SHOULD GRADUALLY
LIFT NWD...WITH ADDITIONAL WARMING/MOISTENING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER
OCCURRING IN ITS VICINITY. THIS MAY ALLOW THE LOW LVL
CIRCULATIONS...AND THEIR ATTENDANT TORNADO THREAT...TO SPREAD
FARTHER W WITH TIME...IMPACTING THE BARRIER ISLANDS FIRST
AND...LATER THIS EVE/EARLY SAT...FAR ERN PORTIONS OF THE NC CSTL
PLN. GIVEN EXISTING WIND PROFILES...AND THE LIKELIHOOD FOR SOME
STRENGTHENING OF THE LOW LVL WIND FIELD IN WW AREA LATER
TNGT...EXPECT THAT TORNADO RISK WILL INCREASE WITH TIME...ESPECIALLY
OVER FAR ERN AND NERN NC

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 0.5 INCH. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 12035.


...CORFIDI

[Nimbus]

High tide is at 6:30 AM tomorrow in the Morehead area which adds another 3 feet to the surge. That will probably be close to the peak of the coastal surge. Not sure what the delay time is up the rivers but probably the peak will be sometime saturday morning.

[Dave]

589
URNT15 KNHC 270018
AF308 2909A IRENE HDOB 36 20110827
000900 3323N 07601W 6964 03028 9903 +094 +068 137075 075 055 002 00
000930 3322N 07603W 6963 03023 9898 +095 +069 139074 075 055 001 00
001000 3321N 07604W 6963 03022 9894 +095 +071 140078 079 055 000 03
001030 3319N 07605W 6962 03018 9891 +093 +070 141081 082 056 002 00
001100 3318N 07606W 6965 03010 9885 +094 +068 141081 081 053 000 03
001130 3317N 07607W 6965 03005 9881 +094 +067 140084 085 055 000 03
001200 3316N 07608W 6964 03003 9875 +094 +067 137084 084 055 001 03
001230 3315N 07610W 6969 02991 9873 +093 +068 136086 087 055 002 00
001300 3314N 07611W 6964 02992 9865 +096 +068 135090 096 057 000 03
001330 3312N 07612W 6965 02986 9856 +097 +068 133093 096 057 002 00
001400 3311N 07613W 6963 02985 9856 +094 +069 134079 081 057 003 00
001430 3310N 07614W 6967 02974 9849 +095 +070 135074 076 057 002 00
001500 3309N 07615W 6965 02977 9846 +095 +069 137070 071 058 002 00
001530 3307N 07617W 6961 02973 9836 +098 +067 135066 067 057 004 00
001600 3306N 07618W 6967 02961 9822 +107 +066 136064 065 056 004 00
001630 3305N 07619W 6966 02965 9815 +111 +066 133061 061 057 002 00
001700 3304N 07620W 6967 02959 9808 +115 +068 131062 062 057 001 00
001730 3302N 07622W 6963 02961 9803 +113 +071 129063 064 058 003 00
001800 3301N 07623W 6965 02954 9796 +117 +074 129065 066 058 002 00
001830 3300N 07624W 6965 02950 9791 +118 +079 132068 069 059 002 00
$$
;

GE is messing up on me bad tonight...going to work hdobs only for now.

[Hogweed]

Product: NOAA Vortex Message (URNT12 KWBC)
Transmitted: 26th day of the month at 23:43Z
Aircraft: Lockheed WP-3D Orion (Reg. Num. N42RF)
Storm Number: 09
Storm Name: Irene (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 30
Storm Number & Year: 09L in 2011
Observation Number: 13
A. Time of Center Fix: 26th day of the month at 23:30Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 32°3'N 77°5'W (32.05N 77.0833W)
B. Center Fix Location: 177 miles (285 km) to the ESE (107°) from Charleston, SC, USA.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: Not Available
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 63kts (~ 72.5mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 79 nautical miles (91 statute miles) to the WNW (298°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 24° at 77kts (From the NNE at ~ 88.6mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 94 nautical miles (108 statute miles) to the WNW (299°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 950mb (28.05 inHg) - Extrapolated
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 13°C (55°F) at a pressure alt. of 2,446m (8,025ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 20°C (68°F) at a pressure alt. of 2,451m (8,041ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 17°C (63°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: Other - Not surface, 1500ft, 925mb (if vortex is newer than about mid 90's; see note for more), 850mb, 700mb, 500mb, 400mb, 300mb or 200mb
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 1 nautical mile
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 2 nautical miles
Remarks Section:
Sea Level Pressure Extrapolation From: 750mb

