ATL: IRENE - Remnants - Discussion

[mf_dolphin]

I don't know for sure. She's definitely a little right of track so that would extend the landfall a bit but she also may be speeding up. I'm loading up GE to take a closer look.

[Dave]

000
UZNT13 KNHC 270223
XXAA 77027 99326 70755 11625 99986 25610 13579 00627 ///// /////
92559 21803 15600 85292 18402 16603 70944 10637 17590 88999 77999
31313 09608 80213
61616 AF308 2909A IRENE OB 18
62626 MXWNDBND SPL 3270N07549W 0217 MBL WND 15090 AEV 20802 DLM W
ND 16595 985697 WL150 15080 084 REL 3259N07546W 021325 SPG 3269N0
7549W 021739 =
XXBB 77028 99326 70755 11625 00986 25610 11850 18402 22715 13222
33697 10041
21212 00986 13579 11985 13080 22981 15071 33972 15088 44949 15096
55937 15594 66923 15600 77907 16098 88880 16104 99850 16603 11697
17589
31313 09608 80213
61616 AF308 2909A IRENE OB 18
62626 MXWNDBND SPL 3270N07549W 0217 MBL WND 15090 AEV 20802 DLM W
ND 16595 985697 WL150 15080 084 REL 3259N07546W 021325 SPG 3269N0
7549W 021739 =
;

[DisasterMagnet]

I'll come out of the woodwork for a second, although I may have posted something along these lines. Sorry for repeating myself if so. I spend time on another discussion board, a general discussion place with hundreds of East Coasters. The complacency is mind-boggling, and I and several well-informed people have made the point not to take action based on someone's opinion (especially my own!).
It seems there is a whole "tough guy" mentality, statements comparing Irene to a large thunderstorm.

The reports from NC are already sobering.

Not in any way a professional, anything I post is strictly personal observation.
Many thanks to every person involved in keeping this site amazing.

[afswo]

Compared to times of past U.S. hurricane landfalls, this board is unusually quiet. I remember having to hit refresh every 45 seconds or so during storms like Ike, Ivan, and Wilma. I guess it's because most ST2K'ers are from FLA and the other Gulf coast states.

I am one of those who follow normally, but am busy today with my forecasts, impacts, etc. Definitely not a case of not caring. Plus, I agree most S2Kers are probably in your "normal" tropical landfall belts...wait until she makes landfall and watch the board light up.

[UpTheCreek]

I think it's amazing how close landfall will be to that of Isabel. Different angle but I think it'll be close. Perhaps the center won't quite make it to Lookout.

I'm in New Bern, which is up the Neuse River just off the Pamlico Sound. I live up a deepwater creek (hence my userid), and we get storm surge too but it takes a while for it to build up from a coastal storm. I haven't shined my light on my dock in a couple of hours, but it had only risen 18" last I looked. It has been raining steady and we're getting more frequent bands of gusts and hard rain. Only going to get worse from here though. Still have power, still have internet and I still have my Dish Network too!

I feel those of us that are east of this storm are catching a bit of a break from the dry air infusion. Looks like Irene has turned into a completely different animal and hopefully we'll all benefit from that. I will say that one of our local mets (Skip Waters) has lowered his surge level predictions. That's great news, but this storm is still a beast!

There's all kinds of talk already of the media hyping up this storm. I don't think that's altogether true. The storm is changing and I'd rather it by hyped and save lives than it played down. It very well could've been a Cat 4, IMHO.

Capepoint, thanks for sharing that info on the buildings built on docks. I live here and didn't know that, very interesting!

[Janie2006]

We are all here watching.

KatDaddy says it better than I can. Lots of us are indeed watching, waiting, and perhaps posting when we've something useful to add.

[fci]

If you have directv, WCTI 12 out of New Bern NC will be broadcasting live on channel 325 for people out of this area starting at midnight tonight if you want to follow

THANKS!!!
Direct TV has done that in the past and it is a tremendous resource to follow what is happening

[Zarniwoop]

I will never forget IKEs waves crashing over the Galveston seawall under clear skies.

