ATL: IRENE - Remnants - Discussion

[Dave]

034
URNT15 KNHC 280405
AF304 3409A IRENE HDOB 48 20110828
035530 3801N 07241W 6962 03023 9896 +089 +085 172081 082 051 000 00
035600 3803N 07243W 6967 03012 9890 +092 +090 170083 085 051 001 00
035630 3806N 07245W 6962 03017 9898 +081 //// 169085 085 049 002 01
035700 3808N 07246W 6969 03001 //// +079 //// 166085 088 046 003 01
035730 3810N 07248W 6967 03005 9890 +078 //// 170090 094 048 004 01
035800 3813N 07250W 6974 02999 9875 +099 //// 171093 094 047 001 01
035830 3815N 07251W 6964 03006 9878 +094 //// 169092 094 048 001 01
035900 3817N 07253W 6961 03010 9880 +090 //// 167089 092 046 001 05
035930 3819N 07254W 6971 02996 9878 +093 //// 167088 089 046 001 01
040000 3819N 07254W 6971 02996 9874 +096 //// 168087 088 047 000 01
040030 3823N 07258W 6968 03000 9873 +096 +096 164085 085 048 001 00
040100 3825N 07259W 6963 03005 9873 +095 //// 163085 086 048 000 05
040130 3827N 07301W 6958 03008 9870 +097 +093 161083 083 050 001 03
040200 3830N 07303W 6963 03004 9874 +095 +091 158085 086 051 000 00
040230 3832N 07304W 6971 02994 9870 +097 +096 157085 085 050 001 00
040300 3834N 07306W 6965 03002 9870 +095 +094 157085 086 051 000 00
040330 3837N 07308W 6963 03002 9873 +094 +093 156083 084 051 000 03
040400 3839N 07310W 6967 02997 9868 +096 +094 158082 083 050 000 00
040430 3841N 07311W 6961 03004 9866 +099 +095 156081 082 049 000 03
040500 3844N 07313W 6973 02990 9872 +095 //// 158080 081 049 001 01
$$
;

[brunota2003]

I've said it before and I'll say it again. We have to stop people from thinking it's "only a cat1 or TS" when they are at risk from downbursts, tornadoes and massive flooding for many more hours to come.
She's hours away from landfall again and the estimated landfall points have already been seriously floded. Then inland areas have people thinking the Wx reporters are "overreacting" when people are being killed things other than hurricane force winds.
Time to reasses the storm rating scales and criteria.

Unfortunately, I think the main thing that keeps the scale from being reorganized is that anything that considers flooding, surge, and wind would have to have multiple ratings. I don't think the general public could handle that (not saying they are stupid), because most are not weatherwise, they are otherwise.

[Dave]

[NC George]

A final report from me:

Irene left the opposite as she came. Now there is light wind, but no rain. Only light visible right now is from 2 TV transmission aerials in the distance. Stars peeking through clouds. Total rainfall tally in the official Irene rain bucket was 12". Water in my yard has receded, came within 6" of the height of hurricane Floyd, which thankfully is just below my floor level. Pressure is back to where it started yesterday.

[Dave]

871
URNT15 KNHC 280415
AF304 3409A IRENE HDOB 49 20110828
040530 3846N 07314W 6966 03001 9878 +094 //// 158080 081 046 000 05
040600 3849N 07314W 6966 02998 9878 +090 //// 160082 083 044 000 05
040630 3852N 07314W 6967 03001 9885 +090 //// 159080 081 044 001 01
040700 3854N 07314W 6967 03005 9886 +089 //// 160080 080 044 001 01
040730 3857N 07314W 6966 03007 9891 +087 //// 157080 081 044 000 01
040800 3859N 07314W 6969 03007 9890 +090 //// 155078 078 044 000 01
040830 3902N 07314W 6966 03013 9888 +095 +088 156077 078 043 000 00
040900 3905N 07314W 6967 03016 9893 +092 +086 155079 080 043 000 00
040930 3907N 07314W 6967 03023 9899 +093 +085 154080 081 043 000 03
041000 3909N 07316W 6966 03024 9906 +091 +079 152077 078 /// /// 03
041030 3909N 07318W 6961 03030 9901 +091 +076 154075 075 042 000 03
041100 3908N 07320W 6968 03013 9899 +086 +077 155069 073 043 000 00
041130 3907N 07322W 6968 03007 9892 +090 +079 155064 065 043 001 00
041200 3906N 07323W 6970 03004 9891 +088 +078 153064 065 043 001 00
041230 3904N 07325W 6966 03006 9888 +088 +081 153067 069 042 000 00
041300 3903N 07327W 6961 03006 9883 +087 +084 153068 069 044 000 00
041330 3902N 07328W 6965 03001 9876 +090 +086 154068 069 044 000 00
041400 3901N 07330W 6966 02996 9874 +090 +088 154069 070 044 000 00
041430 3900N 07331W 6968 02991 9870 +091 +090 153072 073 045 000 03
041500 3858N 07333W 6978 02977 9864 +095 +092 152073 074 046 000 00
$$
;

