Gulf Homebrew? (Is invest 93L)

[southerngale]

micktooth... perhaps because they don't expect anything to develop within 48 hours. But then again, they sometimes mention an area and only give it a 10% chance. If models persist, I'm guessing it will get a code yellow later today.

[cycloneye]

micktooth... perhaps because they don't expect anything to develop within 48 hours. But then again, they sometimes mention an area and only give it a 10% chance. If models persist, I'm guessing it will get a code yellow later today.

To add more,I can see this being a invest in the next 12-24 hours.

[tolakram]

Where is it currently?

Live Loop: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... map=latlon

[wxman57]

Agree with NHC on very low chances within 48 hrs (0-5%). Beyond 48 hrs (Fri PM/Sat), maybe 75%. That's just based on model forecasts, though, as there's nothing much to focus on except that blob of moisture in the NW Caribbean. Would be a far greater threat to land than Katia.

[Stormcenter]

Sometimes they mention (it has happened this season) disturbances that have a 0% chance of developing in the next 48 hours but they still mention them.

[vbhoutex]

From Jeff Lindner:

Gulf Tropical Threat

Another record setting day yesterday with BUSH IAH reaching 107, but big changes appear on the horizon.

Potential for tropical cyclone formation in the Gulf of Mexico late this week/this weekend with significant impacts possible on the TX coast.

Massive upper level ridge which has been over TX for months will finally be breaking down over the next 24-48 hours with a piece of the ridge moving westward into the SW US and the other piece moving eastward into the SE US leaving a weakness in the height field over TX. While this is ongoing the tropical wave currently over the western Caribbean Sea will move WNW into the Gulf of Mexico on the east side of an upper level trough axis. Surge of deep tropical moisture was expected to arrive Wednesday, but based on the latest guidance appears that it will be delayed until Thursday now, but much of this depends on how much development takes place with the tropical wave in the next 48 hours. The current thinking is that the wave will remain fairly disorganized into Thursday so this should allow at least some moisture to spread NW toward the TX coast increasing rain chances on Thursday.

Friday-Early Next Week:

Nearly all guidance now develops a tropical cyclone off the TX coast this weekend, but the models are not consistent on where and which way the system may move. The ECMWF rapidly develops a surface low off the lower TX coast and then slowly meanders the system W toward S TX over the weekend with a large circulation impacting much of the coast. The GFS develops a surface low south of Louisiana and moves the system very slowly W and WSW over the weekend only moving from SE of Lake Charles to near Freeport in 3-4 days! The CMC and UKMET both do not show significant development, although the CMC did show development on it runs yesterday and sent a system toward S TX. NAM is probably the most aggressive in bringing a strong tropical storm/weak hurricane toward the upper TX coast this weekend, but this model shows fairly quick development in the next 24 hours which seems unlikely.
Given the consistency of the forecast models to develop a closed surface low over the western Gulf of Mexico this weekend, it appears at least possible that some sort of tropical system will form. Upper level steering pattern is one of weak steering with short waves passing far enough north of TX to leave any tropical system behind and high pressure far enough east and west to be a little help also. Whatever develops will be very slow moving and possibly remain stalled off the TX coast for several days. In fact the GFS keeps the system off the TX coast into next week. Just about any motion would be possible, with the most likely at this point being a rare WSW motion along the TX coast as the models seem to be keying in on the SW US ridge being strong enough to impart a weak ENE steering low, but that flow is very weak.

Potential Impacts:

What looked like a straight forward increasing rain forecast yesterday has now had this wrench thrown into it. Depending on where the surface low actually forms and where is moves (if at all) will determine what kind of rain chances need to the carried forward this weekend. Appears the widespread wet weather late this week may need to be held off until the weekend or later depending on how the tropical system evolves. Deeper moisture should arrive Thursday and that lone along with the seabreeze should produce at least 30-40% coverage on Thursday and Friday. After that the forecast will completely hinge on the tropical system developing over the Gulf.
The modeling of this system looks similar to Frances (1998) with a large slow moving circulation taking days to move inland. Will likely need to start ramping up seas and tides in the weekend period tomorrow if models continue to show development, especially if it appears that it will be south of our area which places the upper TX coast on the onshore flow “dirty” side of things. Other than that will take the wait and see approach until guidance can come into better agreement.
Residents along the TX coast should review their hurricane plans and monitor weather forecast leading into the holiday weekend.