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT15 KWBC 270016
NOAA2 3009A IRENE HDOB 26 20110827
000630 3201N 07512W 7514 02402 9909 +135 //// 184087 088 055 002 01
000700 3204N 07512W 7515 02402 9911 +132 //// 179084 085 056 003 01
000730 3206N 07512W 7514 02403 9913 +131 //// 179082 082 056 005 01
000800 3209N 07511W 7518 02398 9911 +133 //// 181085 086 056 004 01
000830 3212N 07511W 7514 02402 9913 +130 //// 178081 083 056 005 01
000900 3214N 07510W 7516 02401 9913 +131 //// 175078 079 057 006 01
000930 3217N 07510W 7516 02402 9913 +133 //// 173082 084 055 005 01
001000 3220N 07510W 7515 02402 9910 +135 +139 174079 080 055 005 00
001030 3222N 07510W 7517 02400 9905 +140 +139 172079 080 056 005 00
001100 3225N 07509W 7516 02402 9908 +138 +136 173079 080 052 004 00
001130 3228N 07509W 7517 02402 9912 +136 +133 173080 080 053 005 00
001200 3230N 07508W 7516 02405 9914 +136 +137 171079 081 054 003 00
001230 3233N 07508W 7517 02406 9916 +135 +139 168083 083 052 004 00
001300 3236N 07508W 7517 02407 9917 +135 +140 170082 083 053 006 00
001330 3238N 07508W 7517 02411 9921 +134 //// 168081 081 054 006 01
001400 3241N 07507W 7517 02411 9922 +133 +138 166082 082 053 005 00
001430 3244N 07507W 7516 02413 9925 +134 +136 163082 082 053 004 00
001500 3246N 07507W 7517 02412 9925 +134 +135 161082 082 053 006 00
001530 3249N 07506W 7516 02416 9929 +133 +123 157083 083 052 002 00
001600 3252N 07506W 7517 02416 9927 +137 +124 159081 082 052 004 00

[Annie Oakley]

Wow! I don't have that capability but I bet someone else does......sorry!
Dave I don't know how you do it..you are smooth ha ha!

[Dave]

970
URNT15 KNHC 270028
AF308 2909A IRENE HDOB 37 20110827
001900 3258N 07626W 6960 02950 9787 +116 +082 133069 070 060 001 00
001930 3257N 07627W 6969 02935 9780 +115 +084 131071 071 061 003 03
002000 3256N 07628W 6966 02934 9777 +112 +087 130071 072 061 001 03
002030 3254N 07629W 6965 02925 9771 +112 +089 128074 075 061 001 03
002100 3253N 07631W 6963 02924 9762 +115 +091 129075 076 062 001 00
002130 3252N 07632W 6967 02911 9757 +112 +091 128076 076 060 004 00
002200 3250N 07633W 6960 02911 9755 +106 +090 127076 077 061 011 00
002230 3249N 07634W 6965 02898 9760 +094 +087 123075 077 064 022 00
002300 3248N 07636W 6967 02888 9756 +090 +082 120077 079 066 020 00
002330 3246N 07637W 6952 02898 9743 +096 +079 125067 069 068 015 00
002400 3245N 07638W 6967 02871 9728 +102 +078 121064 064 068 017 00
002430 3244N 07640W 6964 02872 9723 +098 +076 121060 063 068 012 00
002500 3242N 07641W 6963 02863 9713 +102 +076 123060 061 066 010 00
002530 3241N 07642W 6967 02851 9703 +105 +077 126061 062 065 011 00
002600 3240N 07643W 6965 02847 9676 +121 +078 129061 061 062 006 00
002630 3238N 07645W 6966 02839 9661 +128 +078 128062 063 061 004 00
002700 3237N 07646W 6963 02834 9656 +125 +079 125063 064 058 009 00
002730 3236N 07647W 6969 02817 9659 +113 +081 124062 063 059 012 00
002800 3234N 07649W 6965 02813 9648 +113 +082 122060 061 057 011 00
002830 3233N 07650W 6968 02804 9644 +109 +083 120061 063 058 014 00
$$
;

[capepoint]

Storm surge is taking it's toll on SE NC beaches. I have seen several pictures of Canal Drive on Carolina Beach completely underwater, and pictures of nothing but the dunes and the ocean (no beach) in Atlantic Beach.

Soundside flooding in Carteret County is getting bad too. Bogue and Core sounds both over docks and seawalls already. Channel Marker Resturant in Atlantic Beach already has sound waves breaking against the building. Morehead City waterfront buildings over the water have water to the bottom of the buildings. US70 and NC12 east of Beaufort has water to the edge of the road in places.

