ATL: KATIA - Post Tropical - Discussion

[Aric Dunn]

for what its worth. the 12z GFS is significantly farther SW than the 6z.

[GCANE]

Current CIMSS analysis has shear at 26 knots

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/s ... 000&loop=0

[SFLcane]

There seems to be some type of low pressure development of the southeast coast that weakens the high even further. Not sure weather its tropical though. Both the NAM and GFS show this.

Here's the 12z NAM..



Previous 06z NAM http://coaps.fsu.edu/~maue/tropical/plots/nam900uv2_06_29.png

[CrazyC83]

Those could just be the remnants of Jose...

[Aric Dunn]

RAMMB floater..

just have to block all by 3 images ... has a very well defined circ. no multiple vorts like every other system thus far which means we will likely have our first hurricane east of the islands.

And with such a well defined circ it is quite likely that we will see a large burst of convection near the center sometime soon.


http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... r2_floater

[Aric Dunn]

looks like a big shift west for the GFS notice the low/ trough that was off NEW England in the 6z vs the 12z.. the 12z run no longer has it there nearly at all. ridging extending farther west.


12z


6z

[Aric Dunn]

major shift in the 12z GFS run ... especially noting the weakness and the trough

[cycloneye]

At this 12z run,it passes less than 100 miles from Bermuda,while past runs had it farther away.

[Aric Dunn]

At this 12z run,it passes less than 100 miles from Bermuda,while past runs had it farther away.

yep closer to the NE islands. this run the turn was much farther west.

[SFLcane]

At 200hrs or so trough starts digging down deep into the southeastern states and says it was nice knowing you. Plenty of time to watch this one.

[Aric Dunn]

the trun happens for than 500 miles wsw of the 6z run.. and the 6z run the turn happens for a different trough than the 12z.

[Aric Dunn]

The 12z Nogaps. followls the GFS this run .. showing it missing the first weakness and maintaining a wnw motion.

12z
https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... t=Tropical

6z
https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... t=Tropical

[HurricaneWarning92]

He may exaggerate a bit most of the times, but JB just posted on Twitter about TD#12... "Still think GFS is missing pattern. Typhoon hits Japan from south Thur into Fri, teleconnection 6-10 days later would have central US trof".

Dont know about you guys, but i find it very interesting.

[HurricaneMaster_PR]

The 12z Nogaps. followls the GFS this run .. showing it missing the first weakness and maintaining a wnw motion.

12z
https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... t=Tropical

6z
https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... t=Tropical

Aric, I remembered Hurricane Earl exactly one year ago that passed very close to Puerto Rico and the models where forecasting the system to pass way northeast of us in their first runs and then began adjusting to the west. I will keep watching this one closely as it looks like the system wont deepen so quickly.

[Aric Dunn]

He may exaggerate a bit most of the times, but JB just posted on Twitter about TD#12... "Still think GFS is missing pattern. Typhoon hits Japan from south Thur into Fri, teleconnection 6-10 days later would have central US trof".

Dont know about you guys, but i find it very interesting.

I dont follow JB at all.. but I do agree with that statement at least.. all the models are missing the pattern but each run they seem to getting a little better handle on it.. thus the shift west each run

[gatorcane]

12Z Guidance, continues to show a noticeable WNW movement to commence immediately:

[HurricaneWarning92]

He may exaggerate a bit most of the times, but JB just posted on Twitter about TD#12... "Still think GFS is missing pattern. Typhoon hits Japan from south Thur into Fri, teleconnection 6-10 days later would have central US trof".

Dont know about you guys, but i find it very interesting.

I dont follow JB at all.. but I do agree with that statement at least.. all the models are missing the pattern but each run they seem to getting a little better handle on it.. thus the shift west each run

Well IF this scenario turns out to be right with the trough in the central U.S and not the east, wouldnt that put the east coast, lets say from Florida all the way to Cape Hatteras in play?

[Aric Dunn]

He may exaggerate a bit most of the times, but JB just posted on Twitter about TD#12... "Still think GFS is missing pattern. Typhoon hits Japan from south Thur into Fri, teleconnection 6-10 days later would have central US trof".

Dont know about you guys, but i find it very interesting.

I dont follow JB at all.. but I do agree with that statement at least.. all the models are missing the pattern but each run they seem to getting a little better handle on it.. thus the shift west each run

Well IF this scenario turns out to be right with the trough in the central U.S and not the east, wouldnt that put the east coast, lets say from Florida all the way to Cape Hatteras in play?

Yeah if the trough is set up farther west. the brumuda high will be able to extend farther west as well...

[KWT]

Doesn't look too bad right now butn i do agree with the others that given the set-up aloft the models are probably being over-agressive.

Something similar happened with Earl last year, the models bombed it too quickly and in truth it didn't really get going till further west, thus it also got further west.

IMO still needs close watching in at least NE Caribbean, Bermuda and E.Canada based on the models at the moment...and that may well not be all as well...

[tolakram]

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