ATL: KATIA - Post Tropical - Discussion

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caribepr
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#661 Postby caribepr » Tue Aug 30, 2011 11:12 am

From a friend of mine on Culebra:

Katia my dear,
I'm just not ready for a visit yet.. I know your headed this way, but I am just not over Irene.. I think you should head north, that way nobody gets hurt.. I've met this new girl Sunny 8-) and I want her to hang around for a while.. I fear you would scare her away.. Warmest regards, Matty
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#662 Postby Aric Dunn » Tue Aug 30, 2011 11:18 am

only difference at 102 hours is that the trough of the east coast is weaker and almost lifted out.
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#663 Postby blazess556 » Tue Aug 30, 2011 11:18 am

Bermuda high and subtropical high almost look they are about to bridge.
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Re:

#664 Postby Jevo » Tue Aug 30, 2011 11:20 am

Aric Dunn wrote:only difference at 102 hours is that the trough of the east coast is weaker and almost lifted out.


120 its starting to get interesting....
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Re:

#665 Postby jhpigott » Tue Aug 30, 2011 11:21 am

Aric Dunn wrote:only difference at 102 hours is that the trough of the east coast is weaker and almost lifted out.


Yep. Looks like the highs are about to bridge. Rest of the run should be "interesting".
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#666 Postby gatorcane » Tue Aug 30, 2011 11:22 am

Looks like there is narrow ridging setting up now in the Western Atlantic on this 12Z run, probably aligning with the ECMWF now...

Looks like another case where the GFS breaks down the ridge too quickly and now shifting to the ECMWF solution in the long-range.
Last edited by gatorcane on Tue Aug 30, 2011 11:22 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Re:

#667 Postby HurricaneWarning92 » Tue Aug 30, 2011 11:22 am

Jevo wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:only difference at 102 hours is that the trough of the east coast is weaker and almost lifted out.


120 its starting to get interesting....


oh Gosh...
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Re: Re:

#668 Postby Aric Dunn » Tue Aug 30, 2011 11:22 am

Jevo wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:only difference at 102 hours is that the trough of the east coast is weaker and almost lifted out.


120 its starting to get interesting....


yep.. more ridging moving off east coast and extends farther north.. trough over great lakes is flatter.
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#669 Postby Jevo » Tue Aug 30, 2011 11:23 am

Switched to 12hr updates

12z GFS +132

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Had to post this.... +138 broke the server

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12z GFS +144

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Last edited by Jevo on Tue Aug 30, 2011 11:26 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: KATIA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#670 Postby Countrygirl911 » Tue Aug 30, 2011 11:24 am

can we clearly say that this thing is not going to get into the GOM we are already watching a little area in the gulf that our local mets are saying could form but not for certain it will they are just watching it.
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#671 Postby mf_dolphin » Tue Aug 30, 2011 11:25 am

That's the kind of interesting I can do without :-)
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Re: ATL: KATIA - Models

#672 Postby SouthFLTropics » Tue Aug 30, 2011 11:26 am

Once again she slows to a crawl...I don't think that is plausible with a ridge camped out overhead. It should be westward ho at a moderate clip if that's the case. I don't think the GFS has a good handle on the long range setup yet.

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Re: ATL: KATIA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#673 Postby Jimsot » Tue Aug 30, 2011 11:27 am

Blown Away wrote:It does look a little S of the NHC track and any S relocations could bring Katia closer to the NE caribbean, but hard to deny the big hole in the ridge near 65W.



Since the 'hole' 'weakness' is at 65W and I am at 63W will it 'feel it' before getting to 63W because I really am not to keen on another Earl which kept going west last year until it was to late for us on Anguilla.
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#674 Postby DESTRUCTION5 » Tue Aug 30, 2011 11:28 am

This is a complete flip from 00Z with absolutely no trough off the E coast...WTH?
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#675 Postby Aric Dunn » Tue Aug 30, 2011 11:29 am

at 144 hrs where the 6z started turning the 12z has not yet. still heading wnw.. so far
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Re: ATL: KATIA - Models

#676 Postby cycloneye » Tue Aug 30, 2011 11:29 am

A little south than the 00z as is almost at 20N-60W,while at 00z it was around 22N-60W.
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#677 Postby canes04 » Tue Aug 30, 2011 11:30 am

Oh crap, not liking this run. As we know things will change.
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#678 Postby Jevo » Tue Aug 30, 2011 11:31 am

12z GFS +156 (moving now.. still camping that low off of Louisana)

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12z GFS +168 (Low going to Texas... :lol: )

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Last edited by Jevo on Tue Aug 30, 2011 11:34 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: KATIA - Models

#679 Postby SFLcane » Tue Aug 30, 2011 11:34 am

Ready to make the turn? There just isn't enough ridgeing to drive this westward. Eventually one of the trofs of the many this season will get it.
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#680 Postby Aric Dunn » Tue Aug 30, 2011 11:35 am

ummm no recurve... ?? pretty far off right now.. and ridging extending to the east coast..


12z
Image

6z
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