ATL: KATIA - Post Tropical - Discussion

[Jagno]

abajan; every single time I'd click on that link my internet explorer would stop working. I finally went to tools and added the address to my "Trusted Sites". It's worked fine ever since.

[jhpigott]

What did the 00z Euro and 06z GFS do with Katia?

[tolakram]

Morning.

saved Euro



saved 6Z GFS



Once the runs are finished I enjoy looking at this page and stepping through the frames.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/

[AHS2011]

Anyone thinking category 5?

[cycloneye]

06z GFDL.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... =Animation

06z HWRF.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2. ... =Animation

[cycloneye]

SSD dvorak:

30/1145 UTC 12.0N 32.6W T2.5/2.5 12L -- Atlantic

[Buck]

Katia could end up being our highest ACE earner of the year. I think Bermuda needs to be the first to keep a watchful eye out.

[cycloneye]

Katia could end up being our highest ACE earner of the year. I think Bermuda needs to be the first to keep a watchful eye out.

Agree with you on the ACE. It will surpass by a good distance the 20.3425 that Irene got.

[SouthFLTropics]

The fact that the models have trended a bit west over their last runs is concerning...Especially for the islands and Bermuda. With that being said here in the CONUS I am still concerned because as we saw with Irene the models this far out can be way off (i.e.- Irene hitting Houston). Personally I'd much rather have the GFS and the Euro hitting my house at this range because I know it will change. Point being, a recurve is not a guarantee here and I wouldn't be suprised to see the models shift quite a bit more over the next five days. The slow down that the models show Northeast of PR is what is concerning. It makes me feel like the models don't quite have a good handle on the trough vs ridge in the long range.

SFT

[AdamFirst]

These runs are reminding me of Frances a bit. Get north of the leewards, bend back west. This is yet another waiting game.

[tolakram]

Live Loop: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... umframes=5

Latest Visible:

[DESTRUCTION5]

These runs are reminding me of Frances a bit. Get north of the leewards, bend back west. This is yet another waiting game.

Dont see any bending back west? or hint of it?

[gatorcane]

Latest guidance. It is early to know for sure, but looking on the fishy side to me.

[cycloneye]

This will not be a fish,unless she goes well east of the NE Caribbean,Bermuda and Nova Scotia.

[cycloneye]

12z Best Track

AL, 12, 2011083012, , BEST, 0, 120N, 326W, 40, 1003, TS

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 011.invest

[SouthFloridawx]

For anyone who's curious, Chrome doesn't like the security certificate because the military self-signs them. Obviously a security risk for an entity to say "Trust me, you can because I say you can!", so that's why Chrome blocks it. If you feel you can take the Navy at their word that they won't do mean things to your computer, it's fine to go ahead. You can even download the certificate to your computer and import it into your certificate library so your browser won't complain anymore.

Thanks for the tip!

[OuterBanker]

Al Roker mentioned Katia this am. Stated that a front should keep Katia from the US.

I feel so much safer now

[Aric Dunn]

Anyone else notice for the first time really this season a actual major pattern shift .... although katia seems to recurve before the switch or some respects is a apart of... towards the end of the run the GFS has a very strong bermuda high in place over the western atlantic.

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appc ... mageSize=M

[gatorcane]

This will not be a fish,unless she goes well east of the NE Caribbean,Bermuda and Nova Scotia.

Agreed. Right now model consensus is a good distance northeast of the islands and models have not shown any significant trend back towards the islands over the past couple of runs so I am gaining a little bit more confidence.

Bermuda is a very small target to hit, we won't have a better idea for at least another 3-4 days or so whether Bermuda will be a target.

Novia Scotia is far out at this point, won't have a better idea for at least 5-6 days.

[WeatherEmperor]

Anyone else notice for the first time really this season a actual major pattern shift .... although katia seems to recurve before the switch or some respects is a apart of... towards the end of the run the GFS has a very strong bermuda high in place over the western atlantic.

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appc ... mageSize=M

Aric,

I notice what you are talking about. I do agree with you that Katia may not feel this potential pattern shift in time, future systems may. For some reason, I always keep September 15th as the cut-off date for Cape Verde storms to affect the US mainland. I know it sounds silly, but the last Cape Verde system to make it all the way across so late in September was Georges in 1998. So if the pattern shift you talk about does materialize, then keep an eye out until around the 15th of Sept. Maybe I am wrong about this since I have no scientific proof to back that up but it's more of a gut feeling.