Caribbean - Central America Weather

U.S. & Caribbean Weather Discussions and Severe Weather Events

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Forum rules

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.

Help Support Storm2K
Message
Author
User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 145327
Age: 68
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: Caribbean - Central America=Watching invest 92L in E Atl

#9921 Postby cycloneye » Mon Aug 29, 2011 5:40 am

Good morning. We are watching the progress of Tropical Depression 12.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
356 AM AST MON AUG 29 2011

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...LOW PRESSURE IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
WILL ROTATE SOUTH OF A HIGH PRESSURE NOW IN THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC EAST OF PENNSYLVANIA. THIS WILL DISPLACE THE HIGH OVER
THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC TO THE SOUTH AND A WEAK LOW OVER THE MONA
PASSAGE. THE LOW WILL WEAKEN NORTHEAST OF PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S.
VIRGIN ISLANDS LEAVING BROAD HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CARIBBEAN BY
THE WEEKEND.

AT MID LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING INTO THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN
FROM THE NORTHWEST CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL BE SPLIT BY A LOW MOVING
EAST TO A POSITION ABOUT 1150 MILES NORTHEAST OF SAN JUAN ON
WEDNESDAY. THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE BACK INTO THE NORTHEAST
CARIBBEAN LATER IN THE WEEK AND SATURDAY.

AT LOWER LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC PRESSING
AGAINST A LOW IN THE SOUTHWEST CARIBBEAN WILL MAINTAIN MODERATE
EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING WEST
NORTHWEST THROUGH THE OUTER WATERS WITH JUST A FEW SMALL SHOWERS
IN THE INNER COASTAL WATERS. SOME OF THESE ARE MOVING INLAND OVER
THE EASTERN COAST AND SPREADING VERY LIGHT AMOUNTS OF RAIN OVER LAND
IN PUERTO RICO AND THE NORTHERN U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. THIS TREND IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO MONDAY MORNING. ANOTHER BAND OF MOISTURE
AND SHOWERS WAS LOCATED ABOUT 180 MILES EAST OF SAINT MARTIN AND
GUADELOUPE AT 29/05Z...MOVING WEST AT ABOUT 20 KNOTS...AND SHOULD
ARRIVE IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AROUND 14-15Z AND IN PUERTO RICO
AFTER 18Z WITH AN INCREASE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY. HIGH PRESSURE AT
MID AND LOWER LEVELS APPEARS TO BE REDUCING THE FULL EFFECT OF THE
WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW SUCH THAT SHOWER ACTIVITY IS NOT AS STRONG.
NEVERTHELESS GOOD MOISTURE...MORE HEATING DUE TO LESS CLOUD COVER
AND EAST WINDS WILL INCREASE SHOWER ACTIVITY ON MONDAY OVER WHAT
WAS SEEN ON SUNDAY.

ON MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY MODELS ARE SHOWING MODEST BANDS OF
MOISTURE IN EAST TO EAST SOUTHEAST FLOW THAT WILL CONTINUE THE
NEARLY CLIMATOLOGICAL PATTERN OVER THE AREA. FLOW IN THE LOWER
LEVELS THEN BECOMES MORE SOUTHERLY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE RETREATS TO THE NORTHEAST AND LOW PRESSURE AT LOWER
LEVELS DEVELOPS IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS WILL BRING A PERIOD
OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NORMALLY EXPERIENCED AT
THIS TIME OF THE YEAR.

BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS ARE COMPLICATED BY THE DEPICTION
OF A HURRICANE THAT COMES WITHIN 600 MILES OF SAN JUAN NEXT MONDAY
OR TUESDAY. THIS SYSTEM HAS DRAWN STEADILY CLOSER TO THE LOCAL
AREA IN SUCCESSIVE MODEL RUNS SINCE THE MODELS FIRST BEGAN TO
RESOLVE IT ABOUT 60 HOURS AGO. THE LOW PRESSURE IT DEVELOPS FROM IN
THE MODEL SOLUTIONS IS BEING WATCHED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER SOUTH OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS AND HAS BEEN GIVEN A NEAR
100 PERCENT CHANCE OF DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

