ATL: KATIA - Post Tropical - Discussion

[cheezyWXguy]

There is nothing that makes me think there will be enough ridging to push a developed TD12 into the Caribbean or to the CONUS.

i guess the gfs and euro dont count then....

[TheBurn]

RGB / Natural Color

[OuterBanker]

Katia will be a fish. Why, because I've had my fill of hurricanes this year. Earls analog does fit the pattern. Isabel was at a slightly higer lat with a pattern set in stone. But if I remember correctly, it too was going to become a fish this early.

[fci]

Well, this is turning out so far to be a pretty goofy season with the monster Texas ridge, a storm going right up the coast and affecting the NE.
Climatology is a slam dunk that TD12 will recurve, but; I am not so sure that we can count on climatology in a goofy year like this.
And this comment is coming from someone who constantly, incessantly, relies on climatology to make most of his arguments!!!!

[cycloneye]

RGB / Natural Color

http://img577.imageshack.us/img577/4482 ... cidpg2.jpg

That is a very cool image with the sun glare in the ocean. 12 slowly getting there.

[ROCK]

Well, this is turning out so far to be a pretty goofy season with the monster Texas ridge, a storm going right up the coast and affecting the NE.
Climatology is a slam dunk that TD12 will recurve, but; I am not so sure that we can count on climatology in a goofy year like this.
And this comment is coming from someone who constantly, incessantly, relies on climatology to make most of his arguments!!!!

you must be running a high fever....

[ROCK]

to be fair so did the GFDL and HWRF....the EURO is not wonderful at intensity and neither is any of the models for that matter. but track wise KING EURO rules them all.... [/quote]


LoL if you used GFDL and Euro in the same sentence in front of Joe Bastardi he would roid rage on you.. Heheh but to your point i do remember seeing the GFDL in the teens a few time... like 915[/quote]


yeah I saw a 925 in there as well with the GFDL....


next up TD 12 and her west run....the 18Z will be out in a few....

[LarryWx]

LoL if you used GFDL and Euro in the same sentence in front of Joe Bastardi he would roid rage on you.. Heheh but to your point i do remember seeing the GFDL in the teens a few time... like 915

The lowest Euro pressures for Irene were above 30N, where it has been biased too strong since last season. For Irene above 30N, it had the following as the lowest for the 8/22 12Z through 8/26 0Z runs (in mb), respectively: 926, 936, 923, 927, 925, 921, 924, and 918. The lowest for 30N or higher verified to be 945 mb.

That being said, it did quite well with the track and was a bit better than the GFS.

[Vortex]

Likely a recurve, nonetheless will be watching(should make for some great sat pics)..Almost september, CV season in peak mode till we start to shut it down(typically) in about 3 weeks and head in closer to home..Btw, after watching Irene the last 10 days "Hurricane fatigue" has set in. Looking forward to the first "cool" front in about 7 weeks...

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122011
500 PM AST MON AUG 29 2011

...DEPRESSION CONTINUES OVER THE FAR EASTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...10.2N 28.4W
ABOUT 415 MI...670 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 10.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 28.4 WEST. THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/H. A TURN
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT A FASTER FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED
OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...AND THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM TONIGHT.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB...29.77 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH



TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122011
500 PM AST MON AUG 29 2011

THE DEPRESSION HAS NOT BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED DURING THE DAY.
BANDING FEATURES HAVE NOT BECOME MORE DEFINED AND THE LOW-LEVEL
CENTER REMAINS NEAR THE NORTHEASTERN EDGE OF THE MAIN AREA OF DEEP
CONVECTION. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS HELD AT 30 KT IN AGREEMENT
WITH DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB. THE SHIPS GUIDANCE
INDICATES THAT THE STRONG EAST-NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
CURRENTLY AFFECTING THE SYSTEM WILL LESSEN WITHIN A DAY OR
SO...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW STRENGTHENING TO COMMENCE SOON. THE
OFFICIAL WIND SPEED FORECAST IS NOT FAR FROM THE
STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL INTENSITY GUIDANCE.

INITIAL MOTION IS JUST NORTH OF DUE WEST OR ABOUT 280/12. THERE HAS
BEEN LITTLE CHANGE TO THE TRACK FORECAST OR FORECAST REASONING FROM
THIS MORNING. A MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS CURRENTLY NORTH OF
THE DEPRESSION. OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...THE TROPICAL CYCLONE
IS EXPECTED TO TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST IN RESPONSE TO A
WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE NEAR 50W LONGITUDE. GLOBAL MODELS PREDICT
THAT THE WEAKNESS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT WESTWARD OVER TIME. AS A
RESULT...A CONTINUED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK IS FORECAST THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS BETWEEN
THE LATEST ECMWF AND GFS SOLUTION...BUT LEANS MORE TOWARD THE ECMWF
TRACK AS THE GFS SEEMS TO BE TOO SLOW IN THE LATTER PART OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 29/2100Z 10.2N 28.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 30/0600Z 10.9N 30.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 30/1800Z 11.9N 32.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 31/0600Z 13.0N 35.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 31/1800Z 14.0N 38.6W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 01/1800Z 15.5N 45.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 02/1800Z 17.0N 50.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
120H 03/1800Z 19.0N 55.0W 90 KT 105 MPH

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

[BigA]

Sorry if this has been posted, but the 12Z FIM is a good deal farther west-making a beeline at the end of the run toward the SE US.



Uploaded with ImageShack.us

Not sure about this model's accuracy, but it is thousands of miles west from two days ago. The trend is definitely westward in the overall models.

[cycloneye]

An excerpt of the 5 PM discussion.

GLOBAL MODELS PREDICT
THAT THE WEAKNESS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT WESTWARD OVER TIME. AS A
RESULT...A CONTINUED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK IS FORECAST THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS BETWEEN
THE LATEST ECMWF AND GFS SOLUTION...BUT LEANS MORE TOWARD THE ECMWF
TRACK AS THE GFS SEEMS TO BE TOO SLOW IN THE LATTER PART OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD.



Saved image.

[hurricaneCW]

The euro and the gfs both develop a couple of gulf lows as well, could those be our next storms?

[Aric Dunn]

An excerpt of the 5 PM discussion.

GLOBAL MODELS PREDICT
THAT THE WEAKNESS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT WESTWARD OVER TIME. AS A
RESULT...A CONTINUED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK IS FORECAST THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS BETWEEN
THE LATEST ECMWF AND GFS SOLUTION...BUT LEANS MORE TOWARD THE ECMWF
TRACK AS THE GFS SEEMS TO BE TOO SLOW IN THE LATTER PART OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD.

[img]http://img835.imageshack.us/img835/4841/203214w5nlsm.gif[/mg]

Saved image.

Yeah thats a good call. the trough is looking less likely to be a pronounced as the earlier runs were depicting .

[bob rulz]

We finally have a system in the far eastern Atlantic with no competing circulations. All systems are go for this one it appears.

[gatorcane]

The 12Z ECMWF ensembles have shifted more west through 240 hours with at least one solution all the way west near the Central Bahamas:

12Z ECMWF Ensembles at 240 hours:


Also, very close to the Northern Leewards at 168 hours:

[Blown Away]

Still that big hole in the ridge to allow a N turn, maybe Carolinas close call.

[T'Bonz]

Looking forward to the first "cool" front in about 7 weeks...

You and I both.

[Blown Away]

System tracks within 65 miles of TD12. There are some whoppers!

[Kohlecane]

I know it's really early, but any threat for US on this one