[Dave]

[Ptarmigan]

Irene's size
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MI ... 0255.shtml

Irene (As of 8/28/2011 0300 UTC)
Hurricane 63.75 nm
Tropical Storm 175 nm

Ike
Best Track (9/13/2008 0600 UTC)
Hurricane 75 nm
Tropical Storm 168.75 nm

Advisory (9/13/2008 0300 UTC)
Hurricane 82.5 nm
Tropical Storm 190 nm

Katrina
Best Track (8/29/2005 1200 UTC)
Hurricane 75 nm
Tropical Storm 162.5 nm

Advisory (8/29/2005 1500 UTC)
Hurricane 85 nm
Tropical Storm 162.5 nm

Gilbert
Best Track (9/16/1988 1200 UTC)
Hurricane 112.5 nm
Tropical Storm 225 nm

Irene is comparable to Ike and Katrina in terms of size.

[Dave]

000
UZNT13 KNHC 280413
XXAA 78047 99383 70729 11682 99987 26439 14053 00613 ///// /////
92574 22213 15084 85307 17816 16592 70957 09802 16589 88999 77999
31313 09608 80359
61616 AF304 3409A IRENE OB 25
62626 SPL 3837N07292W 0402 MBL WND 14572 AEV 20802 DLM WND 16088
987696 WL150 14060 084 REL 3828N07288W 035859 SPG 3837N07292W 040
238 =
XXBB 78048 99383 70729 11682 00987 26439 11850 17816 22793 16239
33713 12810 44696 09000
21212 00987 14053 11984 14059 22978 14059 33971 14066 44966 14067
55960 14576 66955 14580 77919 15082 88906 15590 99893 16091 11885
16088 22850 16592 33792 16602 44696 16588
31313 09608 80359
61616 AF304 3409A IRENE OB 25
62626 SPL 3837N07292W 0402 MBL WND 14572 AEV 20802 DLM WND 16088
987696 WL150 14060 084 REL 3828N07288W 035859 SPG 3837N07292W 040
238 =
;

[southerngale]

One thing for sure is Irene has brought many new faces to the Storm2k chats, which is cool!

It's been so active in there recently, day and night. If you haven't visited the chatroom, stop by. The main topic is of course, Irene, but you can get to know your fellow Storm2k'ers a little better in a chatroom setting. There's a Chatroom button at the top of every Storm2k page and for other chat clients, including mobile, check the thread in the Announcements section at the top of this forum.

[Dave]

DECODED DROPSONDE OB 25

Code: Select all

Product: Air Force Temp Drop (Dropsonde) Message (UZNT13 KNHC)
Transmitted: 28th day of the month at 04:13Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 304)
Storm Number: 09
Storm Name: Irene (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 34
Observation Number: 25

Part A...


Date: Near the closest hour of 4Z on the 28th day of the month
Highest Mandatory Level For Which Wind Was Reported: 700mb
Coordinates: 38.3N 72.9W
Location: 111 miles (179 km) to the SE (132°) from Atlantic City, NJ, USA.
Marsden Square: 116 (About)

Level Geo. Height Air Temp. Dew Point Wind Direction Wind Speed
987mb (29.15 inHg) Sea Level (Surface) 26.4°C (79.5°F) 22.5°C (72.5°F) 140° (from the SE) 53 knots (61 mph)
1000mb -113m (-371 ft) Other data not available.
925mb 574m (1,883 ft) 22.2°C (72.0°F) 20.9°C (69.6°F) 150° (from the SSE) 84 knots (97 mph)
850mb 1,307m (4,288 ft) 17.8°C (64.0°F) 16.2°C (61.2°F) 165° (from the SSE) 92 knots (106 mph)
700mb 2,957m (9,701 ft) 9.8°C (49.6°F) 9.6°C (49.3°F) 165° (from the SSE) 89 knots (102 mph)

Information About Radiosonde:
- Launch Time: 3:59Z
- About Sonde: A descending radiosonde tracked automatically by satellite navigation with no solar or infrared correction.

Remarks Section...