[underthwx]

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb_latest/dan ... testBW.gif



morning graphical depiction of possible tropical formation areas. (sorry Port)

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Portastorm]

Under ... please post a brief text description of the image you have linked to. We ask all members to include that when they post images so we all know in what context you are presenting the information. Thanks!

[Vortex]

Something tells me well find Jim Cantore "somewhere" in Texas late week/weekend..Could become quite a storm if some of the models are right...Possible long duration and time of year are abit concerning for folks along in Texas....

[lrak]

IIRC we usually have waves on Labor day. Sniff i smelll surf! I've given up on rain, we'll probably have better luck getting snow this winter.

http://www.swellinfo.com/surf-forecast/ ... texas.html

click the wave model

[bigdan35]

I think that something may try to get going in the southeast gulf thunderstorms building there.

[jhpigott]

I think that something may try to get going in the southeast gulf thunderstorms building there.

I don't see any evidence of cyclonic turning in the long range radar out of Tampa, but there is plenty of T-storm and shower activity in the SE Gulf atm.

http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.ph ... 1&loop=yes

[bigdan35]

Does anyone remember Gabrielle in september 2001.

[Aric Dunn]

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appc ... mageSize=M

[Stormcenter]

What model is this a loop of?

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller?prevPage=Model&MainPage=index&image=&page=Param&cycle=08%2F30%2F2011+12UTC&rname=SFC-LAYER+PARMS&pname=sim_radar&pdesc=&model=NAM&area=WNATL&cat=MODEL+GUIDANCE&fcast=Loop+All&areaDesc=Western+North+Atlantic+-+Southeast+US+Central+America+Caribbean&prevArea=WNATL&currKey=region&returnToModel=&imageSize=M

[Aric Dunn]

What model is this a loop of?

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller?prevPage=Model&MainPage=index&image=&page=Param&cycle=08%2F30%2F2011+12UTC&rname=SFC-LAYER+PARMS&pname=sim_radar&pdesc=&model=NAM&area=WNATL&cat=MODEL+GUIDANCE&fcast=Loop+All&areaDesc=Western+North+Atlantic+-+Southeast+US+Central+America+Caribbean&prevArea=WNATL&currKey=region&returnToModel=&imageSize=M

oh sorry.. the 12z NAM simulated radar.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Well our local BTR/NO NWS office has seemed to already jump on this. On the home page they have an arrow from the blob of storms in the southern NW part of the Caribbean moving nw into the central to NW part of the gulf. Then have the entire western gulf form the mouth of the mississippi to the TX/Mexico border highlighted showing possible developement late this week into the weekend.

[Stormcenter]

Do you have a link to that site? Thanks.

Well our local BTR/NO NWS office has seemed to already jump on this. On the home page they have an arrow from the blob of storms in the southern NW part of the Caribbean moving nw into the central to NW part of the gulf. Then have the entire western gulf form the mouth of the mississippi to the TX/Mexico border highlighted showing possible developement late this week into the weekend.

[micktooth]

Agree with NHC on very low chances within 48 hrs (0-5%). Beyond 48 hrs (Fri PM/Sat), maybe 75%. That's just based on model forecasts, though, as there's nothing much to focus on except that blob of moisture in the NW Caribbean. Would be a far greater threat to land than Katia.

With that being said, if this really starts to develop, do you think NHC would go straight to Code Red? Has this ever been done in recent years? I'm sure it has but I can't remember, I know some of you with your vast tropical memories will remember

[micktooth]

Do you have a link to that site? Thanks.

Well our local BTR/NO NWS office has seemed to already jump on this. On the home page they have an arrow from the blob of storms in the southern NW part of the Caribbean moving nw into the central to NW part of the gulf. Then have the entire western gulf form the mouth of the mississippi to the TX/Mexico border highlighted showing possible developement late this week into the weekend.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/lix/