ATL: IRENE - Remnants - Discussion

[funster]

I'm glad Irene's backside disappeared so there is not much extra rainfall beyond the large amounts that already fell. These areas with all the rain will be in serious trouble yet again if a storm from the gulf gets dragged up the east coast next month, which is always possible in September.

[Hogweed]

Flood sirens going off at Gilboa Dam/Schoharie area NY. Residents urged to evacuate the flood zone immediately.

TYPE B EMERGENCY DECLARED - "Possibility of dam failure has increased"

Dam currently said to be "intact" but waters "cresting" plus "failure of monitoring equipment" means residents must evacuate immediately according to local tv reports.

[supercane]

000
WTNT34 KNHC 281753
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM IRENE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 33A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092011
200 PM EDT SUN AUG 28 2011

...CENTER OF IRENE MOVING OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...42.2N 73.2W
ABOUT 15 MI...30 KM S OF PITTSFIELD MASSACHUSETTS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 26 MPH...43 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...970 MB...28.64 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING SOUTH OF CAPE HENLOPEN DELAWARE...AND FOR
CHESAPEAKE BAY...IS DISCONTINUED.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CAPE HENLOPEN DELAWARE NORTHWARD TO EASTPORT MAINE...
INCLUDING DELAWARE BAY...NEW YORK CITY...LONG ISLAND...LONG ISLAND
SOUND...COASTAL CONNECTICUT AND RHODE ISLAND...BLOCK
ISLAND...MARTHAS VINEYARD AND NANTUCKET
* UNITED STATES/CANADA BORDER NORTHEASTWARD TO FORT LAWRENCE
INCLUDING GRAND MANAN
* SOUTH COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA FROM FORT LAWRENCE TO PORTERS LAKE

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN EASTERN CANADA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
IRENE.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IRENE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 42.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 73.2 WEST. IRENE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 26 MPH...43 KM/H...AND THIS
MOTION WITH A LITTLE FASTER FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
DAY OR SO. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF IRENE WILL MOVE
OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND OVER EASTERN
CANADA TONIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS...MAINLY OVER WATER WELL EAST OF THE CENTER. IRENE IS
FORECAST TO WEAKEN AND BECOME A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE BY TONIGHT.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 320 MILES...520 KM
MAINLY TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 970 MB...28.64 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
STORM SURGE...AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER
LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 4 TO 8 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL FROM WESTERN
PORTIONS OF LONG ISLAND ISLAND SOUND EASTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN
COASTS OF CONNECTICUT...RHODE ISLAND...AND MASSACHUSETTS. THE
HIGHEST SURGES WILL OCCUR NEAR THE UPPER PARTS OF BAYS AND INLETS.
NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE...
DESTRUCTIVE...AND LIFE-THREATENING WAVES. HIGHER THAN NORMAL
ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE OCCURRING THIS WEEKEND. COASTAL AND RIVER
FLOODING WILL BE HIGHEST IN AREAS WHERE THE PEAK SURGE OCCURS
AROUND THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE. STORM TIDE AND SURGE VALUES ARE VERY
LOCATION-SPECIFIC...AND USERS ARE URGED TO CONSULT PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY THEIR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICES.

RAINFALL...IRENE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS
OF 4 TO 6 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES...
FROM THE NORTHERN PORTION OF NEW YORK STATE NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH
THE WESTERN PORTION OF NEW ENGLAND. THESE RAINS...COMBINED WITH
HEAVY RAINS OVER THE PAST FEW WEEKS...COULD CAUSE WIDESPREAD
FLOODING AND LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS.

WIND...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD INTO
PORTIONS OF NEW BRUNSWICK AND NOVA SCOTIA LATER TODAY.
SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER WIND SPEEDS ARE LIKELY OVER AREAS OF ELEVATED
TERRAIN IN NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND EASTERN CANADA.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH/BROWN

[Hogweed]

...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...

THE FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR

* A PORTION OF EAST CENTRAL NEW YORK...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING
AREA...SCHOHARIE.

