ATL: IRENE - Remnants - Discussion

[Dave]

093
URNT15 KNHC 272025
AF304 3409A IRENE HDOB 02 20110827
201530 3023N 08856W 9841 00202 0068 +298 +238 320012 013 /// /// 03
201600 3022N 08856W 9675 00353 0066 +282 +232 318012 013 /// /// 03
201630 3021N 08854W 9394 00618 0068 +258 +225 309011 013 /// /// 03
201700 3021N 08852W 9103 00903 0080 +234 +217 305010 011 /// /// 03
201730 3021N 08849W 8865 01127 0081 +213 +205 312010 012 /// /// 03
201800 3021N 08847W 8652 01339 0081 +193 +192 316009 011 /// /// 03
201830 3021N 08845W 8454 01540 0083 +177 //// 323009 011 /// /// 05
201900 3021N 08843W 8251 01747 0083 +165 +163 341010 014 /// /// 03
201930 3022N 08841W 8048 01959 0066 +174 +148 351020 022 /// /// 03
202000 3024N 08841W 7806 02218 0055 +169 +135 353020 020 /// /// 03
202030 3025N 08839W 7568 02478 0052 +152 +123 356021 021 /// /// 03
202100 3027N 08838W 7343 02734 0056 +132 +114 354020 020 /// /// 03
202130 3028N 08837W 7127 02985 0054 +118 +105 347020 020 /// /// 03
202200 3029N 08835W 6929 03221 0053 +104 +094 343023 024 /// /// 03
202230 3031N 08834W 6731 03461 0055 +086 +084 347025 025 /// /// 03
202300 3032N 08833W 6540 03699 0057 +071 //// 344022 023 /// /// 05
202330 3033N 08831W 6372 03912 0050 +062 //// 332020 022 /// /// 05
202400 3035N 08830W 6220 04109 0048 +050 //// 328018 020 /// /// 05
202430 3036N 08829W 6062 04319 0050 +036 //// 329022 023 /// /// 05
202500 3038N 08827W 5909 04531 0052 +027 //// 332023 023 /// /// 05
$$
;

[Dave]

000
UZNT13 KNHC 272022
XXAA 77208 99360 70761 11666 99950 25001 21501 00957 ///// /////
92232 24002 24003 85972 21005 27502 88999 77999
31313 09608 81959
51515 10190 70644
61616 AF303 3309A IRENE OB 19
62626 EYE SPL 3598N07611W 2002 MBL WND 25503 AEV 20802 DLM WND 25
003 949724 WL150 30003 084 REL 3598N07611W 195904 SPG 3598N07611W
200211 =
XXBB 77208 99360 70761 11666 00950 25001 11850 21005 22735 17003
33724 15000
21212 00950 21501 11890 24005 22850 27502 33724 03003
31313 09608 81959
51515 10190 70644
61616 AF303 3309A IRENE OB 19
62626 EYE SPL 3598N07611W 2002 MBL WND 25503 AEV 20802 DLM WND 25
003 949724 WL150 30003 084 REL 3598N07611W 195904 SPG 3598N07611W
200211 =
;

[Shoshana]

poor Irene, looks like she's going to be retired

So far "C" storms (9) and "I" storms (8) are the most often retired.

I hope everyone stays safe along Irene's path but I know people online who are *still* posting that Irene is over hyped.

[Dave]

DECODED DROPSONDE OB 19 AF 303

[url]Product: Air Force Temp Drop (Dropsonde) Message (UZNT13 KNHC)
Transmitted: 27th day of the month at 20:22Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 303)
Storm Number: 09
Storm Name: Irene (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 33
Observation Number: 19

Part A...


