Interesting thoughts on 94L from Houston NWSFO

[Portastorm]

From NWS in Houston, afternoon forecast discussion:

MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IS THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE NEAR THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA WHICH IS MOVING NW OUT INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO.
UNFORTUNATELY AT THIS POINT THERE ARE MORE UNKNOWNS THAN KNOWNS
WHICH MAKE FORECASTING SENSIBLE WEATHER DETAILS DURING THE SUN/MON
TIME FRAME REALLY CHALLENGING. GFS AND ETA DEVELOP WEAK LOW PRESSURE
IN THE GULF AND MOVE THE LOW QUICKLY TO THE SW LA COAST TOMORROW
EVE/NIGHT. THINK THIS IS PROBABLY TOO FAST AND TOO FAR NORTH.
ECMWF...NOGAPS...AND TROPICAL MODELS RUN EARLIER TODAY (BAM AND
LBAR) SHOW THAT A LOW COULD DEVELOP NW OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND
MOVE TOWARD THE MID/LOWER TX COAST. THEN THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY
THAT NOTHING SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPS AND THE WAVE AXIS MOVES ONSHORE
LATE THIS WEEKEND. THINK THAT ONCE SHEAR OVER THE WESTERN GULF
SHIFTS WEST TOMORROW...WE MAY SEE DEVELOPMENT IN THE WESTERN GULF
WITH A NW MOVEMENT. SO...ALONG THE TX COAST...WE WILL NEED TO WATCH
THE DISTURBANCE CLOSELY AND ADJUST THE FORECAST IF NECESSARY.

[Guest]

Like their typical statement - IF - BUT or AND.....

At least they do say it needs to be watched.

Patricia

[southerngale]

Very Interesting Indeed!!

[Portastorm]

I dunno. IR and visible satellite loops like to me like there is two distinct "swirls". One north of the Yucatan Peninsula in open water that WxMan57 has pointed out so well on his posting ... and one now crossing the northern part of the Yucatan Peninsula itself.

Which one will be dominant and maybe force a center? I guess that's an answer we'll all be looking for in the next 24hrs.

[Anonymous]

Lets face it they do not know at this time either. We will just have to watch and wait till it becomes more clear and the system establishes itself if it does at all.

[PTrackerLA]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
335 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2003

.OVERVIEW...POPCORN TYPE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING
AND MOVING TO THE NORTH NORTHWEST ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND
LOUISIANA THIS AFTN. THIS HAS DEVELOPED AS A RESULT OF TROPICAL
MOISTURE STREAMING OUT OF THE GULF COMBINED WITH A WEAKNESS IN THE
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN ACRS THE AREA. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO END DURING THE EVENING HOURS.

.SHORT TERM...GULF MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO AGAIN STREAM OUT OF THE
GULF TMRW...THIS COMBINED WITH A WEAKNESS ALOFT WILL SET THE STAGE
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. IN ADDITION...A LARGE CLOUD MASS IN
THE GULF OFF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE GULF
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS AREA OF WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
TOWARDS THE NORTHWEST AND ONSHORE BY LATE SUNDAY MORNING AROUND
SOUTH CENTRAL LA. THIS WILL BRING PERIODS OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA WITH LESSER AMOUNTS
OF RAINFALL OVER TOWARDS SOUTHEAST TEXAS. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD
TO 4 TO 6 FEET WITH WINDS AROUND 20 TO 25 KTS ON SUNDAY.

.EXTENDED...THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO HELP DRAG A WEAK
COOL FRONT THAT WILL MOVE DOWN INTO THE AREA THRU LFT MONDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS IS NOT EXPECTED TO COOL TEMPS DOWN BUT ONLY TO DRY
THINGS OUT ON TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...AS DRIER AIR FROM THE NW
MOVES DOWN INTO THE REGION.

They don't sound to confident that this will even develop.