&&

.AVIATION...FEW PASSING -SHRA WILL AFFECT PARTS OF THE E-SE COASTAL
SECTIONS OF PR AND PARTS OF THE VI. HOWEVER...VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL
ACROSS ALL TAF SITES TIL AFT 29/12Z. FM 29/17-29/22Z...MVFR CONDS
CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS WRN AND CENTRAL PR DUE TO ISOLD-SCT SHRA AND
TSRA. EXPECT MTN OBSCURATIONS AFT 28/17Z IN PR. LOW LVL WND WILL BE
MAINLY FM SE AT 5 TO 15 KTS UP THROUGH 18K FT.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS WILL REMAIN 5 FEET OR LESS UNTIL SUNDAY. WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN 20 KNOTS WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING AFTER
MID WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 89 78 89 78 / 30 20 20 20
STT 89 79 89 80 / 40 30 30 20
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 145327
Age: 68
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: Caribbean - Central America=Watching TD Twelve in E Atl

#9922 Postby cycloneye » Mon Aug 29, 2011 6:14 am

This mornings discussion by Rob of Crown Weather.

http://www.crownweather.com/?page_id=4557
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
Gustywind
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 12334
Joined: Mon Sep 03, 2007 7:29 am
Location: Baie-Mahault, GUADELOUPE

#9923 Postby Gustywind » Mon Aug 29, 2011 7:09 am

News from Martinica concerning the big troubles of the algae...

FRANÇOIS

Algae: 100 mobilized youth
Interview by R. f. France-Antilles Martinique27.08.2011
:rarrow: http://www.microsofttranslator.com/bv.a ... 123665.php

(R. f. / France-West Indies)

The magnitude of the scourge, they will benefit from a seasonal contract and will start work as early as Monday. Invasion of algae Sargassum on several beaches of the Atlantic coast of Martinique is the centre of the issues of the local communities because the nuisance it creates for the population and the environment.

So together with the AB strategy, institutional and private partners area association has implemented an emergency operation aimed at the removal of these algae on the ratings affected by this phenomenon.

To complete this large-scale project, the association thus recruited with the assistance of the local missions of the North, Centre and South of the island, 100 young some of which are job-seekers.

Originating from the different communes, they were all gathered yesterday at the Hall of the city of François, for a briefing, in the presence of the Mayor of the commune, Maurice Antiste, of the first Vice-President of the Regional Council, Catherine Conconne, the President of the commission on sustainable development of transport and the energy of the region, Daniel Chomet, elected representatives of the cities of Sainte-AnneMarin, Vauclin, diamond, Robert, Trinidad and Sainte-Marie.

The medicine of the work and health professionals were also present at this meeting to respond to the concerns of each and the other to the phenomenon.

In the immediate future, these young people will benefit from a revolving seasonal contract depending on the extent of the scourge. But term association is planning to include in a cycle of training on the valorization and protection of the environment on jobs related to careers in the environment.

The region engages in extensive operation of removal of algae Sargassum. (R. f. / France-West Indies)

(R. f. / France-West Indies)

Region, health care professionals and municipalities together urgently to implement an operation of collecting algae which abound coastal.... (R. f. / France-West Indies)


-1 100 euros net

The François meeting was organized in 48 hours. Three local missions attended. 100 young people were in the Hall of François to attend.

Young people will receive salary calculated on the basis of the hourly Smic with 130 monthly hours. They affect about 1 100 euros net. The first week, they will be allocated EUR 200 and will have the balance at the end of the month. The occupational medicine has made arrangements to move to the faster their medical visit.

These young people, who will begin work as early as Monday, will be shared by groups of 20. They have bread on the plate, knowing that to Dizac diamond not less than 80 tonnes of algae were removed in a single day.


-"Why I said yes.

100 young people have enrolled for this mission of martinican coastal clean-up. To the question what are your motivations? The reasons are various and can surprise by their commitment.

"Why I said yes. Inactivity is burdensome. I bear more to stay there to do nothing to make. Then when the local mission I was offered the job, I jumped at the chance, as it is in the general interest. "So we said this young.

