ATL: KATIA - Post Tropical - Discussion

[KWT]

Yeah I agree Aric looks like its starting to really wrap up nicely at the moment, suspect its well on its way to becoming a hurricane already.

[cycloneye]

As stated by Aric,organizing very fast. The white line is the 5 AM advisory forecast track.

[jhpigott]

As stated by Aric,organizing very fast. The white line is the 5 AM advisory forecast track.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/temp/movie.gif

Hard to tell the exact location of the LLC, but it sure looks like the MLC is south of the forecast position - closer to 11.7 or 11.8 N

[painkillerr]

[quote="cycloneye"]As stated by Aric,organizing very fast. The white line is the 5 AM advisory forecast track.

Do you notice a movement a bit more to the west?

[cycloneye]

As stated by Aric,organizing very fast. The white line is the 5 AM advisory forecast track.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/temp/movie.gif

Hard to tell the exact location of the LLC, but it sure looks like the MLC is south of the forecast position - closer to 11.7 or 11.8 N

To let you know that I took off the img tags. Yes,MLC is south of 12N.

[ConvergenceZone]

Yep, since it's forecasted to strengthen so quickly I will go with recurve...Had it remained a wave for a few more days, I would think that it would get into the carib, but not going to happen now....

Just keep in mind, it's very normal and likely for storms to recurve that form this far east, so it shouldn't be suprising to any of us...

[Aric Dunn]

As stated by Aric,organizing very fast. The white line is the 5 AM advisory forecast track.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/temp/movie.gif

Hard to tell the exact location of the LLC, but it sure looks like the MLC is south of the forecast position - closer to 11.7 or 11.8 N

To let you know that I took off the img tags. Yes,MLC is south of 12N.

its very possible that the LLC is also down there or will migrate to the deeper convection. doing some center fixes with the curved bands.. I actually have the center farther south very near the MLC.

[canes04]

Looks like shes moving due west. Most models have this moving wnw at this point.
all we can do is watch.

[Blown Away]

It does look a little S of the NHC track and any S relocations could bring Katia closer to the NE caribbean, but hard to deny the big hole in the ridge near 65W.

[Sanibel]

A weak Bermuda High has saved us this year in Florida.

[cycloneye]

000
WTNT42 KNHC 301432
TCDAT2

TROPICAL STORM KATIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122011
1100 AM AST TUE AUG 30 2011

EAST-NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR OVER KATIA HAS DECREASED AND THE STORM
CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED. THE BANDING
FEATURES ARE BETTER DEFINED AND THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER HAS BECOME
EMBEDDED WITHIN A SMALL CENTRAL CONVECTIVE OVERCAST. UPPER-LEVEL
OUTFLOW IS ALSO BECOMING MORE PROMINENT. DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATES RANGE FROM 35 TO 45 KT SO THE CURRENT WIND SPEED IS SET
AT 40 KT. WITH WEAKENING SHEAR AND SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES JUST
BELOW 28 DEG C...KATIA SHOULD CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AND WILL
LIKELY BECOME A HURRICANE IN 36 HOURS OR SO. THE OFFICIAL
INTENSITY FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE HFIP MODEL CONSENSUS...WHICH
SHOWS KATIA NEARING MAJOR HURRICANE STATUS BY THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS A SLIGHTLY FASTER 285/16. NOT MUCH CHANGE HAS
BEEN MADE TO THE TRACK FORECAST. KATIA IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. LATER IN THE FORECAST
PERIOD...THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO BE APPROACHING A
WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE CREATED BY A TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. THIS SHOULD CAUSE KATIA TO BEGIN TO TURN TOWARD THE
NORTHWEST WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
LIES A LITTLE NORTH OF THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS THROUGH 48
HOURS AND IS VERY CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 30/1500Z 12.3N 33.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 31/0000Z 13.0N 35.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 31/1200Z 13.8N 39.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 01/0000Z 14.6N 42.4W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 01/1200Z 15.4N 45.7W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 02/1200Z 17.0N 51.5W 85 KT 100 MPH
96H 03/1200Z 19.0N 55.5W 95 KT 110 MPH
120H 04/1200Z 21.5N 59.5W 100 KT 115 MPH

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

[Airboy]

I guess NHC realy realy don't want this to come too close to the east coast and force them to issued warnings for the east coast so soon after Irene.

[cycloneye]

Saved image.

[jhpigott]

NHC has this up at 12.3N

That looks to be almost .5 degree too far to the north

[jhpigott]

12Z GFS should start running here in about 20 minutes

[Evil Jeremy]

I guess NHC realy realy don't want this to come too close to the east coast and force them to issued warnings for the east coast so soon after Irene.

I'm sure the NHC never wants a threat to aproach te east coast, but they are only following what the guidence suggests. Their cone isn't based on their wants for saftey.

[RL3AO]

We see it a lot with these cape verde systems that the models keep moving further and further west almost every run. Could be another case.

[HurricaneWarning92]

Latest guidance. It is early to know for sure, but looking on the fishy side to me.

http://img62.imageshack.us/img62/1218/storm12.gif

Very classic CV storm in the making(size/strength). Classic path as well...IMO, I think it stays well NE of the Leeward islands. Residents of Bermuda and Nova Scotia certainly want to keey an eye on it.

https://my.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/image ... orm_12.gif

No significant changes but some of the GFS ensembles bring it to the East Coast.

The BAMS take it on a west to wsw track at the end of the run...

[dwsqos2]

An ASCAT pass at 1116Z placed the center between 11N and 12N and around 33W.

[RL3AO]

Guys can we try not to have images in your quoted post. Makes it easier for people with dial...um, smart phones.