ATL: IRENE - Remnants - Discussion

[SNOW_JOKE]

THE CENTER OF IRENE HAS BEEN MOVING ACROSS EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA THIS AFTERNOON...AND THE RADAR PRESENTATION OF THE INNER CORE ACTUALLY IMPROVED FOR A FEW HOURS. SINCE THAT TIME...THE RAGGED EYE HAS FILLED IN BUT THE CENTER REMAINS WELL DEFINED ON RADAR...WHICH WARRANTS A RETURN TO TWO-HOURLY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORIES. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT REPORTED PEAK FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 85-90 KT TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS...AND A VERY RECENT CENTER DROP MEASURED A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 950 MB. THERE HAVE NOT BEEN ANY RECENT SFMR DATA...BUT BASED ON THE EARLIER SHARP DISCREPANCY BETWEEN THE FLIGHT-LEVEL AND SURFACE WINDS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS REDUCED TO 70 KT. A SLOW WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AS IRENE MOVES ALONG THE COAST OF THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES DUE TO LAND INTERACTION...COLDER WATERS...DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT...AND INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR. BECAUSE THE LARGE WIND FIELD WILL TAKE TIME TO SPIN DOWN...HOWEVER...IRENE IS STILL EXPECTED TO REACH THE NEW
YORK AREA AT OR NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH.

[tronbunny]

Look how impressive the outflow is a the 200MB level of the atmosphere. Very, very impressive, that outflow extends all the way down into the Caribbean!

We had some long periods of doozy thunderstorms in central Florida when the area was forecast called for lower chances of rain than yesterday. When. I said that it was outflow from Irene, I was dismissed. This satellite photo proves me correct.
Therfore, we cannot dismiss her continued potential despite the slight weakening of winds. This will be bringing lots of rain... how quickly we forget Isabel.

[lilac]

I'm on the south shore of Long Island. The area along the bay normally floods during a normal windy storm and water is up to the docks already. We just took a ride down and are now in our houses just waiting. It's raining here but not very windy yet.

[Zarniwoop]

Ike was a polar bear to Irene's wolverine (so far).

We'll see what happens when she plows into a perpendicular coastline tomorrow.

Disclaimer - I eat paste. Listen to the official channels only for actual weather predictions and information.

[Swimdude]

What worries me most from the 5 pm discussion is that Brown/Franklin mentioned that NY should have a storm near or at hurricane-force strength--so let's estimate that at 70 mph winds.

Then, they mentioned that the winds increase quickly above the surface. So the skyscrapers of NYC will be experiencing winds 20-30% higher than on the surface. That's 85-90 mph winds. Yikes.

[HenkL]

000
URNT15 KNHC 280015
AF304 3409A IRENE HDOB 25 20110828
000530 3738N 07431W 6958 02958 //// +092 //// 148075 076 049 002 01
000600 3739N 07430W 6954 02967 //// +077 //// 147074 077 048 011 01
000630 3740N 07428W 6970 02949 //// +076 //// 145074 079 053 016 01
000700 3741N 07426W 6963 02960 //// +088 //// 152071 077 050 014 01
000730 3742N 07425W 6961 02965 9816 +102 //// 154074 075 047 004 01
000800 3744N 07423W 6958 02971 //// +099 //// 157076 077 048 000 01
000830 3745N 07421W 6956 02978 //// +099 //// 156077 078 047 001 01
000900 3746N 07419W 6958 02983 //// +098 //// 155077 078 048 000 01
000930 3747N 07418W 6957 02982 9831 +100 //// 155075 077 047 000 01
001000 3749N 07416W 6959 02987 9839 +100 //// 156074 075 046 000 01
001030 3750N 07414W 6956 02991 9841 +099 //// 153072 072 045 000 01
001100 3751N 07412W 6963 02984 9848 +097 //// 151073 076 046 000 01
001130 3752N 07411W 6959 02991 9856 +093 //// 149074 075 048 000 01
001200 3754N 07409W 6953 02998 9855 +094 //// 152067 070 048 000 01
001230 3755N 07407W 6954 03004 9856 +095 +093 154067 067 045 001 00
001300 3756N 07405W 6961 02996 9870 +091 +090 155068 069 049 003 03
001330 3756N 07404W 6945 03021 9863 +097 +093 160069 070 /// /// 03
001400 3756N 07402W 6958 03004 9854 +104 +090 158072 074 051 001 00
001430 3755N 07401W 6962 02997 9859 +097 +089 159068 070 052 005 00
001500 3754N 07400W 6959 02999 9857 +100 +094 161067 070 052 000 00


