Gulf Homebrew? (Is invest 93L)

[Macrocane]

The 12z runs of the GFS and UKMET were the weakest of the global models, the others (NOGAPS, CMC, ECMWF and FIM) were stronger, let's see what the other 0z runs show.

[ROCK]

one things for sure any thing getting to the surface in the GOM has plenty of potential....very toasty out there...

[Macrocane]

It seems that PTrackerLA got the image of yesterday 0z run (look at the date) the latest 0z run shows a possible hurricane off Texas coast, and remains semistationary for a couple of days (this is in agreement with 12z runs of the Euro and FIM):

[Macrocane]

0z Canadian has nothing or at least almost nothing.

[BigB0882]

That would be a huge flooding problem. I know people need rain but not a stationary hurricane right off the coast!

[South Texas Storms]

0z Canadian has nothing or at least almost nothing.

Canadian has a weak TC moving into northern Mexico in 132 hours.

[dwsqos2]

The 0Z Euro is still pretty aggressive (development begins around hour 96; peak of 992 mb at hour 192) if farther south.

[cycloneye]

Discussion of the homebrew in GOM by Rob of Crown Weather:

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

http://www.crownweather.com/?page_id=4557

Potential Development In The Gulf Of Mexico Late This Week Into This Weekend:
I am closely monitoring an area of disturbed weather in the northwestern Caribbean that is forecast to track into the Gulf of Mexico within the next 48 hours and potentially develop into a tropical storm this weekend in the western Gulf of Mexico. All of the global model guidance are now on board with this type of scenario with the GFS model forecasting a track that slowly moves along the central and western coast of Louisiana late this weekend and then along the Texas coast as we get into Monday and Tuesday. The European model, on the other hand, forecasts that this system will track onshore into south Texas next Tuesday as a upper end tropical storm or a hurricane. The NAM model, for what its worth, forecasts that this disturbance will track into the Gulf of Mexico during the day Wednesday and develop into a tropical depression or a tropical storm by Thursday. The NAM model also forecasts that this system may develop quickly as it nears the Texas coast by this weekend.

Given the fact that we have a tropical disturbance in the northwestern Caribbean that will track into the Gulf of Mexico by Wednesday and also that environmental conditions are expected to be quite favorable in the Gulf of Mexico this weekend; I think the chances of tropical development is fairly high. The NAM model may be a little fast with the development and I foresee a scenario that this develops into a tropical storm as it nears the Texas coast on Sunday and Monday and takes advantage of the geography of the coast to create an increase in spin. Where on the Texas coast could this potential tropical storm make landfall? I am leaning towards the central and lower Texas coast given the overall synoptic setup of high pressure to the north.

What is potentially awesome news is that the Louisiana and Texas coasts may receive some much needed rainfall this coming weekend into next week. I will be monitoring this tropical disturbance over the coming days and will keep you all updated.

[dwsqos2]

The 6Z gfs is hilarious.

[GCANE]

This is looking interesting with convection at 17N 82W firing in about 20 knots of shear.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/flash-wv.html


Pretty good vorticity at 850 to 500mb and clear at 200mb.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/windmain.php?&basin=atlantic&sat=wg8&prod=vor&zoom=&time=

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/windmain.php?&basin=atlantic&sat=wg8&prod=vor3&zoom=&time=

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/windmain.php?&basin=atlantic&sat=wg8&prod=vor2&zoom=&time=

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/windmain.php?&basin=atlantic&sat=wg8&prod=vor1&zoom=&time=


However, no anticyclone overhead at the moment and rain-rate is light.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/windmain.php?&basin=atlantic&sat=wg8&prod=shr&zoom=&time=

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/htdocs_dyn_apache/PUBLIC/nexsat/thumbs/region_size/CONUS/focus_regions/NW_Atlantic/Caribbean/precip/geo_blended/20110830.1015.goes13.rain.nexsat_Caribbean.0.jpg


Watching this very closely, since this area is a powder keg.

MCS's can quickly heat up a warm-core.

[GCANE]

FIM has a good latent-heat flux forecast.


http://fim.noaa.gov/FIMscp/jsloop.cgi?d ... perimental FIM Model Fields&maxFcstLen=240&fcstStrLen=-1&resizePlot=1&domain=244&wjet=1

[KWT]

06z GFS is INSANE!!!

It sorta does about 2-3 loops then eventually shoots off to the ENE/NE given NO a decent glancing blow.

Steering currents do look light though so whilst the 06az GFS looks way overdone in that department, the idea of a Gulf TC forming is looking decent now, esp if it does keep offshore like some models are forecasting.

