Gulf Homebrew? (Is invest 93L)

[underthwx]

Good evening all...I'm home recovering from sugery Thurs. So I'm here in bed with the laptop. I read the latest Houston forecast diss. They mention a fetch of deep tropical moisture moving in from the Carribean combinig with moisture from the BOC streaming in towards SE Texas beginning Wednesday and extending thru the Labor Day weekend becoming widespread. I'm not sure what that translates into tropically, but the chance for rain sounds good. Please correct me if I'm wrong.

[Dean4Storms]

Good evening all...I'm home recovering from sugery Thurs. So I'm here in bed with the laptop. I read the latest Houston forecast diss. They mention a fetch of deep tropical moisture moving in from the Carribean combinig with moisture from the BOC streaming in towards SE Texas beginning Wednesday and extending thru the Labor Day weekend becoming widespread. I'm not sure what that translates into tropically, but the chance for rain sounds good. Please correct me if I'm wrong.

That is correct, the ridge is expected to start moving east come mid-week.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Think I will wait to see if other models jump on what the last GFS run was showing before getting to concerned. Like stormcenter said the GFS and all others were showing Irene hitting the north gulf coast instead of what it is doing now. But that was in the long range even though the GFS was showing it for 20 some runs in a row. Like Ivanhater said if it does end up forming in the gulf it has to hit somewhere. Being the first week of september could range from Mexico to Florida or anywhere in between depending of what happens with the death ridge.

[HurricaneWarning92]

Good evening all...I'm home recovering from sugery Thurs. So I'm here in bed with the laptop. I read the latest Houston forecast diss. They mention a fetch of deep tropical moisture moving in from the Carribean combinig with moisture from the BOC streaming in towards SE Texas beginning Wednesday and extending thru the Labor Day weekend becoming widespread. I'm not sure what that translates into tropically, but the chance for rain sounds good. Please correct me if I'm wrong.

That is correct, the ridge is expected to start moving east come mid-week.

You mean west.

[GCANE]

GFS is hinting the BOC around Wednesday

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/gfs ... phase2.png

[LaBreeze]

Good evening all...I'm home recovering from sugery Thurs. So I'm here in bed with the laptop. I read the latest Houston forecast diss. They mention a fetch of deep tropical moisture moving in from the Carribean combinig with moisture from the BOC streaming in towards SE Texas beginning Wednesday and extending thru the Labor Day weekend becoming widespread. I'm not sure what that translates into tropically, but the chance for rain sounds good. Please correct me if I'm wrong.

That is correct, the ridge is expected to start moving east come mid-week.

You mean west.

I hope that he meant west. East would not do much good for us depending on how far east it would move. Let's push this unwanted visitor west - time to go buddy, the visit is well over. You have overstayed your welcome.

[SETXPTNeches]

looks fairly weak and broad...track up into the N-E GOM so far from guidance....thought the CMC developes this late and sends it into STex.....might squeeze out some rain for us....

Maybe I can stop doing the "rain dance" - my neighbors can stop looking at me like I am crazy and thank me

[LaBreeze]

looks fairly weak and broad...track up into the N-E GOM so far from guidance....thought the CMC developes this late and sends it into STex.....might squeeze out some rain for us....

Maybe I can stop doing the "rain dance" - my neighbors can stop looking at me like I am crazy and thank me

I hear you on that "rain dance" thing

[NDG]

Whatever forms or doesn't form in the GOM next week seems to head toward S TX and the moisture spread throughout most of TX as the ridge splits in two leaving TX in a weakness and unsettled pattern. Great news for TX if indeed pans out.

[Portastorm]

Weather enthusiasts can be prone to hyperbole, but should this verify ... it really would be a godsend for us!

[Rgv20]

Brownsville NWS Long Term Morning Discussion.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...THE RELATIVELY DRY AIR THAT
WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES AND THE NORTHERN
GULF OF MEXICO MONDAY IS EXPECTED TO RETREAT NORTHWARD TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY AS BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF PROG TROPICAL MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD MID TO UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN SEA MAKES ITS WAY WESTWARD INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. THE
700MB LOW/TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
NORTHWEST TOWARDS NORTHEAST MEXICO AND THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY
WEDNESDAY WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A WEAK SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO. EVEN IF A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
OR WEAK TROPICAL STORM DOES NOT DEVELOP WITH THIS
FEATURE...SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP
ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND MOVE ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TX
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK AS ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE OVER
THE WESTERN GULF LIFTS NORTHWARD ACROSS SOUTH TX AS A LOW LEVEL
INVERTED TROUGH DEVELOPS ACROSS CENTRAL TX TOWARDS THE WEEKEND.
WILL GO AHEAD AND INCREASE RAIN CHANCES WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE REST
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS A RESULT.