Next to him, another adds: "it is true that there is a salary to the key, but we have seen in the media, and I know of people who are hindered by the smells." I do it to help the population, for me, for us. We are all affected and we do so. »

On the other side, same sound Bell on youth: "So far, there has been initiatives taken, but it should be in the long term, the evidence once cleaned beaches, algae return." Then we will take our courage in both hands, because if it is not we who will be? We are in some kind of super heroes. »

"It's a way for us, young François to show another image of youth." We are often criticized, but nou pa de o Franswa crazy bug. »
0 likes   

User avatar
Gustywind
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 12334
Joined: Mon Sep 03, 2007 7:29 am
Location: Baie-Mahault, GUADELOUPE

#9924 Postby Gustywind » Mon Aug 29, 2011 7:16 am

The storm Irene over the Canada, 18 deaths and billions of damage in the United States
AFP29.08.2011
:rarrow: http://www.microsofttranslator.com/bv.a ... 123775.php

Life has slowly resumed its course Sunday night in New York, largely spared by the storm tropical Irene who made at least 18 people were killed throughout the East Coast. -Emmanuel Dunand (AFP)


Irene storm was Monday over the Canada but weakened after ravaged the northeast of the United States where it has been 18 deaths and damage estimated at $ 7 billion, while sparing largely New York.

Relegated to the status of post-tropical cyclone, Hurricane declined again intensity on the night of Sunday to Monday, with winds of 85 km/h, according to the national Centre of hurricanes (NHC) in Miami.

But the NHC warned Sunday against "severe flooding in some parts of the Northeast", and the President Barack Obama has warned that it would take "weeks to recover".

"The impact of this storm will be felt for some time." "Areas may be deprived of electricity for days," added the US President.

Irene killed 18 during its passage on the coast East of the United States and five other previously to the Caribbean.

The storm then affected hard Southeast of Quebec and the Atlantic provinces of the Canada denying current nearly 200,000 homes.

But New York, where 370,000 people had been evacuated, has been largely spared.

The amount of damage in the United States, a time estimated at tens of billions of dollars, was revised downward.

It could reach five to seven billion dollars, of which 1.5 to 3 billion covered by insurance, said the Los Angeles Times on Monday Jose Miranda, Director of the Eqecat, specializing the disaster risk management.

"I think that the damage is less severe than that it was feared, and that the economic impact will be less than what people have predicted," added to the log Mark Zandi, Moody's Analytics research centre economic Manager.

As early as Sunday evening, life has slowly resumed its course to New York.

Three major airports, closed as a precaution, were to reopen Monday, announced the Administration of the U.S. civil aviation (FAA). Closed Saturday caused the cancellation of some 10,000 flights during the weekend.

Mayor Michael Bloomberg, who ordered Friday the evacuation of 370,000 New Yorkers and stopped all public transport, the never seen for the city of 8 million people, said Sunday that he was "not dead or injured".

It lifted the evacuation order, but the New Yorkers were preparing to a logistical nightmare Monday, or always suspended public transport.

Streets were flooded in the bottom of Manhattan in Queens and Brooklyn. On Coney Island, famous for its amusement parks, a wave even almost win a car.

The mayor said that about an astounding 62 homes were deprived of electricity.

Until the entire system is verified, no resumption date was given for public transit. "It will be hard," acknowledged Mr. Bloomberg. Five million people use public transport every day in New York.

But the Mayor, whose decisions had transformed Saturday evening New York City dead - bars, restaurants, shows and closed stores, added that if it again, he would resume the same decisions, "to protect human lives".

Wall Street, the New York Stock Exchange, planned to open at the usual time Monday.

US Open of tennis organizers also plan to begin competition as expected at 15 H 00 GMT.

According to a final balance sheet, Irene caused the death of at least 18 people, with the death of four more people in Pennsylvania, including two campers killed by falling trees. Six others were killed in North Carolina, State where the storm had hit the Earth Saturday.

A man there including was killed by the fall of a tree, and a 15-year-old girl was killed in a car accident, the traffic lights functioning more.

Eleven-year-old child was also killed by the fall of a tree in Virginia, and neighboring Maryland, a woman was killed by the collapse of a chimney.

In New Jersey Governor Chris Christie has reported two deaths.

1 Million people had evacuated coastal areas of that State. Many were allowed to return home Sunday.

In total, Irene has resulted in the evacuation of nearly two million people and as many subscribers have been deprived of electricity in Washington, Maryland, Virginia and North Carolina.
0 likes   

User avatar
Macrocane
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4218
Age: 36
Joined: Sun May 24, 2009 5:35 pm
Location: El Salvador

Re: Caribbean - Central America=Watching TD Twelve in E Atl

#9925 Postby Macrocane » Mon Aug 29, 2011 11:30 am

Yesterday temperatures in Central America:
-Near normal lows in all the region.
-Cooler than normal highs in Panama, warmer than normal in Guatemala and near average in the rest of the countries.