* THROUGH LATE TONIGHT

* NEW YORK CITY DEPARTMENT OF ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION OFFICIALS
HAVE DECLARED A TYPE B SITUATION AT GILBOA DAM. A POTENTIALLY
HAZARDOUS SITUATION IS DEVELOPING AT GILBOA DAM. THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR DAM FAILURE. NEW YORK CITY DEPARTMENT OF
ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION OFFICIALS ARE MONITORING THE DAM.
THE NEW YORK POWER AUTHORITY HAS ALSO DECLARED A TYPE B
SITUATION AT THE BLENHEIM-GILBOA POWER PROJECT DAM DUE TO LOWER
RESERVOIR ELEVATION AND RAPID INFLOW.

* RESIDENTS ALONG THE SCHOHARIE CREEK SHOULD TAKE PRECAUTIONS
AGAINST THE POTENTIAL DAMBREAK. BE READY TO IMPLEMENT YOUR
EVACUATION PLAN IMMEDIATELY IF ORDERED TO DO SO BY EMERGENCY
MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS.
THE FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR
THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR

* A PORTION OF EAST CENTRAL NEW YORK...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING
AREA...SCHOHARIE.

* THROUGH MONDAY MORNING

* NEW YORK CITY DEPARTMENT OF ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION OFFICIALS
HAVE DECLARED A TYPE B SITUATION AT GILBOA DAM. A POTENTIALLY
HAZARDOUS SITUATION IS DEVELOPING AT GILBOA DAM. THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR DAM FAILURE. NEW YORK CITY DEPARTMENT OF
ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION OFFICIALS ARE MONITORING THE DAM.
THE NEW YORK POWER AUTHORITY HAS ALSO DECLARED A TYPE B
SITUATION AT THE BLENHEIM-GILBOA POWER PROJECT DAM DUE TO LOWER
RESERVOIR ELEVATION AND RAPID INFLOW.

* RESIDENTS ALONG THE SCHOHARIE CREEK SHOULD TAKE PRECAUTIONS
AGAINST THE POTENTIAL DAMBREAK. BE READY TO IMPLEMENT YOUR
EVACUATION PLAN IMMEDIATELY IF ORDERED TO DO SO BY EMERGENCY
MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS.
THE FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR

Instructions: THIS FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT A POTENTIALLY HAZARDOUS SITUATION IS DEVELOPING AT GILBOA DAM. YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION SHOULD FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS BE ISSUED.
Target Area:
Schoharie

[JtSmarts]

Tweet by Dr. Knabb

Storm surge of 4-8 feet has caused extensive damage to several beachfront homes in East Haven, CT. #Irene

[TYNI]

Flood sirens going off at Gilboa Dam/Schoharie area NY. Residents urged to evacuate the flood zone immediately.

TYPE B EMERGENCY DECLARED - "Possibility of dam failure has increased"

Dam currently said to be "intact" but waters "cresting" plus "failure of monitoring equipment" means residents must evacuate immediately according to local tv reports.

Uploaded with ImageShack.us

[tolakram]

Irene and Jose, live loop: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... mframes=20

Latest Visible:

[ncbird]

The question to everyone is does Irene warrant a retirement of her name? If it does get retired, it will be because of the large area it affected and because of damage caused it the Bahamas. I personally say NO Retirement, based on limited damaged in NC where it first struck. Damage looked more like Low-End Cat. 1; however, flooding that may occurr during the next few days could change results. I am interested to hear other comments on Retirement!!

Puerto Rico had around $500 millon of damage with one death,but I dont think that will be enough for the commitee to decide on retirement.

I just finished reading an article released today by Peter Morici former Chief Economist at the U.S. International Trade Commission in which he says "initial estimate of the losses imposed by Irene is about $25 to $30 billion."

[Extratropical94]

The question to everyone is does Irene warrant a retirement of her name? If it does get retired, it will be because of the large area it affected and because of damage caused it the Bahamas. I personally say NO Retirement, based on limited damaged in NC where it first struck. Damage looked more like Low-End Cat. 1; however, flooding that may occurr during the next few days could change results. I am interested to hear other comments on Retirement!!

Puerto Rico had around $500 millon of damage with one death,but I dont think that will be enough for the commitee to decide on retirement.