Date: Near the closest hour of 20Z on the 27th day of the month
Highest Mandatory Level For Which Wind Was Reported: 850mb
Coordinates: 36.0N 76.1W
Location: 24 miles (39 km) to the W (266°) from Kill Devil Hills, NC, USA.
Marsden Square: 116 (About)

Level Geo. Height Air Temp. Dew Point Wind Direction Wind Speed
950mb (28.05 inHg) Sea Level (Surface) 25.0°C (77.0°F) 24.9°C (76.8°F) 215° (from the SW) 1 knots (1 mph)
1000mb -457m (-1499 ft) Other data not available.
925mb 232m (761 ft) 24.0°C (75.2°F) 23.8°C (74.8°F) 240° (from the WSW) 3 knots (3 mph)
850mb 972m (3,189 ft) 21.0°C (69.8°F) 20.5°C (68.9°F) 275° (from the W) 2 knots (2 mph)
700mb 2,644m (8,675 ft) Height extrapolated since sonde was released within 25mbs below this level.

Information About Radiosonde:
- Launch Time: 19:59Z
- About Sonde: A descending radiosonde tracked automatically by satellite navigation with no solar or infrared correction.

Remarks Section...


Dropsonde Location: Dropped in eye.

Splash Location: 35.98N 76.11W
Splash Time: 20:02Z

Release Location: 35.98N 76.11W View map)
Release Time: 19:59:04Z

Splash Location: 35.98N 76.11W (
Splash Time: 20:02:11Z

Mean Boundary Level Wind (mean wind in the lowest 500 geopotential meters of the sounding):
- Wind Direction: 255° (from the WSW)
- Wind Speed: 3 knots (3 mph)

Deep Layer Mean Wind (average wind over the depth of the sounding):
- Wind Direction: 250° (from the WSW)
- Wind Speed: 3 knots (3 mph)
- Depth of Sounding: From 724mb to 949mb

Average Wind Over Lowest Available 150 geopotential meters (gpm) of the sounding:
- Lowest 150m: 159 gpm - 9 gpm (522 geo. feet - 30 geo. feet)
- Wind Direction: 300° (from the WNW)
- Wind Speed: 3 knots (3 mph)

Sounding Software Version: AEV 20802


Part B: Data For Significant Levels...


Significant Temperature And Relative Humidity Levels...
Level Air Temperature Dew Point
950mb (Surface) 25.0°C (77.0°F) 24.9°C (76.8°F)
850mb 21.0°C (69.8°F) 20.5°C (68.9°F)
735mb 17.0°C (62.6°F) 16.7°C (62.1°F)
724mb 15.0°C (59.0°F) 15.0°C (59.0°F)

Significant Wind Levels...
Level Wind Direction Wind Speed
950mb (Surface) 215° (from the SW) 1 knots (1 mph)
890mb 240° (from the WSW) 5 knots (6 mph)
850mb 275° (from the W) 2 knots (2 mph)
724mb 30° (from the NNE) 3 knots (3 mph)


---

[/url]

[Mark]

Irene not looking very healthy on latest IR...looks like shear and dry air

[Jevo]

Irene not looking very healthy on latest IR...looks like shear and dry air

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/avn-l.jpg

Old girl has been over land for 12 hours.. give it a few hours..

[Dave]

AF 303

[Hogweed]

950mb confirmed by dropsonde

Product: Air Force Temp Drop (Dropsonde) Message (UZNT13 KNHC)
Transmitted: 27th day of the month at 20:22Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 303)
Storm Number: 09
Storm Name: Irene (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 33
Observation Number: 19

Part A...

Date: Near the closest hour of 20Z on the 27th day of the month
Highest Mandatory Level For Which Wind Was Reported: 850mb
Coordinates: 36.0N 76.1W
Location: 24 miles (39 km) to the W (266°) from Kill Devil Hills, NC, USA.
Marsden Square: 116 (About)

Level Geo. Height Air Temp. Dew Point Wind Direction Wind Speed
950mb (28.05 inHg) Sea Level (Surface) 25.0°C (77.0°F) 24.9°C (76.8°F) 215° (from the SW) 1 knots (1 mph)
1000mb -457m (-1499 ft) Other data not available.
925mb 232m (761 ft) 24.0°C (75.2°F) 23.8°C (74.8°F) 240° (from the WSW) 3 knots (3 mph)
850mb 972m (3,189 ft) 21.0°C (69.8°F) 20.5°C (68.9°F) 275° (from the W) 2 knots (2 mph)
700mb 2,644m (8,675 ft) Height extrapolated since sonde was released within 25mbs below this level.