Minimum Temperatures
Belize city, Belize 24°C (75°F)
Mountain Pine Ridge, Belize 20.6°C (69.1°F)
Guatemala city, Guatemala 16°C (61°F)
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 11.2°C (52.2°F)
Zacapa, Guatemala 23°C (73°F)
San Salvador, El Salvador 19.9°C (67.8°F)
Las Pilas, El Salvador 13.2°C (55.8°F)
San Miguel, El Salvador 22.5°C (72.5°F)
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 17°C (63°F)
La Esperanza, Honduras 13°C (55°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 24°C (75°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 25°C (77°F)
Jinotega, Nicaragua 19°C (66°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 18.4°C (65.1°F)
Liberia, Costa Rica 23.1°C (73.6°F)
Irazu volcano, Costa Rica 5.5°C (41.9°F)
Panama city, Panama 22.3°C (72.1°F)
Boquete, Panama 14.1°C (57.4°F)

Maximum Temperatures
Belize city, Belize 31°C (88°F)
Mountain Pine Ridge, Belize 28.6°C (83.5°F)
Guatemala city, Guatemala 27°C (81°F)
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 24.8°C (76.6°F) Warmest since May 26
Zacapa, Guatemala 34°C (93°F)
San Salvador, El Salvador 29.7°C (85.5°F)
Las Pilas, El Salvador 23.0°C (73.4°F)
San Miguel, El Salvador 34.0°C (93.2°F)
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 29°C (84°F)
La Esperanza, Honduras 25°C (77°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 33°C (91°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 33°C (91°F)
Jinotega, Nicaragua 26°C (79°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 28.4°C (83.1°F)
Liberia, Costa Rica 31.2°C (88.2°F)
Irazu volcano, Costa Rica 16.0°C (60.8°F)
Panama city, Panama 29.6°C (85.3°F)
Boquete, Panama 22.1°C (71.8°F)
0 likes   

User avatar
Macrocane
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4218
Age: 36
Joined: Sun May 24, 2009 5:35 pm
Location: El Salvador

Re: Caribbean - Central America=Watching TD Twelve in E Atl

#9926 Postby Macrocane » Mon Aug 29, 2011 2:09 pm

Heavy rains were registered yesterday afternoon and night in Guatemala and El Salvador, the intenes rains were widespread and not isolated or scattered as in other occassions this year. There were floods in Guatemala including the capital that affected 1400 people, in El Salvador there were some road flooding but not as serious as in Guatemala. Some of the accumulations:

Guatemala
Guatemala city 67 mm/2.64 inches
Retalhuleo 53 mm/2.09 inches
Coban 39 mm/1.54 inches

El Salvador
Ataco 104 mm/4.09 inches
Santa Ana 90 mm/3.54 inches (Rainiest day of the year)
Güija 80 mm/3.15 inches
Perquin 75 mm/2.95 inches
El Salvador International Airport 75 mm/2.95 inches
San Salvador 38 mm/1.50 inches
0 likes   

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 145327
Age: 68
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: Caribbean - Central America=Watching TD Twelve in E Atl

#9927 Postby cycloneye » Mon Aug 29, 2011 3:41 pm

5 PM track.

Image

Saved image.
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 145327
Age: 68
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: Caribbean - Central America=Watching TD Twelve in E Atl

#9928 Postby cycloneye » Mon Aug 29, 2011 10:17 pm

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1036 PM AST MON AUG 29 2011

.UPDATE...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FAR NORTHEAST OF THE ISLANDS WILL
MAINTAIN MODERATE TRADE WIND SPEEDS THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH A
DECREASE IN WINDS IN STORE FOR THE WEEKEND. A PULSE OF MOISTURE
COMBINED WITH THE PROXIMITY OF AN UPPER LOW WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA
WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
REGIONAL WATERS AND WINDWARD AREAS DURING OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE POPS
WERE INCREASED AND THE GRIDS WERE TWEAKED SLIGHTLY TO INCREASE
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE. MORE STABLE AND DRIER TRADE
WIND WEATHER WILL RETURN TO THE REGION WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...PASSING SHRA WILL AFFECT PARTS OF THE EAST COASTAL
SECTIONS OF PR AND PARTS OF THE USVI FROM TIME TO TIME. THERE
WILL BE A MID TO HIGH CHANCE OF A PERIOD OR TWO OF MVFR CONDS
AT TNCM/TKPK AND TIST/TISX DUE TO OVERNIGHT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY.
SURFACE WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE EAST AT 15 KNOTS OR LESS.
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 145327
Age: 68
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: Caribbean - Central America=Watching TD Twelve in E Atl