Splash Location: 38.37N 72.92W
Splash Time: 4:02Z

Release Location: 38.28N 72.88W View map)
Release Time: 3:58:59Z

Splash Location: 38.37N 72.92W (
Splash Time: 4:02:38Z

Mean Boundary Level Wind (mean wind in the lowest 500 geopotential meters of the sounding):
- Wind Direction: 145° (from the SE)
- Wind Speed: 72 knots (83 mph)

Deep Layer Mean Wind (average wind over the depth of the sounding):
- Wind Direction: 160° (from the SSE)
- Wind Speed: 88 knots (101 mph)
- Depth of Sounding: From 696mb to 987mb

Average Wind Over Lowest Available 150 geopotential meters (gpm) of the sounding:
- Lowest 150m: 159 gpm - 9 gpm (522 geo. feet - 30 geo. feet)
- Wind Direction: 140° (from the SE)
- Wind Speed: 60 knots (69 mph)

Sounding Software Version: AEV 20802


Part B: Data For Significant Levels...


Significant Temperature And Relative Humidity Levels...
Level Air Temperature Dew Point
987mb (Surface) 26.4°C (79.5°F) 22.5°C (72.5°F)
850mb 17.8°C (64.0°F) 16.2°C (61.2°F)
793mb 16.2°C (61.2°F) 12.3°C (54.1°F)
713mb 12.8°C (55.0°F) 11.8°C (53.2°F)
696mb 9.0°C (48.2°F) 9.0°C (48.2°F)

Significant Wind Levels...
Level Wind Direction Wind Speed
987mb (Surface) 140° (from the SE) 53 knots (61 mph)
984mb 140° (from the SE) 59 knots (68 mph)
978mb 140° (from the SE) 59 knots (68 mph)
971mb 140° (from the SE) 66 knots (76 mph)
966mb 140° (from the SE) 67 knots (77 mph)
960mb 145° (from the SE) 76 knots (87 mph)
955mb 145° (from the SE) 80 knots (92 mph)
919mb 150° (from the SSE) 82 knots (94 mph)
906mb 155° (from the SSE) 90 knots (104 mph)
893mb 160° (from the SSE) 91 knots (105 mph)
885mb 160° (from the SSE) 88 knots (101 mph)
850mb 165° (from the SSE) 92 knots (106 mph)
792mb 165° (from the SSE) 102 knots (117 mph)
696mb 165° (from the SSE) 88 knots (101 mph)


---



[Recurve]

You can hear the wind buffeting up high in Manhattan from the link posted earlier.

http://www.earthcam.com/usa/newyork/timessquare/

[CrazyC83]

One thing for sure is Irene has brought many new faces to the Storm2k chats, which is cool!

It also has me in an unprecedented situation!

[Ptarmigan]

Does anyone know Radius of Outer Closed Isobars (ROCI) for Irene?

[Mello1]

@nbcwashington
NBCWashington Georgetown Univ. building. #dcirene #gtown RT @dcfireems: 3700 O St NW - new bldg partial roof collapse - Graduate School of Arts & Sciences

[WxGuy1]

This was Irene's estimated wind field at landfall as you can see the primary monitoring sites (in red) missed the strongest winds I still don't know why people try to use actual surface obs to gauge max winds in a cyclone after all they are over land at varying exposures and some are not 10m.

Also for most storms it is difficult to actually find measured sustained hurricane force winds I mean look at Dolly only one real sustained hurricane force measurement yet no one argues that was a hurricane (there are countless examples of this)

For the record, I certainly was not suggesting that Irene wasn't a hurricane at landfall. Heck, I'm not saying it's not a hurricane now. I'm just saying that nearly everyone who has been affected by Irene has not seen hurrricane-strength winds. As we've seen and as we've expected, the hurricane-strength winds are primarily (or entirely, at times) in the eastern 1/2 of the circulation, which has been largely east of the land areas (save for far eastern NC). So, for most people who may be home watching Irene batter them, they've largely only seen, at most, tropical storm force winds.

I've mentioned this several times because I don't want people to experience Irene, hear that it is/was a Cat 1 or weak Cat 2, and think to themselves "Hmm, so the winds I was seeing out the window are what 80-90 mph winds look like. This isn't too bad -- the people who evacuated or boarded up are suckers!". People have a tendency to overestimate winds based on visual obs alone, and it can be dangerous because it can lead to ill-fated decisions in subsequent situations. For example, suppose another Cat 1/2 storm comes along next month or next year -- that person's residence may actually see true 80-90 mph winds (which certainly have the potential for causing structural damage, if nothing else). If he/she experienced Irene's winds, thinking they were seeing the "maximum sustained winds of 85 mph", he/she may well stay for the next storm because, well, Irene wasn't so bad. Of course, they didn't see the real 80-90 mph winds that did affect extreme eastern NC...