Information About Radiosonde:
- Launch Time: 19:59Z
- About Sonde: A descending radiosonde tracked automatically by satellite navigation with no solar or infrared correction.

Remarks Section...

Dropsonde Location: Dropped in eye.

Splash Location: 35.98N 76.11W
Splash Time: 20:02Z

Release Location: 35.98N 76.11W
Release Time: 19:59:04Z

Splash Location: 35.98N 76.11W
Splash Time: 20:02:11Z

[Dave]

000
UZNT13 KNHC 272021
XXAA 77208 99363 70750 11665 99971 24011 10046 00758 ///// /////
92426 22003 13069 85161 19204 13572 88999 77999
31313 09608 81946
51515 10190 70825
61616 AF303 3309A IRENE OB 18
62626 SPL 3633N07502W 1950 MBL WND 12064 AEV 20802 DLM WND 13570
970724 WL150 11056 084 REL 3627N07495W 194621 SPG 3643N07558W 195
014 =
XXBB 77208 99363 70750 11665 00971 24011 11850 19204 22740 15824
33724 15600
21212 00971 10046 11969 10047 22963 11057 33934 12572 44925 13069
55850 13572 66729 14568 77724 16575
31313 09608 81946
51515 10190 70825
61616 AF303 3309A IRENE OB 18
62626 SPL 3633N07502W 1950 MBL WND 12064 AEV 20802 DLM WND 13570
970724 WL150 11056 084 REL 3627N07495W 194621 SPG 3643N07558W 195
014 =
;

[seahawkjd]

I probably missed this being reported on the site but 100 miles from the center a mall in Goldsborro had the roof cave in.



Uploaded with ImageShack.us

[Dave]

000
URNT12 KNHC 272034
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL092011
A. 27/20:03:50Z
B. 36 deg 00 min N
076 deg 07 min W
C. 700 mb 2630 m
D. NA
E. NA
F. 157 deg 73 kt
G. 067 deg 29 nm
H. 950 mb
I. 12 C / 2744 m
J. 16 C / 2744 m
K. 16 C / NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 12345 / 7
O. 0.02 / 2 nm
P. AF303 3309A IRENE OB 17
MAX FL WIND 87 KT E QUAD 19:36:00Z
;

[Dave]

DECODED VDM OB 17 - AF 303

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 27th day of the month at 20:34Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 303)
Storm Number & Year: 09L in 2011
Storm Name: Irene (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 33
Observation Number: 17
A. Time of Center Fix: 27th day of the month at 20:03:50Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 36°00'N 76°07'W (36.N 76.1167W)
B. Center Fix Location: 25 miles (40 km) to the W (266°) from Kill Devil Hills, NC, USA.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 2,630m (8,629ft) at 700mb
D & E. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: Not Available
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 157° at 73kts (From the SSE at ~ 84.0mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 29 nautical miles (33 statute miles) to the ENE (67°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 950mb (28.05 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 12°C (54°F) at a pressure alt. of 2,744m (9,003ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 16°C (61°F) at a pressure alt. of 2,744m (9,003ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 16°C (61°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 700mb
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 2 nautical miles
Remarks Section:
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 87kts (~ 100.1mph) in the east quadrant at 19:36:00Z

[Dave]