000
URNT12 KNHC 280017 CCA
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL092011
A. 27/23:40:40Z
B. 36 deg 38 min N
075 deg 44 min W
C. 700 mb 2664 m
D. 60 kt
E. 125 deg 86 nm
F. 208 deg 74 kt
G. 123 deg 64 nm
H. 951 mb
I. 11 C / 3056 m
J. 14 C / 3061 m
K. 13 C / NA
L. Open E-S
M. C9
N. 12345 / 7
O. 0.02 / 2 nm
P. AF304 3409A IRENE OB 06 CCA
MAX OUTBOUND AND MAX FL WIND 81 KT NE QUAD 00:04:00Z

[Zarniwoop]

What worries me most from the 5 pm discussion is that Brown/Franklin mentioned that NY should have a storm near or at hurricane-force strength--so let's estimate that at 70 mph winds.

Then, they mentioned that the winds increase quickly above the surface. So the skyscrapers of NYC will be experiencing winds 20-30% higher than on the surface. That's 85-90 mph winds. Yikes.

Houston took slightly higher winds and there was glass everywhere downtown, especially in the higher windows. But, we don't have close to the number of high-rises that they do in the NE.

I wouldn't want to be there tomorrow morning (or even tonight).

[HenkL]

000
UZNT13 KNHC 280019
XXAA 78007 99378 70743 11674 99984 26033 12041 00645 ///// /////
92541 22419 13574 85275 19036 15074 70924 11005 15574 88999 77999
31313 09608 80009
61616 AF304 3409A IRENE OB 10
62626 SPL 3788N07435W 0014 MBL WND 12562 AEV 20802 DLM WND 14571
983696 WL150 12552 083 REL 3780N07428W 000944 SPG 3788N07434W 001
421 =
XXBB 78008 99378 70743 11674 00984 26033 11932 22412 22850 19036
33758 13412 44723 12633 55707 12214 66696 10400
21212 00984 12041 11971 12558 22952 12563 33942 13071 44918 14077
55911 14073 66902 14576 77850 15074 88696 15575
31313 09608 80009
61616 AF304 3409A IRENE OB 10
62626 SPL 3788N07435W 0014 MBL WND 12562 AEV 20802 DLM WND 14571
983696 WL150 12552 083 REL 3780N07428W 000944 SPG 3788N07434W 001
421 =

[AdamFirst]

Where do you all think Irene will landfall next? The track is REALLY close to Maryland/Delaware, but she shouldn't technically make another landfall until New Jersey. Of course we won't talk about the possibility of no other landfall until New York.

I believe it stays offshore until landfall around Brooklyn/Western Long Island.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[otowntiger]

Sudduth just got a 60mph sustained for 45 seconds

where is he at?

[HenkL]

