Gulf Homebrew? (Is invest 93L)

[Big O]

12z Euro has landfall near BRO.

[BigB0882]

I wish this would hit upper TX to mid TX coast. Don't go south into MX again!

[Tireman4]

Way too early to call anything. Way too early....

[wxman57]

GFS/Euro remind me of Frances in 1998. Will they verify? Probably not, certainly not the 2 storms in the Gulf solution (I hope). We better get some decent rain out of this somehow.

[Portastorm]

GFS/Euro remind me of Frances in 1998. Will they verify? Probably not, certainly not the 2 storms in the Gulf solution (I hope). We better get some decent rain out of this somehow.

Frances?! The same Frances that rained some 21 inches on H-town?

You have piqued my interest, wxman57. And yes, I agree that we better some get decent rainfall out of this. With our luck this year, I can't help but think it won't happen.

[Tireman4]

GFS/Euro remind me of Frances in 1998. Will they verify? Probably not, certainly not the 2 storms in the Gulf solution (I hope). We better get some decent rain out of this somehow.

If memory serves, Tropical Storm Frances was a strong tropical storm. I remember her well in Santa Fe in 1998.

[wxman57]

GFS/Euro remind me of Frances in 1998. Will they verify? Probably not, certainly not the 2 storms in the Gulf solution (I hope). We better get some decent rain out of this somehow.

Frances?! The same Frances that rained some 21 inches on H-town?

You have piqued my interest, wxman57. And yes, I agree that we better some get decent rainfall out of this. With our luck this year, I can't help but think it won't happen.

Yep, that's it! For those of you who don't remember, Frances wound up in the NW/N-Central Gulf for 3-4 days before finally moving inland near Corpus. But all the squalls were well north of the center. Corpus got nothing - no wind, no rain. We got dumped on, and the northern Gulf had 50-60 mph east winds for 3 days. My yard could use 21" of rain about now...

[Macrocane]

Congrats to the FIM, it was one of the first models to show development in the area and it still does, although there's something weird on the 12z run and mantains a rather strong cyclone almost stationary for several days off the coast of Louisiana and Texas.

[South Texas Storms]

Congrats to the FIM, it was one of the first models to show development in the area and it still does, although there's something weird on the 12z run and mantains a rather strong cyclone almost stationary for several days off the coast of Louisiana and Texas.

Yeah I noticed that Macrocane. It looks like it is a pretty accurate model so far in the tropics. The NAM was also one of the first models to show development in this area.

[weatherrabbit_tx]

don't I remember T.S Frances...dump lots a rain on the coastal areas. remember seeing blue lightening with this system...also being under a feeder band with the wind & rain seem like lasted for hours....here I found a write up on frances...

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/tropical/r ... s1998.html

[Macrocane]

Yeah, to be fair this season the NAM has been less bad than in other years. I think we still need to watch for consistency but the fact that all globals are developing something in the area is very telling in my non-pro an unofficial opinion.

[underthwx]

GFS/Euro remind me of Frances in 1998. Will they verify? Probably not, certainly not the 2 storms in the Gulf solution (I hope). We better get some decent rain out of this somehow.

Frances?! The same Frances that rained some 21 inches on H-town?

You have piqued my interest, wxman57. And yes, I agree that we better some get decent rainfall out of this. With our luck this year, I can't help but think it won't happen.

if i remember correctly Claudette 1979....40 in. in Alvin....something close to that here in my town......give or take....correct if im wrong..

[Tireman4]

GFS/Euro remind me of Frances in 1998. Will they verify? Probably not, certainly not the 2 storms in the Gulf solution (I hope). We better get some decent rain out of this somehow.

Frances?! The same Frances that rained some 21 inches on H-town?

You have piqued my interest, wxman57. And yes, I agree that we better some get decent rainfall out of this. With our luck this year, I can't help but think it won't happen.

if i remember correctly Frances 1979....40 in. in Alvin....something close to that here in my town......give or take....

Nope, that was Claudette, 1979.....

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tropical_S ... ette_(1979)

[underthwx]

yep....i was in the middle of correcting myself while you were correcting me...i dont know why I was thinking of Frances........sorry.......thats why im only just a Tropical Storm.....im trying to earn my wings.

[Tireman4]

yep....i was in the middle of correcting myself while you were correcting me...i dont know why I was thinking of Frances........sorry.......thats why im only just a Tropical Storm.....im trying to earn my wings.

That is ok. No worries...

[Rgv20]

Brownsville Afternoon discussion........They have a pretty lengthy discussion if anyone wants to read it http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=BRO&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...AND NOW IT GETS
INTERESTING. THE BIG PICTURE STRONGLY SUPPORTS A CHANGE FROM THE
HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPERIENCED FOR MOST OF THE SUMMER TO A
MORE HUMID...WETTER...CLOUDIER...AND THUS LOWER TEMPERATURES AS
THE CALENDAR TURNS TO OUR RAINIEST MONTH OF THE YEAR ON AVERAGE.