210
URNT15 KNHC 272035
AF304 3409A IRENE HDOB 03 20110827
202530 3039N 08826W 5772 04721 0055 +012 //// 332020 021 /// /// 05
202600 3041N 08824W 5642 04905 0059 -001 //// 332018 018 /// /// 05
202630 3042N 08823W 5512 05091 //// -013 //// 339017 018 /// /// 05
202700 3043N 08822W 5375 05289 0254 -025 //// 350017 018 /// /// 05
202730 3045N 08820W 5249 05477 0264 -038 -046 006019 020 /// /// 03
202800 3046N 08818W 5124 05668 0276 -045 -093 009021 022 /// /// 03
202830 3047N 08817W 5021 05833 0290 -045 -155 011021 022 /// /// 03
202900 3048N 08815W 4923 05987 0301 -049 -205 001024 024 /// /// 03
202930 3050N 08813W 4828 06140 0311 -058 -244 002020 021 /// /// 03
203000 3051N 08812W 4747 06274 0320 -068 -275 004018 019 /// /// 03
203030 3052N 08810W 4670 06401 0328 -077 -302 009016 017 /// /// 03
203100 3053N 08809W 4590 06535 0336 -087 -328 011017 017 /// /// 03
203130 3054N 08807W 4511 06668 0341 -098 -352 007018 018 /// /// 03
203200 3056N 08805W 4434 06792 0344 -107 -376 007017 017 /// /// 03
203230 3057N 08804W 4360 06922 0353 -117 -371 014015 015 /// /// 03
203300 3058N 08802W 4295 07038 0360 -127 -348 012013 014 /// /// 03
203330 3059N 08800W 4236 07143 0367 -137 -356 011012 013 /// /// 03
203400 3101N 08759W 4175 07252 0372 -146 -379 009014 014 /// /// 03
203430 3102N 08757W 4116 07360 0378 -153 -392 010014 014 /// /// 03
203500 3103N 08755W 4058 07466 0385 -161 -397 020011 013 /// /// 03
$$

[vbhoutex]

Can Long Island and NYC still expect to see the category 2 storm surge many on this board were predicting?? After all, storm surge is the biggest threat and I heard many here say that even if Irene weakens to a category 1, because of the size there would still be storm surge to the extent of a 5 (on a 0-6 scale).

I don't know the exact answer, but Hurricane Ike was "only a CAT2" but was huge like Irene is with a huge wind field. He brought a lot more surge, to say the least, to the upper TX coast than a normal CAT2 would. We all know what he did to the coast down here. I would expect the surge there to still be worse than one would expect with a weaker hurricane, especially in the bays and inlets as the water tends to be funneled in and piled up in them. As always, your best source for current and accurate information is through your local NWS and the NHC.

[Dave]

000
URNT11 KNHC 272035
97779 20334 70351 76509 48600 29051 02026 /8503
RMK AF303 3309A IRENE OB 20
LAST REPORT
;

Mission 3309A - AF 303 Going Home!

Someone else take over AF 304 for awhile, I need a break! Thanks!

[arkestra]

Irene reminds me of Ike. Low pressure, wide but category relatively low.

[Dave]

Ok someone else take AF304 for awhile if you would. Thanks!

[SNOW_JOKE]

Virginia Beach, Norfolk, Hampton, VA the next major populated area's to face the oncoming surge as Irene's rotation faces onshore in these parts.

[Dave]

Did they drop a sonde, I wonder? 946.8 on the plane...probably closer to 949 on the surface.

Dropped a sonde awhile ago but most of obs have come in on recco's this afternoon.

Ok have af304 in the air now with af303...going to need someone to pick that flight up...as soon as mines over I'm going to break for a little while.

[wxman57]

Can Long Island and NYC still expect to see the category 2 storm surge many on this board were predicting?? After all, storm surge is the biggest threat and I heard many here say that even if Irene weakens to a category 1, because of the size there would still be storm surge to the extent of a 5 (on a 0-6 scale).

The answer is absolutely not. A Cat 1 cannot produce a Cat 2 surge, because storm surge is not a function of SS category. A Cat 1 can produce little or no storm surge or it could produce a 20+ ft storm surge, depending on factors other than the SS category.

People have to stop associating potential surge with the SS category. A hurricane produces a surge based upon its wind field size, NOT the peak wind speed that might occur only over a few square miles (the SS category).

As for the possible surge into NY, see the latest projections on the NHC FTP site:
ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/surge/Latest/

They seem to have taken down the graphics from the 15Z advisory, which I hope means they're about to be updated with the 21Z advisory.

We're expecting about 5-6 ft surge into "The Battery" in addition to the tides being about 3ft above MSL when Irene hits.