Hurricane Fabian a fish storm

[rob8303]

Much to my displeasure, I was hoping that it would not but it is clear that it will, Hurricane Fabian will be a fish storm. Why? Let's begin with this statement from the 11 am discussion:
"Fabian continues to move westward...a little slower... at about 14 knots around the periphery of the subtropical ridge. A high pressure system currently centered just east of the U.S east coast is forecast to move eastward. This would allow Fabian to turn more to west-northwest in the long range." WNW means away from the U.S.
Second, Invest93 will soon experience weakened shear and start to strengthen opening a hole in the ridge for Hurricane Fabian to go poleward. That will happen in 3-4 days in my opinion.
Third, Invest 94 is going to strengthen the ridging in the GOM and this provides yet another factor indicating that there will be no ec threat. Perhaps a brush.
Until these factors start to change, I don't see a EC landfall, but possibly a EC threat.
This is the first time I've made a forecast ever so I might be way off but I base it on posts here on this board and NHC discussions.

[ColdFront77]

A WNW movement of Fabian in the coming days does not move the system away from the United States.

[obxhurricane]

It's hard to say what is going to happen to Fabian beyond day 5 at this point. I do expect a more NW turn in the 4-6 day time frame as the western edge of the Atlantic ridge breaks down. I believe we can be fairly certain of that at this time(there is good model consensus on this happening...and I like a consensus). For me the question is: will the ridge be able to rebuild in time to keep Fabian from escaping into the North Atlantic? If it is able to do so, then Fabian would obviously be a threat to the EC...probably the mid-Atlantic or Carolina coast. But there is just no way to see all the players playing out at this time to make a call.

[Steve H.]

However, until I see evidence that the trough will not as far south as predicted or Fabian will bypass it, I'm inclined to agree with Rob. This should be a classic storm that brushes by the islands and the east coast. The ridge will depart to the east as the trough enters. Kind of a disappointment....But we'll see if anything changes. Cheers!!

[Rainband]

It's hard to say what is going to happen to Fabian beyond day 5 at this point. I do expect a more NW turn in the 4-6 day time frame as the western edge of the Atlantic ridge breaks down. I believe we can be fairly certain of that at this time(there is good model consensus on this happening...and I like a consensus). For me the question is: will the ridge be able to rebuild in time to keep Fabian from escaping into the North Atlantic? If it is able to do so, then Fabian would obviously be a threat to the EC...probably the mid-Atlantic or Carolina coast. But there is just no way to see all the players playing out at this time to make a call.

Hasn't the atlantic ridge been stronger than forecast all year long???

[obxhurricane]

Yes it has. That's why we need to monitor trends very closely during the course of the next few days. My own personal feeling is that Fabian will feel the weakness in the 4-6 day time frame...but that's not to say the ridge can't rebuild itself, or that a blocking high wont meander off the NE coast.

[Rainband]

Yes it has. That's why we need to monitor trends very closely during the course of the next few days. My own personal feeling is that Fabian will feel the weakness in the 4-6 day time frame...but that's not to say the ridge can't rebuild itself, or that a blocking high wont meander off the NE coast.

Yes..It's a guessing game right now...I guess we will know more later. Thanks for your thoughts