00z ECM gives it a solid 4 days after it forms over the Gulf waters, so the rains would be very impressive from it unless it really struggles to lift off.

[cycloneye]

Nothing yet from NHC,but I am sure they are watching the models as we are

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT TUE AUG 30 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON RECENTLY
NAMED TROPICAL STORM KATIA...LOCATED ABOUT 535 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST
OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

[PauleinHouston]

Hmmmm...coastal hugger? This has been suggested via a few models...


By paulinhouston at 2011-08-30

[Dean4Storms]

Going to need to watch this. The 06z GFS is not necessarily bunk if this system is stalled and the trough digs in the SE come next week.

[tolakram]

I hate to say it but the Euro seems to be hinting at the ridge once again forcing any storm south into Mexico.

Euro


GFS

[perk]

Let's hope the GFS has the right idea.

[underthwx]

DISCUSSION...
THIS COULD BE THE LAST DAY FOR THE HEAT ADVISORY. MAX TEMPS WILL
STILL TOP OUT IN THE MID 100S WITH UPPER 90S/LOW 100S TOMORROW.
MAX TEMPS IN THE 90S ARE THEN EXPECTED FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.
THIS MAY ALSO BE THE LAST DAY THAT MAX TEMP RECORDS WILL BE
TIED/BROKEN BUT FORECAST IS FOR MAX TEMPS AT OR BELOW RECORDS.

THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE THE EVOLUTION OF A TROPICAL
WAVE IN THE W CARIBBEAN SOUTH OF CUBA. THERE IS A LARGE DEGREE OF
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING ITS EVOLUTION AND DEVELOPMENT. OF THE
SYNOPTIC MODELS...THE NAM REMAINS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH
DEVELOPING A WEAK TROPICAL SYSTEM ON THU. THIS IS DIFFERENT FROM
PREVIOUS PROGGS WHICH SHOWED A SURGE OF TROPICAL AIR WITH PRECIP
WATER VALUES AROUND 2.5 INCHES. DUE TO THE POSSIBILITY OF
TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT...DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE DOES NOT MOVE INTO
THE REGION UNTIL THURSDAY SO BACKED OFF ON POPS WED/WED NIGHT.
THE GFS/ECMWF ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS THOUGHT BUT
AT THE SAME TIME ARE MUCH SLOWER BY ABOUT 24 HOURS TO DEVELOP A
TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE NAM DEEPENS THE CYCLONE TO AROUND 990MB ON
THE 06Z RUN DURING THE DAY FRI WHILE THE GFS/ECMWF HAVE A WEAK
DEPRESSION. THE GFS/ECMWF EVENTUALLY DEVELOP TROPICAL STORMS BUT
ARE SLOWER TO DO SO WITH VERY DIFFERENT TRACKS.
SURPRISINGLY...NONE OF THE MODELS TAKE THE SYSTEM INLAND AS A
SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE N PLAINS FRI AS WELL AS WHEN
ANOTHER STRONGER SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS SAT/SUN. UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO EXPAND THU/FRI BUT THEN RETRACT BACK OVER
THE 4 CORNERS REGION. BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF RING A COLD FRONT INTO
TX ON MONDAY WHICH SEEMS TO KEEP ANY TROPICAL SYSTEM IN THE GULF
BEFORE PUSHING INTO THE LOWER TX COAST. TO SAY THE LEAST...THERE
IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY TO THE FORECAST. THE TRACK AND
INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM LARGELY DETERMINE RAIN CHANCES AND TEMPS.
THE FORECAST HAS BACKED OFF SOME AND KEPT MAINLY 30/40 POPS FOR
MUCH OF SE TX AND HAS KEPT MAX TEMPS IN THE MID 90S. THIS PART OF
THE FORECAST WILL BE SUBJECT TO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES AND THE
DETAILS OF WHICH WILL NOT BE DETERMINED UNTIL A TROPICAL SYSTEM
FORMS AND THE MODELS CAN FULLY RESOLVE IT.

Houston morn. discussion...



The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[micktooth]

With all of this model support etc, why not a "Code Yellow"? I've seen lesser interests given a "Yellow". Thoughts anyone?

[underthwx]

With all of this model support etc, why not a "Code Yellow"? I've seen lesser interests given a "Yellow". Thoughts anyone?

wondering that myself....probabably discretion being the better part of valor....i assume they are waiting for better model consensus...i dont think it will take too long though...



The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.