#9929 Postby cycloneye » Mon Aug 29, 2011 10:19 pm

11 PM track:

Image

Saved image.
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 145327
Age: 68
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: Caribbean - Central America=Watching TD Twelve in E Atl

#9930 Postby cycloneye » Tue Aug 30, 2011 5:19 am

Tropical Storm Katia forms

Dr. Rick Knabb, and Kevin Roth, The Weather Channel

Aug 30, 2011 4:53 am ET


- The depression over the far eastern Atlantic Ocean has been upgraded to Tropical Storm Katia.

- Katia is forecast to become a hurricane this week, but too soon to determine if any land areas will eventually be affected.

- Computer models are in excellent agreement that Katia should move north of the Leeward Islands over the weekend.

- However, that is a long way off and the forecast could change, so interests in the Leeward Islands should check back for future updates on Katia.

ATLANTIC BASIN

- Tropical Depression 12 was upgraded to Tropical Storm Katia this morning well southwest of the Cape Verde Islands.

- No threat to land for the next several days.

- Very likely to become a hurricane later this week, possibly Wednesday night or Thursday.

- Could reach the longitude of the Leeward Islands this weekend; while most models forecast the cyclone to pass north of the Leeward Islands, direct impacts there cannot yet be ruled out.

- While tropical depressions that initially form this far east have a greater chance of curving back out to sea before reaching the U.S., that is not yet certain to occur in this case.

- Too soon to determine what other land areas might eventually be affected.
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 145327
Age: 68
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather=Watching TS Katia

#9931 Postby cycloneye » Tue Aug 30, 2011 5:24 am

5 AM Track.

Image

Saved image.
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 145327
Age: 68
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather=Watching TS Katia

#9932 Postby cycloneye » Tue Aug 30, 2011 5:31 am

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
458 AM AST TUE AUG 30 2011

.SYNOPSIS....SYNOPSIS...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL
ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE AS THE DOMINANT SYNOPTIC FEATURE ACROSS THE
REGION DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...PRODUCING A MODERATE EASTERLY
TRADE WIND FLOW ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW JUST
WEST OF THE REGION THIS MORNING...WILL PROVIDE SOME INSTABILITY TO
INDUCE THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PERSISTED OVERNIGHT AND
EARLY THIS MORNING MAINLY ACROSS THE SURROUNDING COASTAL WATERS. FEW
OF THEM AFFECTED THE EASTERN...SOUTHEASTERN AND NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
PUERTO RICO AS WELL AS VIEQUES...CULEBRA AN THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS.
THIS SURGE OF MOISTURE WAS ENHANCED BY AN UPPER LEVEL LOW JUST WEST
OF THE REGION. FOR THIS AFTERNOON...THIS MOISTURE IN COMBINATION
WITH DAYTIME HEATING...LOCAL ISLANDS EFFECTS AND GOOD UPPER LEVEL
DYNAMIC WILL PROMOTE THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
BUT MAINLY ACROSS WESTERN AND INTERIOR SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO.
HOWEVER...NO WIDESPREAD OF SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FOR
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EVENT ARE FORECAST
TO AFFECT THE LOCAL REGION. IN FACTS PWAT VALUES WILL REMAIN NEAR
2.00 INCHES FOR TODAY...DECREASING WELL BELOW 2.00 INCHES FOR THE
NEXT FEW DAYS.

AS 5 AM AST...TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE WAS UPGRADED TO TROPICAL
STORM KATIA. KATIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE
31.7 WEST. KATIA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NORTHWEST NEAR 17 MPH.
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH SOME INCREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. GLOBAL COMPUTER MODELS
SUGGEST THAT THE CENTER OF THIS SYSTEM...POSSIBLY AS A
HURRICANE...WILL PASS WELL NORTHEAST OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS DURING
THE FIRST WEEK OF SEPTEMBER...REPRESENTING A HAZARD TO THE MARINE
COMMUNITY. STAY TUNED.