[jinftl]

Definitely a caveat with the size of Irene's wind field...the NHC mentioned at 11pm....not to mention haven't seen any reports of sustained hurricane force winds anywhere yet....

HURRICANE IRENE DISCUSSION NUMBER
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 PM EDT SAT AUG 27 2011

IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE WIND FIELD GRAPHICS BASED ON THE FOUR-QUADRANT RADII WILL DEPICT AN
UNREALISTICALLY LARGE AREA OF HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS.

Irene's size
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MI ... 0255.shtml

Irene (As of 8/28/2011 0300 UTC)
Hurricane 63.75 nm
Tropical Storm 175 nm

Ike
Best Track (9/13/2008 0600 UTC)
Hurricane 75 nm
Tropical Storm 168.75 nm

Advisory (9/13/2008 0300 UTC)
Hurricane 82.5 nm
Tropical Storm 190 nm

Katrina
Best Track (8/29/2005 1200 UTC)
Hurricane 75 nm
Tropical Storm 162.5 nm

Advisory (8/29/2005 1500 UTC)
Hurricane 85 nm
Tropical Storm 162.5 nm

Gilbert
Best Track (9/16/1988 1200 UTC)
Hurricane 112.5 nm
Tropical Storm 225 nm

Irene is comparable to Ike and Katrina in terms of size.

[Dave]

364
URNT15 KNHC 280427
AF304 3409A IRENE HDOB 50 20110828
041530 3857N 07335W 6959 02996 9858 +095 +093 151075 076 047 001 00
041600 3856N 07336W 6970 02982 9857 +094 //// 150077 077 048 002 01
041630 3855N 07337W 6970 02974 9868 +079 //// 147081 082 049 003 01
041700 3854N 07339W 6964 02981 9853 +089 //// 146078 079 050 004 01
041730 3853N 07340W 6961 02982 9851 +087 //// 146078 080 051 005 01
041800 3852N 07342W 6972 02966 9849 +081 //// 147076 076 052 003 01
041830 3851N 07343W 6963 02975 //// +069 //// 151074 075 053 003 01
041900 3850N 07345W 6969 02959 //// +073 //// 151074 077 052 010 01
041930 3850N 07345W 6969 02959 //// +083 //// 152070 071 055 009 01
042000 3847N 07347W 6967 02958 //// +082 //// 148069 071 047 005 01
042030 3846N 07349W 6965 02961 9836 +085 //// 147066 067 045 001 01
042100 3845N 07350W 6958 02967 9831 +089 //// 147064 064 045 000 05
042130 3844N 07352W 6968 02954 9824 +093 //// 147061 063 043 000 01
042200 3843N 07354W 6965 02953 9816 +097 //// 143059 060 045 000 01
042230 3841N 07355W 6966 02948 //// +094 //// 145057 057 045 001 01
042300 3840N 07357W 6967 02946 9806 +098 //// 147056 057 047 001 01
042330 3839N 07359W 6967 02944 9802 +096 //// 147056 056 047 002 01
042400 3837N 07401W 6966 02941 9800 +100 //// 147056 056 047 001 01
042430 3836N 07402W 6967 02937 9796 +100 //// 145056 057 046 002 01
042500 3835N 07404W 6965 02937 9790 +104 //// 143056 057 045 000 01
$$
;

[Recurve]

I've said it before and I'll say it again. We have to stop people from thinking it's "only a cat1 or TS" when they are at risk from downbursts, tornadoes and massive flooding for many more hours to come.
She's hours away from landfall again and the estimated landfall points have already been seriously floded. Then inland areas have people thinking the Wx reporters are "overreacting" when people are being killed things other than hurricane force winds.
Time to reasses the storm rating scales and criteria.

Unfortunately, I think the main thing that keeps the scale from being reorganized is that anything that considers flooding, surge, and wind would have to have multiple ratings. I don't think the general public could handle that (not saying they are stupid), because most are not weatherwise, they are otherwise.

One more chance for me to mention the IKE scale, which evaluates the entire storm and gives a Wind Damage Potential and Surge/Waves Damage Potential.
The most recent analysis (0130z) : WDP: 2.1, Surge/Waves damage potential 3.8 (scale is 0 to 6.0)

The page is here: http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/Storm_pages/irene2011/wind.html

This is an experimental NOAA/AOML/HRD product, which means it has a good chance to maybe be operational one day...although as Dr. Powell has said, things are very slow to change in this area.

[Janie2006]

I think people also confuse the differences between gusts and sustained winds. IIRC, a sustained wind speed is that which is measured for a minute or more, while gusts are only of a few seconds duration....yes?

[Dave]