I got hit by Ike dead on, and I was watching the TV coverage the entire day previous to landfall and you're so right. Many hours before landfall under cover of darkness, there were homes on Galveston Island already in terrible danger. It was so terrible in downtown Houston without the surge that I cannot possibly imagine what it must have been like on the island.

If you see water at dangerous levels, or close to damaging levels 6-8 hours before a storm with the tide falling, there's a pretty good bet that its going to get extremely hairy. Ike took Galveston from really dangerous to a catastrophe under cover of darkness when it finally came ashore. And I'm talking SOLELY about the surge.

I'd get the hell away from that coast.

As always, I'm a weather-idiot and don't actually know anything. Rely solely on official channels like the national hurricane center for official news and making your emergency plans.

[mf_dolphin]

I'll come out of the woodwork for a second, although I may have posted something along these lines. Sorry for repeating myself if so. I spend time on another discussion board, a general discussion place with hundreds of East Coasters. The complacency is mind-boggling, and I and several well-informed people have made the point not to take action based on someone's opinion (especially my own!).
It seems there is a whole "tough guy" mentality, statements comparing Irene to a large thunderstorm.

The reports from NC are already sobering.

Not in any way a professional, anything I post is strictly personal observation.
Many thanks to every person involved in keeping this site amazing.

Thanks for coming out and posting. Sometimes I don't understand the decisions even some well informed people make. As Katrina approached we had a Moderator on this board who was going to stay and she lived south of New Orleans. We did everything we knew how to do and I finally got on the phone with her and convinced her and her husband to leave. They lost everything they owned but they survived.

[supercane]

Latest HRD wind analysis:

Latest microwave:

[Dave]

702
URNT15 KNHC 270238
AF308 2909A IRENE HDOB 50 20110827
022900 3236N 07632W 6968 02785 9627 +106 +093 163067 067 057 023 00
022930 3236N 07634W 6962 02781 9613 +106 +094 161064 065 060 020 00
023000 3236N 07636W 6959 02771 9600 +110 +094 160060 065 056 016 03
023030 3235N 07638W 6967 02753 9576 +122 +096 163051 052 052 011 03
023100 3235N 07640W 6966 02748 9548 +140 +097 162049 050 048 008 03
023130 3234N 07642W 6963 02744 9537 +140 +100 162039 041 040 004 00
023200 3234N 07644W 6966 02732 9531 +140 +103 163032 034 028 003 00
023230 3233N 07645W 6966 02729 9523 +143 +106 169028 030 021 002 03
023300 3233N 07647W 6965 02725 9513 +148 +110 164023 026 023 002 03
023330 3232N 07649W 6964 02722 9515 +144 +115 164013 015 021 004 03
023400 3232N 07651W 6966 02720 9512 +145 +119 137003 007 006 001 00
023430 3231N 07653W 6967 02721 9508 +149 +122 342010 013 006 001 00
023500 3231N 07655W 6969 02721 9506 +156 +125 339020 021 010 001 03
023530 3231N 07657W 6961 02738 9506 +159 +128 350023 025 018 002 03
023600 3231N 07659W 6965 02737 9519 +151 +131 000027 029 023 001 03
023630 3232N 07701W 6966 02744 9528 +150 +134 000034 036 027 001 03
023700 3232N 07703W 6966 02753 9535 +153 +135 359040 043 036 003 03
023730 3232N 07705W 6966 02763 9539 +160 +136 000048 049 040 003 00
023800 3233N 07707W 6961 02783 9560 +152 +137 360049 050 038 001 00
023830 3233N 07709W 6966 02785 9576 +146 +138 359051 053 040 001 03
$$
;

[capepoint]

Tornado warning for Onslow County, Hammocks Beach/Swansboro area. radar indicated. NW at 50. another probable waterspout coming ashore.

