All us GOMERS better hunker down we have a Cyclone Alert

[Anonymous]

http://biolante.nmm.nrlmry.navy.mil/atc ... 912003.gif

http://biolante.nmm.nrlmry.navy.mil/atc ... 912003.tcf

Looks like it will be long hours for us this holiday weekend. When you are fighting to buy that last can of spam don't forget the coffee.




Toodles
Lea Anne

[wxman57]

Interesting forward speed in their discussion:

WTNT91 KNGU 290608
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT 290600Z AUG 03//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
180 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 21.0N3 85.0W3 TO 26.0N8 88.0W6
WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IM­
AGERY AT 290608Z5 INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 20.0N2 86.0W4. <b> THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AT 32 KNOTS.</b>

2. A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED 240NM SOUTHEAST OF CUBA IS CENTERED NEAR 20.0N2 86.0W4. THIS SYSTEM IS SHOWING SIGNS OF FORMATION ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, AND HAS BEEN EXHIBITING INCREASED CIRCULATION, CONVECTION, AND WINDSPEED OVER
THE PAST 48 HOURS. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR FAVORS DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM. SYSTEM MOVEMENT FORECAST TO BE NORTHWEST THROUGH NEXT 48 HOURS. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE ANALYZED FROM SATELLITE DATA TO BE 84F(29C).

[Anonymous]

Yes it is. I do believe that could be an error due to the fact that it does not appear to be moving that fast.

[cycloneye]

That must be an error it must be 12kts.

[Tip]

Most recent IR pic shows this system coming together in a hurry. Latest reports from Cancun and Cozumel (sp) indicate that the winds have gone calm after blowing out of the ENE at 15-17kts meaning some sort of center may be near by.

[wxman57]

I seriously doubt that there's any LLC forming yet. Shear is still fairly high in the region. Winds going calm doesn't mean anything. The only way to confirm development of a LLC is by high-res visible satellite. You can't use IR imagery for that. And unless MMCZ and MMCN begin reporting moderate west or southwest winds, I wouldn't think there's anything forming. But, I'm heading off to the office and will have full access to data shortly. I'll post some nice sat pics with all sfc obs plotted later on.

[Tip]

Also towering cumulus clouds are being observed in Cancun.

http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/MMUN.html

[Anonymous]

Here is a pretty picture for you this a.m.
http://www.tnrcc.state.tx.us/updated/ai ... h1.50.jpeg

[Tip]

Don't know what it means but Cozumel went from calm winds to ESE wind at 23 mph in one hour.

[Anonymous]

The local weatherman here said that they were monitoring an area of mlc or possibly an llc formation right around cancun so that would be about right if it actually was getting or has an llc wouldn't it? Opinions welcomed still learning here.

[Tip]

Winds are out the north at Chetumal Mex at 9mph indicating that there is a turing of wind field but no westerly obs yet.

[Anonymous]

Indications are that there is center of circulation developing near 20N, 86W just to the E of Cozumel. The convection has become more concentrated around this area and outflow has started setting up in the N semicircle. Looks like a good possibility of TD #11 later today if these trends continue.

I just read this also from another post here on the board.

[Tip]

Interesting, pressures are actually rising on the eastern side of the Yucatan at Cozumel and Cancun.

[Lindaloo]

ticka, you better get ready for Gracie.

[Guest]

Thanks Lindaloo!!!! Seriously I actually am going to make my checklist of things to day if she heads this way. I did it last year for Lili and I just like to be prepared.

Hopefully everyone will be aware and watching this weekend.

[wrkh99]

Gracie has been renamed Godzilla.

Please make a note of it .

[Guest]

Wrkh99 - you don't like the wimpy names like Fabian - he was a really cool dude in the 1950's!!!!

[stormie_skies]

Good idea Ticka....better safe than sorry

[Anonymous]

I agree on renaming Gracie to Godzilla that it a huge storm.

[Stormsfury]

Anyways, it's Grace ... Gracie was retired in 1959 after hitting South Carolina as a Cat 3.