ATL: IRENE - Remnants - Discussion

[Chacor]

Irene now has some international impact... counting of overseas votes for Singapore's presidential election is expected to be delayed because the votes cast in New York can't be flown out of the city in time for the original scheduled counting.

[WxGuy1]

The unexpected left-of-track motion means that Irene will spend more time over land before emerging off the far southeastern VA coast (or maybe nearer the NC/VA coast if it resumes a bit more east-of-N/NNE track) en route to NJ and other northeastern U.S. states. As we know, a center over land is not conducive to intensification, and it typically results in weakening. It stands to reason, then, that more time over land will result in more weakening that previously anticipated. We don't really know that much about how quickly storms can/do weaken over land, and it's not THAT far from the water now, so I wouldn't expect it to fall apart completely. Once it gets off the NJ coast, it will no longer have much access to very warm, hurricane-supporting water temperatures; current buoy measurements show water temperatures <25 C from NJ northward.

In addition, I suspect that part of the reason why the response now is different from the response from Gloria is because (a) there are hungry lawyers around, (b) there are other politicians and political groups just waiting to jump on any public official who makes any mistake that results in unnecessary injury, destruction, or death, (c) just because a response happened in the past doesn't mean that it was the best course of action and that it should be repeated exactly next time when a similar-but-different situation occurs. In the realm of public safety, it's almost always better to be safe than sorry. I saw "almost always" because there are times when over-warning or exaggeration of threats can leads to increased complacency and inaction the next time a similar forecast is made if the original event did not live up to expectations (think of the "cry wolf" situation). We hear about over-warning and personal irresponsibility a lot in the more hurricane-prone areas when it comes to the excuses people give for not following safety protocol ("We get these all the time, and it's never this bad. Come emergency rescue me now!").

[Dave]

[summersquall]

Has the center of circulation taken a healthy jog to the west?
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-rb.html
(apologies for not being able to post the loop)

[WilmingtonSandbar]

Since I lost power it is time to change my Sig! LOL

[WeatherLovingDoc]

based on the water rise in the pamlico and albemarle sounds, how much potential is there for overwash from the west on the outer banks when the wind cranks out of the west later on?

Those sounds fill with water up the bay opening, then based on the tides and winds, wash back over to the East or west. In the narrow upper most OBX areas of Duck, Corolla, etc, route 12 is often breached and the homes between the sound and route 12 get both ocean and sound wind and rain (i.e., both ways). I've spent much time in that area.

With Irene, it's the western side of the sound area which appears at great risk for flooding, as much of the heaviest rain bands in Irene are on the West. Combine that with the sound water surge and you have trouble.

Disclaimer: Listen to NHC and local experts, as while I listen to them too, I am not one.

[Airboy]

On the radar it looks like a wall have just "closed" around the eye?. Looks better than a few hours ago anyway.

[Dave]

642
URNT15 KNHC 271640
AF303 3309A IRENE HDOB 14 20110827
163100 3517N 07619W 7236 02390 9517 +143 //// 178039 047 /// /// 05
163130 3517N 07621W 7245 02371 9503 +155 //// 188024 025 /// /// 05
163200 3517N 07623W 7240 02372 9496 +153 //// 187021 021 /// /// 05
163230 3517N 07625W 7245 02366 9496 +156 //// 195017 017 /// /// 05
163300 3517N 07627W 7241 02374 9494 +151 //// 193014 014 /// /// 05
163330 3518N 07629W 7244 02363 9481 +164 //// 199013 014 /// /// 05
163400 3519N 07630W 7237 02361 9473 +165 //// 190010 010 /// /// 05
163430 3520N 07629W 7248 02362 9486 +163 +160 181016 020 /// /// 03
163500 3520N 07627W 7247 02362 9485 +160 //// 188019 020 /// /// 05
163530 3519N 07626W 7240 02370 9495 +155 //// 197019 020 /// /// 05
163600 3517N 07624W 7241 02371 9497 +152 //// 207022 023 /// /// 05
163630 3516N 07623W 7242 02372 //// +150 //// 210027 029 /// /// 05
163700 3515N 07621W 7240 02379 //// +142 //// 219032 035 /// /// 05
163730 3514N 07620W 7240 02381 //// +138 //// 213039 039 /// /// 05
163800 3513N 07618W 7247 02381 //// +132 //// 215050 057 /// /// 05
163830 3511N 07617W 7240 02404 //// +133 //// 218064 065 /// /// 05
163900 3510N 07616W 7238 02415 9554 +140 //// 221066 067 /// /// 05
163930 3509N 07614W 7244 02420 9560 +146 //// 220066 066 /// /// 05
164000 3508N 07613W 7240 02437 9579 +140 //// 220069 070 /// /// 05
164030 3507N 07612W 7240 02447 9591 +140 //// 222069 069 /// /// 05
$$
;

947.3 mb

[BigA]

Recon found an EXTRAP pressure of 947.3 over the western edge of Pamlico Sound. While the actual pressure is probably a few mb higher, this is going to take a LONG time to wind down.

[Solaris]

recon just found 947.3 mb...doesn't feel like it's about to weaken

[Dave]

[ConvergenceZone]

Is NYC out of the crosshairs?

