ATL: KATIA - Post Tropical - Discussion

[ROCK]

I hope the islands are keeping an eye on these model runs, because even though it's forecasted to go North of the Islands at the moment, things can change quickly

you said it....54hrs

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appc ... mageSize=M

[ROCK]

still under the ridge....at 54....islands folk better open your eyes...

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appc ... mageSize=M

[Time_Zone]

Any chance this could potentially pose a threat to Nova Scotia in the long run?

Im aware its very, very early.

Obviously very early days but the models at least hint that the set-up aloft could be condusive for a threat to E.Canada/NE States along way down the line. I think to try and pin it down any more then that this far out is probably not much use.

Thank you for the input.

[ROCK]

99 Hr...gaining some lat...but right around 15N and a little over 50W

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appc ... mageSize=M

[ROCK]

120hr this is going to be a very close call for the islands...almost to 20N 60W....


http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appc ... mageSize=M

[SouthFLTropics]

Definitely a close call for the islands...looks like a decent trough off of the CONUS though to steer it away from the states. Bermuda may take a hit though.

SFT

[SouthFloridawx]

[ROCK]

yeah she starts gaining lat at 144hr......missing the islands..

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appc ... mageSize=M

[SouthFLTropics]

Let's watch for the bend back to the west that the 11:00PM discussion was speaking about. Looks like the ridging is building to the North and West of her.

SFT

[ROCK]

Let's watch for the bend back to the west that the 11:00PM discussion was speaking about. Looks like the ridging is building to the North and West of her.

SFT

153hr....still some ridging there.....


http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appc ... mageSize=M

[blazess556]

Much weaker trough on the 00z gfs than the 18z gfs

[ROCK]

Much weaker trough on the 00z gfs than the 18z gfs

yeah the ridge builds in at 165hr....

[ConvergenceZone]

Well, the westward trend continues... That's the thing to note....

[SouthFloridawx]

That trough is much less amplified in this run.

[SouthFLTropics]

Looks like forward speed really drops off as well when it gets Northeast of the islands. Let the battle of the trough vs ridge begin!!!

OT-Check out the GOM and what the GFS has cooking there at the same timeframe.

SFT

[cycloneye]

Any deviation to the left in future runs would put the northern Leewards,Vi and PR in crosshairs.

[ROCK]

That trough is much less amplified in this run.

yep..at 177hr the ridge still there about the same as 165hr.......shes about at 23N and 62W



http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appc ... mageSize=M

[SouthFLTropics]

At 192 hours it looks like the weakness is opening and she is gaining latitude. Maybe a strike on Bermuda this run...



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[maxintensity]

trough doesnt dig as deep and it moves out faster

[SouthFloridawx]