&&

.AVIATION...QUICK PASSING -SHRA WILL AFFECT PARTS OF THE NORTH AND
E-SE COASTAL SECTIONS OF PR AND PARTS OF THE VI TIL AT LEAST 30/12Z.
VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TAF SITES FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
HOWEVER FM 30/18-30/22Z...MVFR CONDS PSBL WITH DIURNAL CONVECTION
MAINLY WRN AND CENTRAL PR DUE TO ISOLD-SCT SHRA AND TSRA. MTN OBSCR
IN SOME AREAS DUE TO PASSING SHRA AND LOW CLDS BTW 30/06Z-30/12Z OVR
ERN INTERIOR OF PR...AND OVR WEST INTERIOR SECTIONS OF PR DURG THE
AFTN. LOW LVL WND WILL BE MAINLY FM E AT 5 BLO 20K FT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 89 78 89 78 / 30 20 20 20
STT 89 80 89 79 / 40 20 20 30
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 145327
Age: 68
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather=Watching TS Katia

#9933 Postby cycloneye » Tue Aug 30, 2011 9:44 am

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM KATIA ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122011
1100 AM AST TUE AUG 30 2011

...KATIA SLOWLY STRENGTHENING OVER THE EASTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.3N 33.4W
ABOUT 630 MI...1010 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KATIA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 33.4 WEST. KATIA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH...30 KM/H...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 45 MPH...75
KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. CONTINUED GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS
FORECAST...AND KATIA IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE BY LATE
WEDNESDAY OR EARLY THURSDAY.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

11 AM Track

Image

Saved image.
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
Macrocane
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4218
Age: 36
Joined: Sun May 24, 2009 5:35 pm
Location: El Salvador

Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather=Watching TS Katia

#9934 Postby Macrocane » Tue Aug 30, 2011 11:42 am

Yesterday temps in Central America:
-Near normal lows in all the region.
-Cooler than normal highs in parts of Guatemala, in El Salvador, Honduras and Panama. Near normal highs in the rest of the region.

Minimum Temperatures
Belize city, Belize 26°C (79°F)
Mountain Pine Ridge, Belize 21.8°C (71.2°F)
Guatemala city, Guatemala 17°C (63°F)
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 10.5°C (50.9°F)
Zacapa, Guatemala 23°C (73°F)
San Salvador, El Salvador 19.7°C (67.5°F)
Las Pilas, El Salvador 12.7°C (54.9°F)
San Miguel, El Salvador 22.6°C (72.7°F)
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 18°C (64°F)
La Esperanza, Honduras 15°C (59°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 23°C (73°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 23°C (73°F)
Jinotega, Nicaragua 19°C (66°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 16.0°C (60.8°F)
Liberia, Costa Rica 22.3°C (72.1°F)
Irazu volcano, Costa Rica 6.0°C (42.8°F)
Panama city, Panama 24.2°C (75.6°F)
Boquete, Panama 12.9°C (55.2°F)

Maximum Temperatures
Belize city, Belize 31°C (88°F)
Mountain Pine Ridge, Belize 29.2°C (84.6°F)
Guatemala city, Guatemala 23°C (73°F)
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 21.3°C (70.3°F)
Zacapa, Guatemala 35°C (95°F)
San Salvador, El Salvador 28.3°C (82.9°F)
Las Pilas, El Salvador 21.2°C (70.2°F)
San Miguel, El Salvador 32.7°C (90.9°F)
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 27°C (81°F)
La Esperanza, Honduras 22°C (72°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 31°C (88°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 30°C (86°F)
Jinotega, Nicaragua 26°C (79°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 27.9°C (82.2°F)
Liberia, Costa Rica 30.0°C (86.0°F)
Irazu volcano, Costa Rica 14.4°C (57.9°F)
Panama city, Panama 30.3°C (86.5°F)
Boquete, Panama 22.5°C (72.5°F)
0 likes   

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 145327
Age: 68
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather=Watching TS Katia

#9935 Postby cycloneye » Tue Aug 30, 2011 2:16 pm

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
259 PM AST TUE AUG 30 2011

.SYNOPSIS...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL
CONTINUE TO PRODUCE A MODERATE EASTERLY TRADE WIND FLOW ACROSS THE
REGIONAL WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY. UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL
LINGER NORTHEAST OF THE AREA. TROPICAL STORM KATIA WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS WITH THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE
WESTERN INTERIOR AND WEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO THIS
AFTERNOON...AS AVAILABLE MOISTURE COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING
AND OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH NEAR SUNSET.
NO OVERALL CHANGES IN THE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT FEW DAYS...AS A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUED DOMINATING
THE LOCAL REGION. PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO
AFFECT THE REGION DURING THE WEEKEND AND MORNING HOURS...AND
SHOWERS WITH THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON MAINLY
ACROSS THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL.

THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KATIA WAS LOCATED ACROSS THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC THIS AFTERNOON. KATIA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST
NEAR 18 MPH...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR
THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS WERE NEAR 45 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
CONTINUED GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST...AND KATIA IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE BY LATE WEDNESDAY OR EARLY
THURSDAY. IS TOO EARLY TO KNOW IF THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE ANY IMPACTS
ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS
TJBQ THROUGH AT LEAST 30/22Z. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ELSEWHERE
TONIGHT. WINDS WILL CONTINUE EAST AT 10 TO 15 MPH.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 78 88 78 89 / 20 20 20 20
STT 78 89 79 89 / 20 20 30 30
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 145327
Age: 68
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather=Watching TS Katia

#9936 Postby cycloneye » Tue Aug 30, 2011 3:50 pm

Hey Leeward folks.The 5 PM cone touches the extreme NE part.

Image

Saved image.
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
Gustywind
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 12334
Joined: Mon Sep 03, 2007 7:29 am
Location: Baie-Mahault, GUADELOUPE

Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather=Watching TS Katia

#9937 Postby Gustywind » Tue Aug 30, 2011 5:20 pm

cycloneye wrote:Hey Leeward folks.The 5 PM cone touches the extreme NE part.

http://img850.imageshack.us/img850/8381 ... w5nlsm.gif

Saved image.

Thanks to keep us informed Cycloneye. Let's continue to keep an eye on in case of.
0 likes   

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 145327
Age: 68
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather=Watching TS Katia

#9938 Postby cycloneye » Tue Aug 30, 2011 9:52 pm

There is good news as the 11 PM track was moved to the right and away from the islands.But we have to see if the track gets closer later on.

Image

Saved image.
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 145327
Age: 68
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather=Watching TS Katia

#9939 Postby cycloneye » Wed Aug 31, 2011 5:35 am

Good morning. We continue to watch Katias track to see if it gets closer or not to the NE Caribbean islands.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
541 AM AST WED AUG 31 2011

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...A STRONG UPPER LOW ABOUT 1150 MILES
NORTHEAST OF SAN JUAN WILL DRIFT WEST WHILE DISSIPATING DURING THE
WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN WILL BUILD EAST
SOUTHEAST UNTIL A RING OF HIGH PRESSURE AROUND TROPICAL CYCLONE
KATIA SPREADS OVER THE AREA FROM THE EAST OVER THE WEEKEND.

AT MID LEVELS...A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE HOLDS OVER THE
GREATER ANTILLES UNTIL KATIA PASSES TO THE NORTHEAST MONDAY
AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE RE-BUILDS INTO THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN ON
WEDNESDAY AND THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...INCLUDING PUERTO RICO AND
HISPANIOLA THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY OF NEXT WEEK.

AT LOWER LEVELS...MODERATE TRADE WINDS FROM THE EAST SOUTHEAST
WILL BE MAINTAINED BY HIGH PRESSURE IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC UNTIL
SATURDAY WHEN TROPICAL CYCLONE KATIA MOVES BETWEEN THE HIGH AND
THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. HIGH PRESSURE RE-BUILDS INTO THE AREA
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MIMIC PRODUCT SHOWS A BAND OF HIGHER PRECIPITABLE
WATER MOVING JUST NORTH OF PUERTO RICO FOLLOWED BY DRIER AIR.
SOUNDER SHOWS A BLIP OF MOISTURE BUT PRECIPITABLE WATER OVER SAN
JUAN REMAINS AROUND 1.6 INCHES. RADAR SHOWS SMALL SHOWERS WITH
VERY BRIEF HEAVY RAIN OVER THE CARIBBEAN AND ATLANTIC WATERS
AROUND EASTERN PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS MOVING WEST
NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 16 KNOTS. A FEW OF THESE HAVE MOVED ONSHORE
DURING THE MORNING HOURS. ALTHOUGH THE BEST MOISTURE MAY MOVE OUT OF
THE AREA AND BE REPLACED BY SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR...EXPECT SOMEWHAT
SIMILAR CONDITIONS TO YESTERDAY WHERE HEAVY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED OVER THE INTERIOR WESTERN AND CENTRAL
PORTION OF PUERTO RICO CREATING LOCAL URBAN AND SMALL STREAM
FLOODING DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