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT15 KWBC 270026
NOAA2 3009A IRENE HDOB 27 20110827
001630 3254N 07506W 7516 02419 9928 +140 +123 161080 080 050 003 00
001700 3257N 07505W 7518 02417 9933 +134 +133 159082 083 049 005 00
001730 3259N 07505W 7517 02422 9935 +136 +123 160081 082 049 002 00
001800 3302N 07505W 7516 02427 9940 +134 +124 158081 083 051 004 00
001830 3305N 07504W 7518 02425 9940 +135 +122 159082 083 052 004 00
001900 3307N 07504W 7517 02426 9938 +138 +125 160082 085 /// /// 03
001930 3309N 07507W 7519 02423 9937 +137 +128 155085 086 /// /// 03
002000 3309N 07509W 7514 02425 9934 +134 //// 155081 084 052 012 01
002030 3309N 07512W 7517 02418 9929 +138 +129 151079 080 050 003 00
002100 3308N 07514W 7517 02416 9929 +135 +124 151079 080 050 002 00
002130 3308N 07516W 7518 02412 9927 +134 +127 152081 081 050 002 00
002200 3307N 07519W 7517 02411 9923 +135 +128 153082 083 051 002 00
002230 3307N 07521W 7517 02407 9919 +135 +131 152083 085 052 004 00
002300 3306N 07523W 7516 02405 9914 +136 +133 152084 085 052 004 00
002330 3305N 07525W 7516 02402 9909 +136 +135 153081 081 053 004 00
002400 3304N 07527W 7518 02394 9904 +136 +135 151080 080 050 006 00
002430 3303N 07529W 7518 02390 9898 +137 +139 150079 080 051 006 00
002500 3302N 07531W 7518 02388 9894 +138 +139 153070 071 053 002 00
002530 3301N 07532W 7518 02383 9891 +136 +139 152073 073 054 002 00
002600 3300N 07534W 7518 02380 9888 +136 //// 150076 077 054 004 01

[Stephanie]

Storm surge is taking it's toll on SE NC beaches. I have seen several pictures of Canal Drive on Carolina Beach completely underwater, and pictures of nothing but the dunes and the ocean (no beach) in Atlantic Beach.

Soundside flooding in Carteret County is getting bad too. Bogue and Core sounds both over docks and seawalls already. Channel Marker Resturant in Atlantic Beach already has sound waves breaking against the building. Morehead City waterfront buildings over the water have water to the bottom of the buildings. US70 and NC12 east of Beaufort has water to the edge of the road in places.

For all of those still with doubts from VA north, these are observations being made 10+ hours before Irene is forecasted to make LANDFALL.

[Dave]

383
URNT15 KNHC 270038
AF308 2909A IRENE HDOB 38 20110827
002900 3232N 07651W 6965 02799 9624 +119 +084 124059 060 056 013 00
002930 3230N 07652W 6968 02784 9614 +119 +085 121060 061 054 008 00
003000 3229N 07654W 6964 02779 9599 +123 +086 118056 057 052 010 00
003030 3227N 07655W 6964 02767 9581 +129 +088 113057 058 049 007 03
003100 3226N 07656W 6965 02752 9582 +113 +089 109051 055 050 014 00
003130 3224N 07656W 6966 02738 9559 +122 +090 109040 042 048 011 00
003200 3223N 07657W 6968 02729 9526 +144 +092 111036 038 042 004 00
003230 3221N 07658W 6962 02725 9513 +146 +096 117027 031 035 004 03
003300 3219N 07658W 6965 02716 9505 +146 +100 121020 022 026 003 03
003330 3218N 07659W 6965 02709 9494 +150 +105 107010 016 021 001 00
003400 3216N 07700W 6961 02715 9496 +149 +110 002005 006 011 000 03
003430 3214N 07700W 6967 02714 9497 +154 +115 317010 012 011 000 03
003500 3213N 07702W 6967 02718 9498 +156 +119 309017 021 017 002 00
003530 3212N 07703W 6961 02729 9506 +152 +123 310023 025 020 000 00
003600 3210N 07704W 6965 02729 9517 +149 +126 310026 027 022 001 03
003630 3209N 07706W 6967 02735 9523 +149 +127 306028 028 020 002 00
003700 3207N 07707W 6962 02746 9525 +152 +126 308039 045 030 001 03
003730 3206N 07708W 6966 02754 9541 +151 +126 310051 053 039 003 03
003800 3205N 07710W 6958 02776 9556 +148 +126 311051 052 041 002 03
003830 3205N 07711W 6967 02769 9562 +146 +127 309050 051 040 000 03
$$
;