[Recurve]

For me it that I just went outside and it was calm. I know... but when I track a storm for over 14 days and it come to my neck of the woods I want a little wind.... flame away...

I know what you mean Jabber. But just be patient! You're gonna feel this one I bet.
It was gusty in South Florida and we were 230 miles from the center.

[Over my head]

I'm here, just trying to stay out of the way. Rarely speak anyway ....but I am watching and worrying because I do have family in Northern Virginia. I'm sure there will be lots of wind even where she is according to what I am seeing on this storms size. Probably no power for a while. She is prepared.

[mpic]

I'm flying into Charlotte in the morning and wonder how many people going on to eastern destinations will be spending overnight at the airport or how empty the plane will be. From the airlines websites, cities affected...

Hartford/Springfield, CT ; New Haven, CT ; Washington, DC (Reagan) ; Washington, DC (Dulles) ; Bangor, ME ; Bar Harbor, ME ; Portland, ME ; Presque Isle, ME ; Baltimore, MD ; Salisbury, MD ; Boston, MA ; Martha's Vineyard, MA ; Nantucket, MA ; Manchester, NH ; Newark, NJ ; Albany, NY ; Islip, NY ; New York, NY (JFK) ; New York, NY (Laguardia) ; Newburgh, NY ; White Plains, NY ; Allentown, PA ; Harrisburg, PA ; Philadelphia, PA ; Providence, RI

[Chris_in_Tampa]

[mf_dolphin]

Can anyone explain to me why Irene has consistently had some of her highest winds in the SE Quad? It's been bothering me for days.

[capepoint]

I will never forget IKEs waves crashing over the Galveston seawall under clear skies.

I got hit by Ike dead on, and I was watching the TV coverage the entire day previous to landfall and you're so right. Many hours before landfall under cover of darkness, there were homes on Galveston Island already in terrible danger. It was so terrible in downtown Houston without the surge that I cannot possibly imagine what it must have been like on the island.

If you see water at dangerous levels, or close to damaging levels 6-8 hours before a storm with the tide falling, there's a pretty good bet that its going to get extremely hairy. Ike took Galveston from really dangerous to a catastrophe under cover of darkness when it finally came ashore. And I'm talking SOLELY about the surge.

I'd get the hell away from that coast.

As always, I'm a weather-idiot and don't actually know anything. Rely solely on official channels like the national hurricane center for official news and making your emergency plans.

I wish everybody would, but that will never happen. Thats why emergency service workers like myself have to stay here during these things.

[BensonTCwatcher]

Just doesn't look like it will make Morehead City with the eye based on radar. Looks east. Just east of Raleigh really not pushing much of the banding this far inland. There must be enough mass in a hurricane to act just like a wheel and encounter some friction. Sort kicking itself away from the curved coastline. Have seen so many storms coming in at this angle do the same thing. . Hopefully it will result in less surge into Morehead and spare the barrier islands the RF winds. Good luck stay safe tonite folks.

[Ptarmigan]

Irene is quite a large hurricane.

Average Size (Based on quadrant of wind extent that is averaged out. Anything before 2011 is from Best Track.
ftp://rammftp.cira.colostate.edu/demari ... k_atlc.txt

Average Wind Extent = NE+SE+SW+NW / 4)

Irene (As of 8/26/2011 2000 EST)
Hurricane 65 nm
Tropical Storm 197.5 nm

Ike
Best Track (9/13/2008 0600 UTC)
Hurricane 75 nm
Tropical Storm 168.75 nm

Advisory (9/13/2008 0300 UTC)
Hurricane 82.5 nm
Tropical Storm 190 nm

Katrina
Best Track (8/29/2005 1200 UTC)
Hurricane 75 nm
Tropical Storm 162.5 nm

Advisory (8/29/2005 1500 UTC)
Hurricane 85 nm
Tropical Storm 162.5 nm

Gilbert
Best Track (9/16/1988 1200 UTC)
Hurricane 112.5 nm
Tropical Storm 225 nm