Gulf Homebrew? (Is invest 93L)

bamajammer4eva · #101 Postby **bamajammer4eva** » Mon Aug 29, 2011 5:03 pm

Record dry summer here in Alabama also so a nice strong tropical system would be welcome 8-)

Aric Dunn · #102 Postby **Aric Dunn** » Mon Aug 29, 2011 5:06 pm

Looks like a weak low forming south of Jamaica. should head NW and once in the NW carrib or southern gulf towards the end of the week could see some development.

Ptarmigan · #103 Postby **Ptarmigan** » Mon Aug 29, 2011 5:08 pm

If something developed in the Gulf of Mexico, it probably would be a tropical storm. If named, it would be Lee.

TeamPlayersBlue · #104 Postby **TeamPlayersBlue** » Mon Aug 29, 2011 5:18 pm

Ptarmigan wrote:If something developed in the Gulf of Mexico, it probably would be a tropical storm. If named, it would be Lee.

There must be some mad shear or dry air tearing it apart for it to only remain a TS. The water is just so warm in the GOM, i cant see how it would remain less than a hurricane pending major disruptions to the circulation

perk · #105 Postby **perk** » Mon Aug 29, 2011 5:32 pm

fci wrote:Well...... all this might put the people of Texas back into play and maybe (!!) spell relief for the drought???

I really hope so, it was 106 degrees at my house today.

KatDaddy · #106 Postby **KatDaddy** » Mon Aug 29, 2011 5:37 pm

Joe B tweeted WGOM homebrew for Labor Day. The moisture is pooling over the W Caribbean.

#107 Postby **South Texas Storms** » Mon Aug 29, 2011 5:55 pm

I'm really worried that it is going to sit off shore and give central Texas limited amounts of rain... :cry:

#108 Postby **BreinLa** » Mon Aug 29, 2011 6:23 pm

gatorcane wrote:18Z GFS long-range, 372 hours:

Dang this isn't good don't wanna see that in my backyard

#109 Postby **WeatherCat** » Mon Aug 29, 2011 6:25 pm

Greetings S2K, I'm a two season lurker and 2011 new member/supporter - thanks to all of you for the time invested and information provided on this forum. I had to chime in here at the mere mention of TS Frances by Wxman57 and the phrases "tightening of the gradient" and "strong easterly flow" by the NWS in New Orleans.

TS Frances was a prime example of the anti-hype storm in Hou/Galv and, at the time, I was naive enough to take direction from TV mets. Left the West End of Galveston without doing any storm prep and woke up the next morning to the drama of the news crews showing waves crashing the seawall and confirmation from a local of waist deep water on our bulkhead, with about 18 inches in storage. Won't make that mistake again.

We need the rain - bring it on! - but please keep us posted on the potential for tidal flooding regardless of development. I've found that the online charts and graphs are helpful, but may not take into consideration some details that local experts have experienced.

#110 Postby **South Texas Storms** » Mon Aug 29, 2011 6:37 pm

The 18z GFS/GFS ensembles don't look good for most of inland Texas getting much rain from this tropical disturbance.
http://www.meteo.psu.edu/ewall/ENSPCN72NE_18z/f144.html

#111 Postby **BigA** » Mon Aug 29, 2011 6:50 pm

18Z Fox WRF joins the development bandwagon, but appears to send the storm toward Louisiana.

http://weather.myfoxtampabay.com/maps/W ... f_slp.html

DGEX also aboard. Looks to form a system off the Texas coast, then stall it/slowly move it eastward.

If upper level winds are favorable, slow motion+warm water could mean an intense storm.

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/18zdgex.html

southerngale · #112 Postby **southerngale** » Mon Aug 29, 2011 7:09 pm

Here's an image I captured with my cell from KFDM News in Beaumont at 6:00 p.m. That's a ? after the word Development. He said that if something does develop, it may not move much with both High pressure systems sitting on each side of it and that he thinks it should bring us a lot of rain. (not exact words, but something like that)

#113 Postby **BigB0882** » Mon Aug 29, 2011 7:13 pm

If that is the case, it definitely wouldn't be able to move anywhere but wouldn't upper level winds be unfavorable with 2 Highs on either side? I have no education in this but it seems it would be a mess for development, is that why no one is mentioning anything too strong at this point?

ROCK · #114 Postby **ROCK** » Mon Aug 29, 2011 7:13 pm

Ivanhater wrote:True Stormcenter. However, this system originates in the Gulf so it has to hit somewhere if it develops. With the troughs the GFS keeps swinging by and the Texas ridge gone, a NE motions looks good. Just speculation at this point.

18Z GFS seems to have it in for the GOM of late...it was the first to show Irene hitting Houston... :lol:

back to the death ridge... it is on the move...as our winds have switched to South and SE...now will a high decide to give plant itself over the SE now....hmmmm we shall see...just speculating....that was a weird run....

rockyman · #115 Postby **rockyman** » Mon Aug 29, 2011 7:19 pm

It's looking more and more like New Orleans is going to be a washout over Labor Day Weekend.

ROCK · #116 Postby **ROCK** » Mon Aug 29, 2011 7:21 pm

BreinLa wrote:
gatorcane wrote:18Z GFS long-range, 372 hours:

Dang this isn't good don't wanna see that in my backyard

is that todays GFS 18z run? I just looked at it and dont see anything in the GOM other than a TD or TS....

#117 Postby **BigB0882** » Mon Aug 29, 2011 7:23 pm

That 18z GFS is definitely not from today, I want to say I saw that posted yesterday or the day before. They just quoted it today.

#118 Postby **lonelymike** » Mon Aug 29, 2011 7:29 pm

ROCK wrote:
Ivanhater wrote:True Stormcenter. However, this system originates in the Gulf so it has to hit somewhere if it develops. With the troughs the GFS keeps swinging by and the Texas ridge gone, a NE motions looks good. Just speculation at this point.

18Z GFS seems to have it in for the GOM of late...it was the first to show Irene hitting Houston...

back to the death ridge... it is on the move...as our winds have switched to South and SE...now will a high decide to give plant itself over the SE now....hmmmm we shall see...just speculating....that was a weird run....

Somebody could make serious money building a pipeline from Vermont to Tx/Oklahoma to carry all that rainwater from Irene

#119 Postby **northjaxpro** » Mon Aug 29, 2011 7:49 pm

Yeah, if any thing tries to develop in the Southern or Western GOM by this weekend, it will be drifting very slowly initally, and I mean that literally. The steering currents look to be weak in the GOM and it all comes down to if the Texas death ridge will finally retreat. If that ridge does finally loosen its summer-long grip, it should hopefully give so many in TX some critical relief in the form of tropical moisture feed coming in from the Gulf and Western Carribean. However, we have to see if that death ridge will budge by the weekend. I really hope it does! The folks in that part of the country have suffered enough through that awful drought this summer.

Ptarmigan · #120 Postby **Ptarmigan** » Mon Aug 29, 2011 7:49 pm

Will Texas be the Next Target for a Hurricane?
http://www.accuweather.com/blogs/news/s ... target.asp

Accuweather is suggesting something could brew in the tropics. Those computer models flip flop.

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