AS IRENE AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH EXIT...THE "CANICULA" RIDGE WHICH
HAS BEEN PARKED ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST U.S. AND NORTHWEST MEXICO
WILL SPREAD TEMPORARILY INTO THE SOUTHEAST U.S. THIS WILL OPEN THE
DOOR FOR DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE TO FLOW AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF
THE RIDGE AND INTO THE WESTERN GULF...INCLUDING THE TEXAS AND
LOUISIANA COAST...BEGINNING WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE
FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. THEN THINGS GET DICEY. A WEAKNESS
DEVELOPS BETWEEN THE RIDGES AS THE SOUTHWEST U.S. PORTION
REESTABLISHES WHILE THE SOUTHEAST RIDGE FLATTENS A BIT BUT HOLDS.
WITHIN THE WEAKNESS COMES THE POTENTIAL FOR THE FESTERING WEAKNESS
TO WRAP UP INTO A CLOSED LOW. SUCH CLOSED LOWS AT THIS TIME OF
YEAR WITH SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER MOISTURE OVER 88 DEGREE WATER ARE
NOTHING BUT TROUBLE...AND SUCH HAS BEEN THE CASE FOR A NUMBER OF
RAPIDLY DEVELOPING TROPICAL CYCLONES IN THE PAST. A LOT STILL HAS
TO HAPPEN BETWEEN NOW AND THE WEEKEND...BUT THE 12Z GFS...12Z
ECMWF...12Z CANADIAN GEM ARE ALL IN AGREEMENT WITH SOME KIND OF
DEVELOPMENT AS THE WEEKEND PROGRESSES. QUESTIONS AS TO
WHERE...WHEN...HOW MUCH...AND FINAL TRACK CANNOT BE RESOLVED NOW.
NEEDLESS TO SAY ANYONE WITH LABOR DAY WEEKEND PLANS ON THE TEXAS
COAST NEED TO BE VIGILANT AND KEEP A SHARP EYE ON THE WEATHER.

Props to the NWS in Brownsville even when there was no model support a couple of day ago they kept suggesting that something may get going in the Western GOM...

[Stormcenter]

This is an excerpt from this afternoon's NWS Shreveport, LA. discussion.

LOW EXPECTED TO FORM IN THE WRN GULF OF MEXICO LATE THURSDAY.
CONSIDERABLE MODEL SPREAD EXISTS IN THE TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THIS
SYSTEM. DEPENDING ON YOUR CHOICE OF MODEL GUIDANCE...THE SYSTEM
COULD COME ONSHORE ANYWHERE FROM BROWNSVILLE TO SABINE PASS. THE
LATEST RUN OF THE GFS HAS BACKED OFF FROM PREVIOUS RUNS AND IS NOT
DEPICTING AS STRONG OF A LOW. PREVIOUS RUNS WERE SOMEWHAT IN
AGREEMENT WITH THE 12Z NAM. FOR NOW...CURRENT THINKING HOLDS THAT
WIDESPREAD RAINS WILL LIKELY OCCUR ACROSS MUCH OF THE FOUR STATE
AREA FOR LABOR DAY WEEKEND....BEGINNING LATE THURSDAY AND
CONTINUING THROUGH MONDAY. THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL SHOULD RESULT IN KEEPING MAX TEMPS DOWN IN THE
LOWER 90S.

[Stormcenter]

This is an excerpt from this afternoon's NWS New Orleans discussion
LONG TERM...
MODELS SHOW TROUGHING ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD THAT MAY BRING A
FRONT INTO THE GULF STATES LATE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A
TIGHTENING OF THE GRADIENT MAY BRING A MODERATE TO STRONG EASTERLY
FLOW IN TIME TO RAISE CONCERNS FOR HIGH TIDES AND COASTAL IMPACTS.
MODELS INDICATE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT THAT MAY BE OF HYBRID
TROPICAL AND BAROCLINIC STRUCTURES TO ASSIST IN TIGHTENING THE
GRADIENT. SOME OF THIS APPEARS TO BE TELECONNECTION RESPONSE TO
POTENTIAL T.D. 12 /KATIA/ INTENSIFICATION AS DEPICTED IN THE LONG
RANGE TIME STEPS OFF THE U.S. EASTERN SEABOARD. THE PATTERN WOULD
GENERALLY FAVOR LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT IN THE WEST GULF BUT
VERTICAL SHEAR MAY BE A LIMITING FACTOR.

[fci]

Well...... all this might put the people of Texas back into play and maybe (!!) spell relief for the drought???

[TYNI]

"A LOT STILL HAS TO HAPPEN BETWEEN NOW AND THE WEEKEND...BUT THE 12Z GFS...12Z
ECMWF...12Z CANADIAN GEM ARE ALL IN AGREEMENT WITH SOME KIND OF
DEVELOPMENT AS THE WEEKEND PROGRESSES. QUESTIONS AS TO
WHERE...WHEN...HOW MUCH...AND FINAL TRACK CANNOT BE RESOLVED NOW."

Might be my statement of the season!