000
URNT15 KNHC 280025
AF304 3409A IRENE HDOB 26 20110828
001530 3753N 07359W 6956 03004 9862 +096 +090 161071 074 053 004 00
001600 3752N 07358W 6955 03009 9874 +087 //// 162070 072 056 002 01
001630 3752N 07356W 6959 03004 9877 +085 //// 160068 069 057 000 01
001700 3751N 07355W 6958 03002 9871 +091 +087 161069 070 054 000 00
001730 3750N 07354W 6957 03009 9870 +095 +083 161073 074 055 000 03
001800 3749N 07353W 6959 03003 9874 +091 +082 161076 077 054 001 00
001830 3748N 07352W 6956 03008 9875 +089 +081 160073 074 054 003 00
001900 3747N 07350W 6963 03001 9877 +089 +084 159070 072 052 002 00
001930 3747N 07349W 6964 02996 9876 +088 //// 160073 076 051 005 01
002000 3746N 07348W 6965 02997 9875 +088 //// 162069 072 050 006 01
002030 3745N 07347W 6948 03019 9875 +085 //// 162071 073 051 001 01
002100 3744N 07346W 6965 02999 9869 +096 +084 163071 071 052 000 00
002130 3743N 07345W 6959 03008 9871 +095 +076 166073 075 052 005 00
002200 3742N 07343W 6955 03013 9868 +095 //// 166069 072 051 004 01
002230 3742N 07342W 6961 03005 9862 +103 +076 167071 072 051 003 00
002300 3741N 07341W 6953 03016 9870 +099 +070 167074 074 049 002 00
002330 3740N 07340W 6960 03009 9870 +099 +072 169073 074 049 001 00
002400 3739N 07339W 6962 03009 9874 +095 +080 168071 073 050 006 00
002430 3738N 07337W 6957 03009 9870 +098 +095 167069 070 050 001 00
002500 3737N 07336W 6957 03017 9875 +098 +082 171072 073 050 002 00

[SNOW_JOKE]

Would the NHC account for structures over 10 stories, or is the forecast outlook/categorisation solely based on ground-based obs? Given the huge number of skyscrapers in NYC and the cities such as Washington, Boston, etc. Would this case be such an exemption, or warrant a seperate watch?

[Hogweed]

Still going up



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[tolakram]

[FrontRunner]

Then, they mentioned that the winds increase quickly above the surface. So the skyscrapers of NYC will be experiencing winds 20-30% higher than on the surface. That's 85-90 mph winds. Yikes.

True, but based on every NHC projected path since early yesterday, Manhattan will be on the western side of the storm, where the surface winds will be weaker. This is supported by those wind profile graphics that have been posted a few times today by people on the board, which have shown only a small area of maximum winds on the eastern side of the circulation. (Sorry, I'm not savvy with the technical terms for these things!)

Irene certainly could track a bit farther west of the projected path, putting Manhattan on the eastern side of the storm, but then if that happens it will be over land for additional time and could weaken more than forecast.

[AdamFirst]

Sudduth just got a 60mph sustained for 45 seconds

where is he at?

Northern Outer Banks - Nags Head, NC

[Swimdude]

Would the NHC account for structures over 10 stories, or is the forecast outlook/categorisation solely based on ground-based obs? Given the huge number of skyscrapers in NYC and the cities such as Washington, Boston, etc. Would this case be such an exemption, or warrant a seperate watch?

My most at the top of this page addresses this. Also, the following is from the 5:00 p.m. discussion:

"Irene is still expected to reach the New
York area at or near hurricane strength.

More so than with most storms...the winds with Irene increase
sharply with height above the surface. As Irene moves through
areas with high-rise structures...these structures will experience
winds significantly stronger than indicated by the advisory
intensity. Winds at the 30-story level will likely be 20 percent
higher than at the surface...and winds 80-100 stories up could be
about 30 percent higher than at the surface."

[Swimdude]

What worries me most from the 5 pm discussion is that Brown/Franklin mentioned that NY should have a storm near or at hurricane-force strength--so let's estimate that at 70 mph winds.

Then, they mentioned that the winds increase quickly above the surface. So the skyscrapers of NYC will be experiencing winds 20-30% higher than on the surface. That's 85-90 mph winds. Yikes.

Houston took slightly higher winds and there was glass everywhere downtown, especially in the higher windows. But, we don't have close to the number of high-rises that they do in the NE.

I wouldn't want to be there tomorrow morning (or even tonight).

I was in West Houston for Ike and it was bad enough there. I remember what downtown looked like... Can't imagine what NYC will look like after this blows through.

[HenkL]

Someone else can take over HDOB.

[FrontRunner]

Where do you all think Irene will landfall next? The track is REALLY close to Maryland/Delaware, but she shouldn't technically make another landfall until New Jersey. Of course we won't talk about the possibility of no other landfall until New York.

The 5 pm projected path has Irene making landfall between Ocean City, NJ and Atlantic City, NJ, followed by another landfall in Queens County (and then going right over JFK). FWIW, since 21z Irene has been tracking slightly east of the forecasted track.