[SETXPTNeches]

looks fairly weak and broad...track up into the N-E GOM so far from guidance....thought the CMC developes this late and sends it into STex.....might squeeze out some rain for us....

Maybe I can stop doing the "rain dance" - my neighbors can stop looking at me like I am crazy and thank me

I am 48 yrs old and have never experienced 104 degrees this close to the coast..we usually have at least a little Gulf breeze blowing, but there was absolutely nothing blowing yesterday!!!! I went to Winnie (which is about 15 miles from the beach (High Island) and I could have fried an egg on the pavement!!!! I know that the High has protected us this summer and I guess it is the lesser of two evils, but I would actually prefer some sort of tropical activity right now!!! I think Walmart has sold out of those little baby pools...

[SETXPTNeches]

Everybody chant with me " hey ya hey ya hey ya - rain"

[lonelymike]

FIMY model

How has the FIMY model done compared to the other models this year?

[underthwx]

Brownsville AFD:




FORECAST GETS MORE DIFFICULT TO FINISH THE WORK WEEK AND HEAD INTO
THE WEEKEND. TWO ITEMS TO WATCH...FIRST WILL BE THE EVOLUTION OF
THE SOUTHERN IMPULSE AS IT MOVES INTO MEXICO...MOST LIKELY IN THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF TAMAULIPAS. AS ALWAYS WITH SYSTEMS IN THIS AREA
THIS TIME OF YEAR AND IN THIS PATTERN...WE`LL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR
POTENTIAL WRAPPING UP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE. FOR
NOW...MAINTAINING AN OPEN WAVE SOLUTION WITH DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
SPREADING ACROSS AT LEAST THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE FORECAST
AREA AND PROVIDING THE BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR NUMEROUS SHOWER/STORM
ACTIVITY ON THURSDAY. THAT SAID...STILL UNCERTAINTY IN BEST
LOCATION OF VERTICAL MOTION WHICH THE 12Z GFS AND TO SOME DEGREE
THE 00Z ECMWF BEGIN TO PULL NORTHWARD ALONG AND EAST OF THE COAST
AND ULTIMATELY INTO THE UPPER TEXAS AND LOUISIANA COAST. FOR
NOW...WILL SPREAD A 50/50 RAIN CHANCE FROM EAST TO WEST BEGINNING
IN THE MORNING AND REACHING THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS BY EARLY TO MID
AFTERNOON. HAVE FINESSED TEMPERATURES TO HAVE HIGH TEMPERATURES
AROUND NOON EAST/CENTRAL AND DROP BACK INTO THE 80S WITH RESIDUAL
RAIN AND CLOUDS LATER IN THE AFTERNOON.



at the very least some welcome rains...?



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[CYCLONE MIKE]

From the looks of things most aren't expecting much out of this. Looks weak and Mexico bound. Could be some rain for deep south TX but on the other hand could be a tease just like Don. Eventually the death ridge will break down. On the other hand... temps for us next week were forecast to go down to lower 90's now bumped up and hot and dry again with temps in upper to mid 90's all through next week. Plus so far when they say mid 90's we get to almost 100 every day it seems. Can't think exactly what it was but we shattered a few records for most consecutive days over 95 and something to the extent of the hottest three months of the summer ever down here.

[underthwx]

From the looks of things most aren't expecting much out of this. Looks weak and Mexico bound. Could be some rain for deep south TX but on the other hand could be a tease just like Don. Eventually the death ridge will break down. On the other hand... temps for us next week were forecast to go down to lower 90's now bumped up and hot and dry again with temps in upper to mid 90's all through next week. Plus so far when they say mid 90's we get to almost 100 every day it seems. Can't think exactly what it was but we shattered a few records for most consecutive days over 95 and something to the extent of the hottest three months of the summer ever down here.

CM...you thinkin rain chances still pretty slim?...NWS indicating 40% daily pcp headin into the wknd. for my area, hopefully yours, and everyone in the drought-stricken areas.....

[Tireman4]

I am not a meteorogist, but I would not say no right now....the models are REALLY latching onto this. Really.

quote="CYCLONE MIKE"]From the looks of things most aren't expecting much out of this. Looks weak and Mexico bound. Could be some rain for deep south TX but on the other hand could be a tease just like Don. Eventually the death ridge will break down. On the other hand... temps for us next week were forecast to go down to lower 90's now bumped up and hot and dry again with temps in upper to mid 90's all through next week. Plus so far when they say mid 90's we get to almost 100 every day it seems. Can't think exactly what it was but we shattered a few records for most consecutive days over 95 and something to the extent of the hottest three months of the summer ever down here.[/quote]


Or we could listen to the meteorologists at the NWS...