I just finished reading an article released today by Peter Morici former Chief Economist at the U.S. International Trade Commission in which he says "initial estimate of the losses imposed by Irene is about $25 to $30 billion."

Wow, seriously? Add the three-and-a-half billion dollars damage from the Carib and this would rank somewhere in the top 10 of the costliest hurricanes.

[Zarniwoop]

Its hard to imagine that Irene caused that much financial damage, but they're the experts.

[CrazyC83]

If that number is correct, it would be the 4th or 5th costliest US hurricane.

[Hogweed]

Gilboa Dam discharge rate into Schoharie Creek



Uploaded with ImageShack.us

Note that's a log scale. and now at 60,000 cubic feet per second.

[CrazyC83]

What are the chances this becomes a massive extratropical storm and seriously impacts places in northern Europe and nearby (i.e. Iceland, Scandinavia, etc.)?

[Extratropical94]

What are the chances this becomes a massive extratropical storm and seriously impacts places in northern Europe and nearby (i.e. Iceland, Scandinavia, etc.)?

12Z GFS has it stalling near Iceland as we head into September.

[CrazyC83]

I did the math for number of areas impacted by Irene to some degree (at least heavy rain or TS winds):

17 US states (plus DC)
6 Canadian provinces
10 Caribbean countries
11 Caribbean dependencies

[CrazyC83]

What are the chances this becomes a massive extratropical storm and seriously impacts places in northern Europe and nearby (i.e. Iceland, Scandinavia, etc.)?

12Z GFS has it stalling near Iceland as we head into September.

In other words, Irene may NOT be done when she leaves North America for good...

[Extratropical94]

Well, the folks in Iceland do know how to cope with those extratropical storms / polar lows. They experience cyclones with wind speeds of 60+ mph all year round.

[fci]

I am glad the NHC downgraded it at landfall in NYC...I think a lot of New Yorkers would have thought that this was a walk in the park compared to the "hype" and they would be more complacent in the future. This could have been a whole lot worse...perhaps 10-15 mph an hour more, and the situation would have been a whole lot different. The timing and angle of motion were nearly perfect for a devastating storm, but the fact that it wasn't as strong as feared was a complete saving grace. This is a very damaging storm, and I don't want to downplay what has happened so far, but had Irene not struggled off Florida like it did and at least maintained major hurricane status as it approached the Carolinas, I think we would have been dealing with an outcome that would have been a whole lot different.

Even a tropical storm can be bad too. Case in point, Allison and Alberto. At least, it was not as bad as expected. I still don't think they dodged a bullet. They were hit by a weaker bullet.

I don't think they dodged a bullet either...the flooding over NJ and the Hudson Valley will be tremendous. But in terms of the financial capital of the world...and the disruptions and damage this could have caused...which could have ultimately affected the economy as a whole, the effects to the infrastructure were so much less than expected, and NYC (and America, as a whole), can breathe a little sigh of relief on that end.

Bullet-dodging is a good debate.
On one hand, people not very familiar with tropical threats found that a Tropical Storm can cause a lot of damage. The number of fatalities and damage and flooding from "just" a minimal Hurricane/Tropical Storm is an eyeopener

On the other hand, it still was nowhere near as bad as it could have been had it maintained Cat 3 strength to NC and Cat 1/2 to the major metropolitan areas in the NE. Will the general public respect the next warnings when a Cat 3 DOES hit the SE and goes up the coast as a 1/2 or, even worse; a storm that makes initial landfall in the Mid-Atlantic States?
Or will they say that they have been through something not so bad with Irene and disregard the NEXT time there are warnings.

Also, this storm came in on a weekend which provides a much smaller disruption to daily life and the missing of much work. Another bullet dodged.

[ncbird]

Its hard to imagine that Irene caused that much financial damage, but they're the experts.

I think what many people don't realize is when figuring the total economic impact a storm has, they must also account for the loss of business activity. Irene has cost at least 1 to 2 days or more along the entire coast from NC on up.

[fci]

If that number is correct, it would be the 4th or 5th costliest US hurricane.

It makes you dizzy thinking if Irene had been as strong as originally feared how costly it would have been in lives, damage and dollars considering how much weaker Irene ended up being.