AS TROPICAL CYCLONE KATIA DRAWS CLOSER AND STRENGTHENS INTO A
HURRICANE...PERHAPS AS EARLY AS TODAY...IT WILL INDUCE A RIDGE AHEAD OF
ITSELF IN THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC THAT WILL MOVE TOWARD PUERTO RICO
CAUSING LOWER LEVEL WINDS TO BECOME MORE SOUTHEASTERLY. AT THE
SAME TIME MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH. THIS WILL ALLOW A
SHIFT IN THE FOCUS OF STRONG CONVECTION OVER PUERTO RICO AND
WARMER TEMPERATURES ALONG THE NORTH COAST...INCLUDING SAN JUAN.
EXPECT LOWER 90S IN THE SAN JUAN METRO AREA AND PERHAPS ARECIBO BY
THE END OF THE WEEK. AT THIS TIME KATIA IS EXPECTED TO PASS
NORTHEAST OF PUERTO RICO AS A HURRICANE BY MORE THAN 600
MILES...BEING CLOSEST AFTER NOON ON MONDAY. MODELS SHOW DRIER AIR
THROUGH TUESDAY...AT LEAST...WITH RAIN BANDS NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA AND LIGHT WINDS AS THE COL SOUTHWEST OF KATIA MOVES NEAR
PUERTO RICO. ALTHOUGH AIR IS DRIER THIS MAY FAVOR LOCAL CONVECTION
OVER PUERTO RICO OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN DUE TO CONVERGENCE AND
SOME THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOONS DURING THE WEEK NEXT WEEK.

THE EXISTENCE OF KATIA AND THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK AND THE
MOISTURE AROUND THE SYSTEM MEANS THAT RESIDENTS IN THE AREA WILL
NEED TO REMAIN VIGILANT SHOULD KATIA ADOPT A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK
OR RAIN BANDS EXTEND FARTHER SOUTHWEST THAN EXPECTED. OTHERWISE...THE
ONLY HAZARDOUS EFFECTS FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
REPRESENTED BY THIS FORECAST SCENARIO ARE INCREASED SEAS IN WATERS
WHERE NORTH AND NORTHEAST SWELL CAN PENETRATE.

AFTER THE PASSAGE OF KATIA...A RETURN TO SOMEWHAT DRIER CONDITIONS APPEARS
TO BE SUSTAINED UNTIL THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WITH SHOWERS INCREASING
THROUGH SATURDAY OF NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER TROPICAL CYCLONE IN MUCH
THE SAME TRACK AS KATIA IS INDICATED BY THE GFS CROSSING 40 WEST FRIDAY
NIGHT OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TAF
SITES TIL 31/17Z. AFT 31/17Z...MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP IN WESTERN AND CENTRAL PUERTO RICO IN SCT SHRA AND ISOLD
TSRA...AFFECTING TJMZ AND TJBQ. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE UNTIL
31/12Z. AFT 31/12Z...WINDS WILL BE MAINLY EASTERLY AT 10 TO 20 KTS
FROM THE SFC TO 20 KFT.

&&

.MARINE...CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS UNTIL HIGHER SEAS ENCROACH ON THE ATLANTIC
WATERS TO THE NORTHEAST FROM TROPICAL CYCLONE KATIA ON SATURDAY. SEAS IN
THE ATLANTIC AND POSSIBLY PARTS OF THE CARIBBEAN OPEN TO THE NORTH
AND NORTHEAST WILL REMAIN HIGH UNTIL AROUND TUESDAY WITH CURRENT
FORECAST TRACK OF KATIA.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 88 77 89 78 / 20 20 20 20
STT 89 78 89 79 / 20 30 30 20
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 145327
Age: 68
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather=Watching TS Katia

#9940 Postby cycloneye » Wed Aug 31, 2011 10:04 am

11 AM track.

Image

Saved image.
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here


Return to “USA & Caribbean Weather”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: TeamPlayersBlue and 19 guests