.
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 329 PM CDT SUN AUG 28 2011/

DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER BEAUTIFUL DAY IN PARADISE WITH RECORD 105+ TEMPS. EXPECT
A SLOW DOWNWARD TREND WITH THE DAYTIME HIGHS AS A MORE DEFINED
ONSHORE FLOW RESUMES IN THE DAYS TO COME. UPPER RIDGE STILL
EXPECTED TO PUSH EAST OF THE REGION TOWARD MIDWEEK. AS THIS OCCURS
A TROF CURRENTLY SITUATED IN THE CARIBBEAN WILL TREK ACROSS THE
YUCATAN AND WNW INTO THE WESTERN GULF. EXPECT A SLUG OF DEEPER
TROPICAL MOISTURE TO BEGIN PUSHING INLAND LATE WED NIGHT INTO
THURS BRINGING A FAIRLY DECENT SHOT OF RAIN TO MOST OF SE TX.
THINK THESE CHANCES WILL CONTINUE DAILY GOING INTO THE WEEKEND
WITH HIGHER MOISTURE LEVELS REMAINING IN PLACE AND THE UPPER
LEVEL TROF/WEAKNESS SOMEWHERE IN THE VICINITY. THE 12Z MODELS ARE
SHOWING CENTER OF THIS FEATURE SITUATED DUE NORTH OF SE TX FRI-SAT
WITH THE TROF AXIS STRETCHING DOWN THE I-45 CORRIDOR. THIS WOULD
GENERALLY PLACE THE HEAVIEST PRECIP EAST OF THAT AXIS...BUT STILL
ANTICIPATE FAIRLY DECENT CHANCES ACROSS THE MOST OF REGION ESP
DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS. IT`S STILL A GOOD 5 DAYS OUT AND DON`T
HAVE ENOUGH SKILL TO PINPOINT ITS LOCATION THIS FAR OUT (WHICH
MAKES A DIFFERENCE POP/QPF- WISE)...SO THINK THE CURRENT 30-50%
WILL SUFFICE FOR NOW. MEDIUM RANGE SOLNS HAVE SOME SIGNIFICANT
TIMING ISSUES AS TO WHEN THE UPPER WEAKNESS MOVES TO OFF TO THE
EAST BRINGING AN EVENTUAL END TO RAIN CHANCES. FWIW - ECMWF IS
PUSHING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO THE AREA NEXT MONDAY...SOMETHING
THE 06Z GFS WAS ALSO HINTING AT. 47

MARINE...
LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK
WITH A MORE PRONOUNCED ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPING AROUND MID-WEEK AND
ON INTO THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS CHANGE COURTESY OF HIGH PRESSURE
TO THE EAST AND LOWERING PRESSURES TO OUR WEST ALL OF WHICH SHOULD
HELP TO TIGHTEN THE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION. WIND SPEEDS MAY AP-
PROACH SCEC CRITERIA BY LATE THURS. THIS DEEPER ONSHORE FETCH WILL
DRAW ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE IN FROM THE GULF AND INCREASED SH/
TSRA COVERAGE POSSIBLE STARTING THURS INTO THE WEEKEND. STAY TUNED.
41



http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php ... glossary=1

[CYCLONE MIKE]

There is nothing but a tropical wave that will move west across the gulf from the caribbean. No models that I have seen are showing any development later this week. Primarily was talking about rains coming from a tropical system. In SE LA our chances are around 30-40%. Nothing any different than a hot summer day.

BY WEDNESDAY...A TROPICAL WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE GULF OF MEXICO
WILL BRING AN INFLUX OF TROPICAL MOISTURE BACK TO THE AREA. AS THE
MORE TROPICAL AIR MASS MOVES INTO THE AREA...IT WILL FORCE THE
DRIER AIR MASS TO RETREAT NORTHWARD. THIS WILL SET UP A RELATIVELY
TIGHT NORTH/SOUTH POP GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION FOR WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY 20 PERCENT POPS NORTH TO 40
PERCENT POPS ALONG THE COAST.

BY THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY...EXPECT THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA TO
BE WITHIN THE WARM/MOIST AIR MASS. THIS WILL RESULT IN A MORE
TYPICAL DIURNAL CONVECTIVE PATTERN WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON.

[bohaiboy]

That's 30-40% more than we have been having. Heck, even 10% would be a high risk of showers. Was 106F on my weather station today and 22% hunidity