The more it moves inland, the less of a damage danger it would be to NYC. Even the weather channel mentioned that. This of course is due to the inland areas weakening a hurricane much faster than if it went right along the coast where more of the circulation was over the ocean... So far it's more inland this morning than I thought it would be. Since it's only 85 mph now, it should be a tropical storm by the time is reaches NYC, UNLESS of course it starts to hug the coast more.

[Airboy]

Recon found an EXTRAP pressure of 947.3 over the western edge of Pamlico Sound. While the actual pressure is probably a few mb higher, this is going to take a LONG time to wind down.

Yeah, saw that too, pressure going down a bit, not up.

[tolakram]

Looking better and looks to be more NE movement now.

Latest saved radar loop:




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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[BigA]

I haven't seen Irene look this good on radar for a long time. How warm is Pamlico Sound? And yeah, took a solid jog to the NE right there.

I think wobble watching is OK when a storm is over land.

[maxintensity]

That due north motion overnight will be the best thing that happened to NYC or the worst thing. If it can somehow ride offshore, it will be the worst. If that northward motion is the saving grace and its 10 miles inland over the next day, it's the best.

[Dave]

428
URNT15 KNHC 271650
AF303 3309A IRENE HDOB 15 20110827
164100 3505N 07610W 7245 02454 9598 +145 //// 222070 072 /// /// 05
164130 3504N 07609W 7237 02471 9602 +150 +145 224075 075 /// /// 03
164200 3503N 07608W 7244 02471 9605 +158 +135 224076 078 /// /// 03
164230 3502N 07606W 7242 02475 9602 +165 +129 223078 079 /// /// 03
164300 3501N 07605W 7244 02486 9622 +161 +130 219082 084 /// /// 03
164330 3500N 07604W 7235 02507 9636 +154 +135 220083 083 /// /// 03
164400 3459N 07602W 7246 02499 9645 +153 +142 219081 083 /// /// 03
164430 3457N 07601W 7244 02511 9658 +145 +143 219077 078 /// /// 03
164500 3456N 07600W 7241 02518 9666 +144 +142 220075 076 /// /// 03
164530 3455N 07558W 7246 02516 9676 +141 +140 222077 077 /// /// 03
164600 3454N 07557W 7241 02529 9683 +140 +134 223076 077 /// /// 03
164630 3453N 07556W 7237 02538 9688 +140 +136 225076 077 /// /// 03
164700 3452N 07554W 7242 02543 9696 +140 +136 225079 080 /// /// 03
164730 3450N 07553W 7241 02547 9701 +140 +136 227080 080 /// /// 03
164800 3449N 07552W 7239 02555 9711 +137 //// 225078 079 /// /// 05
164830 3448N 07550W 7244 02556 9716 +135 //// 223077 077 /// /// 05
164900 3447N 07549W 7241 02564 9724 +137 +136 222076 077 /// /// 03
164930 3446N 07548W 7241 02569 9733 +133 //// 221076 076 /// /// 05
165000 3444N 07546W 7244 02569 9737 +133 //// 222076 077 /// /// 05
165030 3443N 07545W 7238 02579 9741 +135 +131 222075 077 /// /// 03
$$
;

[Areyoukidding]

The unexpected left-of-track motion means that Irene will spend more time over land before emerging off the far southeastern VA coast (or maybe nearer the NC/VA coast if it resumes a bit more east-of-N/NNE track) en route to NJ and other northeastern U.S. states. As we know, a center over land is not conducive to intensification, and it typically results in weakening. It stands to reason, then, that more time over land will result in more weakening that previously anticipated. We don't really know that much about how quickly storms can/do weaken over land, and it's not THAT far from the water now, so I wouldn't expect it to fall apart completely. Once it gets off the NJ coast, it will no longer have much access to very warm, hurricane-supporting water temperatures; current buoy measurements show water temperatures <25 C from NJ northward.

In addition, I suspect that part of the reason why the response now is different from the response from Gloria is because (a) there are hungry lawyers around, (b) there are other politicians and political groups just waiting to jump on any public official who makes any mistake that results in unnecessary injury, destruction, or death, (c) just because a response happened in the past doesn't mean that it was the best course of action and that it should be repeated exactly next time when a similar-but-different situation occurs. In the realm of public safety, it's almost always better to be safe than sorry. I saw "almost always" because there are times when over-warning or exaggeration of threats can leads to increased complacency and inaction the next time a similar forecast is made if the original event did not live up to expectations (think of the "cry wolf" situation). We hear about over-warning and personal irresponsibility a lot in the more hurricane-prone areas when it comes to the excuses people give for not following safety protocol ("We get these all the time, and it's never this bad. Come emergency rescue me now!").

It looks like Irene is right on track. Wobble watching will always be an issue.

[maxintensity]

Looking better and looks to be more NE movement now.

Latest saved radar loop:

Please keep posting this it helps determine movement a lot

[HurricaneBelle]

I haven't seen Irene look this good on radar for a long time. How warm is Pamlico Sound? And yeah, took a solid jog to the NE right there.

I think wobble watching is OK when a storm is over land.

She's pulling a Fay by becoming better organized over low-lying land near water, with the frictional effects that tighten the core more than offsetting the fact she's inland.